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Next week's storm, Changes, Snow threats beyond (Part 2)


OKpowdah

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Then how can there be a "gradient pattern", especially in the East? When the Arctic air verifies, a lack of a SE ridge screams suppression, far from a gradient.

Sans the SE Ridge, which is very un-Nina ish I think you've hit the nail on the head on why the gradient will fail. Surpression or depression.

If Jerry were willing, I'm almost ready to make a bet of 1" or less at Logan into 2/1

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But I do see what you mean. You don't want s/w's too strung out in "ruler" flow. I just think they'll have a chance to pick up some moisture and amplify a bit.

Yeah I do think down the road they will. At least the initial look is pretty ugly with a zonal flow and little room for amplification. After D12 I think there's more opportunity for amplification at least the way the Euro Ens look now.

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I kind of like it when it's Ryan on his own little dry island against the rest of the mets

I think many people, especially you, have exceptionally unrealistic expectations. Yes the pattern is changing but it's not exactly an awesome pattern.

I would not be surprised if we wind up with very little snow from this pattern change.

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But I do see his point. We may start out with weak systems.

At this point, just some light advisory events would be good. We have to get some snow pack down across the region...even to our west to start feeding back on this air masses in the low levels. It makes a difference.

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Then how can there be a "gradient pattern", especially in the East? When the Arctic air verifies, a lack of a SE ridge screams suppression, far from a gradient.

Upper level flow is fairly zonal, separating a cold airmass to the north from a warm airmass to the south over a short distance ... definition of a gradient. The orientation doesn't matter ... it's still a gradient pattern. There doesn't have to be a SE ridge present.

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I think many people, especially you, have exceptionally unrealistic expectations. Yes the pattern is changing but it's not exactly an awesome pattern.

I would not be surprised if we wind up with very little snow from this pattern change.

Huh??? 1-2 inches south of pike tomorrow night..and then 2 systems on the EC Ens.. 16th and 21st

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Huh??? 1-2 inches south of pike tomorrow night..and then 2 systems on the EC Ens.. 16th and 21st

You're joking, right?

No snow besides maybe a flurry at the coast tomorrow night... I don't see much at all on the 16th... the 21st could be interesting but we'll see.

You are actually becoming irritiating.

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At this point, just some light advisory events would be good. We have to get some snow pack down across the region...even to our west to start feeding back on this air masses in the low levels. It makes a difference.

Yeah that's fine by me as well. I kind of miss the 2-4" deals.

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