Welcome to American Weather
  • Announcements

    • Wow

      BOARD UPGRADE   07/13/2016

      As you have noticed, the board has been given a major upgrade.  There are still currently a lot of processes running in the background to complete the upgrade so expect some slow periods.  If you come across any errors, please feel free to post in the Forum Info forum to let us know.  IMPORTANT: YOU MUST LOGIN WITH YOUR DISPLAY NAME.  LOGIN NAMES ARE NO LONGER USED TO LOGIN. Thanks for your patience today!
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0
OKpowdah

Next week's storm, Changes, Snow threats beyond (Part 2)

1,125 posts in this topic

[quote name='SnowGoose69' timestamp='1326057097' post='1256192']

In this relatively flat pattern it will be hard to get anything that cuts west, [b]this meridional flow is exactly what we want or weak disturbances, [/b]as you said though as soon as you start running something too strong its going to cut into the Oh Valley.
[/quote]


This is true, but again.,.where does it set up? If it sets up close by, and any system tries to get a little energetic...it's congrats Vim Toot.

I might be wrong, but I think we could get some SWFE here, and I don't think it would be all that dry. Some may be, but any little s/w that wants to dig, will have the gulf to their own, with high pressure just off the se coast.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='CT Rain' timestamp='1326057202' post='1256197']

Yeah by the end. I just don't see a whole lot of interest in the D7-D10 or even a bit beyond. I guess I'm just a bit frustrated that we finally got the pattern to change and we're not going to have a whole lot to show for it.
[/quote]

Eh, you never know. Something around the 18th and 21 looked interesting. Didn't look too dry.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
A southern stream like an El Niño? Well, at times during this first half of winter we did have one, but for the most part it is much less defined. But going forward on the ECMWF suite, there are two stj waves of interest. Not what I would call a lack of a southern stream.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='CoastalWx' timestamp='1326057325' post='1256201']


This is true, but again.,.where does it set up? If it sets up close by, and any system tries to get a little energetic...it's congrats Vim Toot.

I might be wrong, but I think we could get some SWFE here, and I don't think it would be all that dry. Some may be, [b]but any little s/w that wants to dig, will have the gulf to their own,[/b] with high pressure just off the se coast.
[/quote]

Yeah I think you're right... it's just going to take a while to get there and I'm not sure how long we'll have this pattern to work with.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Even on the 21st, the EC ensembles have the trough going negative..this far out. I don't think that would be dry, and may have a boost from the Gulf.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='okie333' timestamp='1326056624' post='1256146']
Then how can there be a "gradient pattern", especially in the East? When the Arctic air verifies, a lack of a SE ridge screams suppression, far from a gradient.
[/quote]

Sans the SE Ridge, which is very un-Nina ish I think you've hit the nail on the head on why the gradient will fail. Surpression or depression.

If Jerry were willing, I'm almost ready to make a bet of 1" or less at Logan into 2/1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='CT Rain' timestamp='1326057470' post='1256211']

Yeah I think you're right... it's just going to take a while to get there and I'm not sure how long we'll have this pattern to work with.
[/quote]

I'm still concerned with the track in the next 2-3 weeks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='CoastalWx' timestamp='1326057384' post='1256204']

Eh, you never know. Something around the 18th a[b]nd 21 looked interesting[/b]. Didn't look too dry.
[/quote]

Yeah that date's been on the radar for a bit.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='CoastalWx' timestamp='1326057531' post='1256217']
Even on the 21st, the EC ensembles have the trough going negative..this far out. I don't think that would be dry, and may have a boost from the Gulf.
[/quote]

Congrats powderfreak?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='CT Rain' timestamp='1326057583' post='1256221']

Yeah that date's been on the radar for a bit.
[/quote]


But I do see what you mean. You don't want s/w's too strung out in "ruler" flow. I just think they'll have a chance to pick up some moisture and amplify a bit.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='CoastalWx' timestamp='1326057701' post='1256230']


But I do see what you mean. You don't want s/w's too strung out in "ruler" flow. I just think they'll have a chance to pick up some moisture and amplify a bit.
[/quote]

Yeah I do think down the road they will. At least the initial look is pretty ugly with a zonal flow and little room for amplification. After D12 I think there's more opportunity for amplification at least the way the Euro Ens look now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='SnowGoose69' timestamp='1326058037' post='1256240']
Basically we want to look towards Texas and see this...

[url="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1994/us0209.php"]http://www.meteo.psu...1994/us0209.php[/url]
[/quote]

That look is possible with the two modeled southern stream features. Check out my main forum post/thread about the eastward displaced Walker/Hadley Cell; pretty cool stuff.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='SnowGoose69' timestamp='1326058037' post='1256240']
Basically we want to look towards Texas and see this...

[url="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1994/us0209.php"]http://www.meteo.psu...1994/us0209.php[/url]
[/quote]

lol now that's a gradient pattern

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
With the PV and possible extension into the Midwest, the pattern potentially could not look far off from that. I'm NOT saying something like that, but I could see a rather elongated, but long lasting low like that somewhere over the nrn tier.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='CT Blizz' timestamp='1326058979' post='1256270']
I kind of like it when it's Ryan on his own little dry island against the rest of the mets
[/quote]

lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='CT Blizz' timestamp='1326058979' post='1256270']
I kind of like it when it's Ryan on his own little dry island against the rest of the mets
[/quote]

But I do see his point. We may start out with weak systems.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='CT Blizz' timestamp='1326058979' post='1256270']
I kind of like it when it's Ryan on his own little dry island against the rest of the mets
[/quote]

I think many people, especially you, have exceptionally unrealistic expectations. Yes the pattern is changing but it's not exactly an awesome pattern.

I would not be surprised if we wind up with very little snow from this pattern change.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='CoastalWx' timestamp='1326059056' post='1256274']

But I do see his point. We may start out with weak systems.
[/quote]


At this point, just some light advisory events would be good. We have to get some snow pack down across the region...even to our west to start feeding back on this air masses in the low levels. It makes a difference.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='CoastalWx' timestamp='1326059056' post='1256274']

But I do see his point. We may start out with weak systems.
[/quote]

We are in agreement with the 1/21 system... I think that's worth watching.

Unfortunately beyond 1/21 there's no guarantee we keep a semi-favorable pattern. This winter just sucks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='okie333' timestamp='1326056624' post='1256146']
Then how can there be a "gradient pattern", especially in the East? When the Arctic air verifies, a lack of a SE ridge screams suppression, far from a gradient.
[/quote]

Upper level flow is fairly zonal, separating a cold airmass to the north from a warm airmass to the south over a short distance ... definition of a gradient. The orientation doesn't matter ... it's still a gradient pattern. There doesn't have to be a SE ridge present.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.