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The 2012-2013 Winter Outlook Thread


eyewall

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I've been getting winter fever the last few days. So bad, I've been watching videos on youtube of storm coverage of "Snowmaggedon" from a news station in PA. I hope the weak-moderate Nino brings us good fortune this winter. The inch of snow we got in February isn't the two cold and snowy winter previous to this past winter.

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So far the El Nino appears to be setting up east-based, which is warmer for the Southeast than a cold west-based El Nino (two years ago). However a lot can change between now and December. Appears the very streaky AO/NAO is trending negative in summer after that very positive winter. If it holds negative for nine months that would be a cooler signal. If the AO/NAO goes back positive, and it stays an east-based El Nino, I'd go with near normal or even slightly above normal temps. Almost anything will be colder than last winter. I'm just not bulled up about another 2010 or 2011. I'm thinking above normal rainfall either way, but only average snow if east-based El Nino. Though average does not match up with 2010 or 2011, it would be a whole lot better than last winter. Cheers!

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So far the El Nino appears to be setting up east-based, which is warmer for the Southeast than a cold west-based El Nino (two years ago). However a lot can change between now and December. Appears the very streaky AO/NAO is trending negative in summer after that very positive winter. If it holds negative for nine months that would be a cooler signal. If the AO/NAO goes back positive, and it stays an east-based El Nino, I'd go with near normal or even slightly above normal temps. Almost anything will be colder than last winter. I'm just not bulled up about another 2010 or 2011. I'm thinking above normal rainfall either way, but only average snow if east-based El Nino. Though average does not match up with 2010 or 2011, it would be a whole lot better than last winter. Cheers!

There have been quite notable quite cold exceptions to the east vs. west guideline: 1976-7 and 1969-70. Also, 1965-6 was

somewhat cold.

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I've been getting winter fever the last few days. So bad, I've been watching videos on youtube of storm coverage of "Snowmaggedon" from a news station in PA. I hope the weak-moderate Nino brings us good fortune this winter. The inch of snow we got in February isn't the two cold and snowy winter previous to this past winter.

I have been too, been watching the coverage of 1993 blizzard by james spann!

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I'd really like to go back and watch some old storm coverages for various events...where are you finding them? thanks in advance for any guidance you can offer!

I've been getting winter fever the last few days. So bad, I've been watching videos on youtube of storm coverage of "Snowmaggedon" from a news station in PA. I hope the weak-moderate Nino brings us good fortune this winter. The inch of snow we got in February isn't the two cold and snowy winter previous to this past winter.

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Found this nugget of info from Will in the NE Forum:

Some El Ninos that were 3.4 centered just crudely looking through the SST anomaly maps:

1991-1992

1986-1987

1987-1988

1977-1978

1957-1958

2009-2010 was close, but I'd call it Nino 4 centered.

There's a couple of damn good winters for the western carolinas on that list.

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Found this nugget of info from Will in the NE Forum:

Some El Ninos that were 3.4 centered just crudely looking through the SST anomaly maps:

1991-1992

1986-1987

1987-1988

1977-1978

1957-1958

2009-2010 was close, but I'd call it Nino 4 centered.

There's a couple of damn good winters for the western carolinas on that list.

Yep very good for the mountains. Some great discussion up there in the NE forum with Will, Scott, and Larry and others up there.

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I'd really like to go back and watch some old storm coverages for various events...where are you finding them? thanks in advance for any guidance you can offer!

Just searching on youtube. There are quite a few for the big end of January 2010 snowstorm and mid Feburary snowstorm 2010 from WCNC and WSOC.

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I really hope this winter is better than last winter. Getting any measurable snow this time around would make it miles better. I can't get over the bad taste left in my mouth and the wasted hours of sleep being a weenie thinking, "Oh it'll trend better for us, it did it the year before." from last winter." :arrowhead: I'm glad I recorded and uploaded some news clips from the January 9-10, 2011 Snowstorm on Youtube. I could have done the same for the February 12, 2010 Snowstorm, I'm not sure why I didn't though.

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I really hope this winter is better than last winter. Getting any measurable snow this time around would make it miles better. I can't get over the bad taste left in my mouth and the wasted hours of sleep being a weenie thinking, "Oh it'll trend better for us, it did it the year before." from last winter." :arrowhead: I'm glad I recorded and uploaded some news clips from the January 9-10, 2011 Snowstorm on Youtube. I could have done the same for the February 12, 2010 Snowstorm, I'm not sure why I didn't though.

Is it even POSSIBLE for a winter to be worse than last winter ? I can't think of how it could be any worse...

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Also, I like to go back and read the observations from the Christmas storm and January storm following it. Reliving all the snow is wonderful after such a terrible winter.

Maybe, but I can spend all night remembering the best sex of my life and I would still end up going to bed horny.

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