andyhb

Ohio has literally been the most active state for tornadoes this year. Please read more and post less, you're clogging the thread.

You're also applying recency bias to this whole discussion and assuming that's going to carry over for 4/25-28. IMO the character (and also background climatology) of this sequence is different, substantially so, than other events that have "underperformed" earlier this year. Already, the moisture quality for tomorrow looks much better than 4/15 in a similar area. The other big factor that could really set Saturday off is the lack of influence from the sub-tropical jet, which is shunted southward by the passage of the first shortwave on Thursday/Friday. That likely removes a number of caveats that have affected other events this year detrimentally.

I'm going to tell you right now that that's probably a mistake on Thursday.

Going to need a dedicated thread somewhere/anywhere for the 4/25-28 potential severe sequence. 00z model runs in so far are rather alarming.

Looks like a fairly large tornado here near Barr IL.

Tornado trying to form on the west side of DVN right now.

https://livestormchasing.com/chasers/brett.adair Tornado was in progress on this stream.

Cell in far SE IA looks poised to produce a sig tor.

Couple of supercells emerging on the southern end of the line for the tri-state area. Those are probably the main show down south.

Tornado in progress on this stream NW of DMX.

This first round has been notably cellular especially south of the IA/MO state line.

18z Euro was very impressive for tomorrow and probably worthy of a MDT risk. Gives ample time to destabilize with 300+ m2/s2 0-1 km SRH becoming common along a 50 kt LLJ over SE IA, NE MO, and far W IL by 21z. Signal is for a discrete/semi-discrete band of cells along the arcing Pacific front/dryline with better lapse rates thanks to CAA aloft closer to the primary upper low. There are a number of larger synoptic N MO/IA events that looks like this one at 500 mb (5/27/1995, 4/8/1999, 3/31/2023, 4/11/2001 amongst them), and the dryslot in the mid levels as 700-500 mb, which is absolutely paramount for these types of events, looks pretty potent. I also noticed that most of the CAMs, despite different evolutions, ended up with robust cells with strong UH across some portion of the region, both at 12z and 18z.

CIPS analogs are absolutely jacked for Tuesday in the Mid Mississippi Valley. Going to be pending convection from Monday I'm sure, but the setup seems to be there for a significant and potentially widespread event.

Tuesday also looks like a potentially significant severe event over AR and MO primarily depending on what occurs overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Very strong flow with the ejecting wave and a substantial dryslot aloft to aid in renewed destabilization. Additionally there appears to be a diffuse Pacific front/dryline pushing east.