downeastnc

Ukie....and this is 10:1 probably do better than that even.....

Need to see this slow down just a little bit more, the 6Z GFS spitting out insane ratios for PGV....we get 3" in 3 hrs with .11" QPF....just a few more hrs of that and we would be golden.... assuming of course the GFS has this right....the GFS is so close to this being a much bigger deal. 220122/0500Z 47 36011KT 24.0F SNOW 19:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057 10:1| 3.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.37 100| 0| 0 220122/0600Z 48 36010KT 23.8F SNOW 23:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.061 12:1| 5.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.43 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 220122/0700Z 49 36012KT 23.6F SNOW 13:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.053 12:1| 5.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.48 100| 0| 0

While this sucks for a lot of people this is exactly what we down here in eastern NC like to see in this range.....better cold and not phased and hope for a late bloomer, than watching it amp up and cut and give us rain again....its how we snow big, a lot can still change between now and Friday, and the NAM is all alone right now with this big of a whiff.

Need that SN/IP line to drift another 50 miles south to really make me feel safe....insane 22 at the surface......

The models had Florence turning out well east of Bermuda.....every system is different but yeah models were very wrong with Florence even up to landfall there were fairly significant changes.....

This chaser looks to be trying to drive into the eye from Houma

HRRR bullish on winds. usually I take these maps with a grain of salt but with the high offshore packing the gradient and dry air working in around the S and SE side who knows...maybe some 40-50 mph gust are possible for 3-4 hrs tomorrow....

Yeah might get some gust into the low 40's certainly nothing to extreme...nice that it seems to peak between 4-9 tomorrow afternoon and not 12-4 am like usual.

Well then

70/63 at PGV.....gonna be interesting to see how it plays out today.....had some filtered sun a hr ago back to overcast.....sat looks like some more filtered sun possible in a hr or two around peak heating.....

Looks like EF2-3 type damage.....some fairly new homes look to be wiped to the foundation almost....

This is pretty darn good agreement....

Yeah this is a insane panel.....with that low strength and placement you wouldnt think the warm nose is that strong.....its showing 23/24 IMBY with the snow/rain line slam back in the mts.....