bubba hotep

What an epic bust for DFW... Looks like no rain at all.

Looks like 1st couple of attempts failed. You can see the orphaned anvils racing off to the SE on the newest sat images.

I tried to keep it going through the lame excuse for a winter that we had I've mostly been posting elsewhere lately or just randomly on Twitter. With that said, the cap is still in place but things do look a bit concerning, esp for hail. I hate hail! The CAMs started giving hints yesterday that the main threat might shift south towards DFW today. Then the overnight run of the NCAR ensembles seemed to confirm that. Now to see what happens.

That Atlantic sst configuration should result in another season of the MDR being a dead zone, if things don't flip back warm. I'll take +PDO/-AMO with ENSO transitioning to positive any summer!

What are you getting a masters in? I've been kicking around the thought of going back to finish my PhD.

These events have been popping up a lot so far in '17. Next Sunday to Tuesday could be another multi day event covering portions of this sub forum.

Ha! I do remember telling you in a site mail that we were going to score. I'm trying to make the best of this trip to New Mexico. There were some snow showers today but I had to climb up above 8k ft to find them but the views are always worth it. Even though the snow showers weren't much there was snow on the ground up higher

I'm still holding out hope for the last week of Feb into 1st of March. Was it two years ago that our whole winter was basically two weeks at the end of Feb? One small system then a nice winter storm. I'll have to go back and look.

Cool, I'll take a look tonight. I've kind of been kicking around '09 as an analog for the upcoming summer and then on into fall, esp. if the QBO switches. Winter '09/10 was Nino, weak +PDO, with a QBO switch during the summer. I'll have to do some more digging but Nino with -QBO has historically been a pretty good combo for Texas.

Maybe the PV will breakdown and help out? But my understanding, that probably won't contribute to blocking until later on in Feb or March? The MJO progression certainly supports a glancing blow of cold, if you buy that the atmospheric response to Nina is rapidly fading.

I also remember seeing some stuff posted showing SSW were less likely during +QBO or they occurred much later in the winter.

Euro weeklies continue the theme of basically saying winter is over. At least if looks active moving towards March, maybe an early and active svr wx season.

The more I look at the QBO the more it appears to be playing a major role in the pattern. The wet California look is very +ENSO like but is also common during +PDO/+QBO winters. However, most +PDO/+QBO winters are also +ENSO, so the -ENSO is a bit of an oddity. I'm thinking that the +PDO/+QBO helps accelerate the atmospheric response to warming ENSO? The current run of +PNA looks a lot more like last winter than this winter and it looks to relax but then come back strong.

The MJO is quickly propagating and the torch is on for Texas. Maybe it will swing all the way round back to Phase 1 - 3 and we see some cooler weather by the end of Feb or March but climo starts working against us fast by then.

Snow reaching the ground in San Angelo