powderfreak Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I skied Mad River Saturday. Amazing how much snow can collect in the mountains while the valleys get just a few inches. Looking at the webcam it looks like they were able to hold on to a lot of it too. It may actually be beneficial to have a solid layer underneath any new snow that comes our way. Since most of what fell was so fluffy, we needed a little 'base building' material. Now bring on the orographic machine! Its hard to call any rain event, beneficial, but I whole-heartedly agree with you. We needed some sort of firm snow above the ground layer to form a rock-solid base. The fluff was fun, but it was sketchy skiing. What's happening right now is also good... there's already a fresh coating of wet snow on top of the cooling snowpack. Its always a lot better to get snowfall during the transition time when the snowpack is freezing into a glacier, as it allows the falling snow to bond to the wet surface under it. It is much better than having a flash freeze with no snow, where the snowpack just freezes into an icy glacier, and its nearly impossible for any new upslope to bond to that frozen layer. This way, with snow falling now as the snowpack locks up, there should be a more gradual transition between the new snow and glacial ice underneath... instead of a snowpack that's made up of a solid ice-pack with fairy dust on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 2" of rain from this event. Temperature is holding at 47F. Awaiting the cold air to my west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Those earlier gfs runs looked nice and juicy out at d8-9. That storm is totally gone from the 12z run. Maybe that's a good thing a week out? I certainly consider it a fine deal for it to be suppressed on the GFS at this time range. I do want to see the Euro get back on board now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Still about 50 in Maine (HUL/PQI/CAR tops with 54), though the heaviest rain has departed the GYX CWA. IMBY we had 1/2" snow 10A-3P yest, then 2.2" rain; nothing but brown ground. The warmth and rain thawed the top 1/2" or so of our gravel road, and my 2WD spun a bit on the way out this morning. We get this "slime effect" each spring, but then it all thaws and smooths out. Now we may be looking at ruts-under-snow (when we get snow) for the winter. Yay! Saw puddles in fields this AM where I've never before seen them - hvy rain plus frozen soil. Our logging contractor on Andover West Surplus was flattening the waterbars on the winter-only road system last week, preparing for startup. Doppler radar shows that area having gotten about 4" and probably no more than the 1st 1/4" LE was frozen. Hope the Thurs/Fri cold put sufficient frost in the roads to prevent serious soil movement. Those earlier gfs runs looked nice and juicy out at d8-9. That storm is totally gone from the 12z run. Maybe that's a good thing a week out? Well, At this point, I would rather see it OTS then showing another cutter, Seems like it locks on to cutters and they never move east, At least there is room for this to come back west, We shall see..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Steady snow... 32F. Coating of new snow so far at 1,500ft. A buddy just called me and said it is now snowing down in Stowe village at 800ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I certainly consider it a fine deal for it to be suppressed on the GFS at this time range. I do want to see the Euro get back on board now. We will see shortly........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Well, At this point, I would rather see it OTS then showing another cutter, Seems like it locks on to cutters and they never move east, At least there is room for this to come back west, We shall see..... Agreed there... once it shows rain, it never goes back to snow. But if it shows no snow, it can always trend back towards snow. But its true, for whatever reason, once models see a cutter, it never moves back east. However, a storm going out to sea can always come back in later model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Agreed there... once it shows rain, it never goes back to snow. But if it shows no snow, it can always trend back towards snow. But its true, for whatever reason, once models see a cutter, it never moves back east. However, a storm going out to sea can always come back in later model runs. And, once it shows snow, it can always go to HEAVY HEAVY snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Agreed there... once it shows rain, it never goes back to snow. But if it shows no snow, it can always trend back towards snow. But its true, for whatever reason, once models see a cutter, it never moves back east. However, a storm going out to sea can always come back in later model runs. More so this year it seems, There has not been so far to many favorable solutions other then in the 10 day window, Where we would of had a 40" snowpack by now if all of those solution produced..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 And, once it shows snow, it can always go to HEAVY HEAVY snow. Yeah, We just need to get it to show snow inside of 5 days......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitywave Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Those earlier gfs runs looked nice and juicy out at d8-9. That storm is totally gone from the 12z run. Maybe that's a good thing a week out? yes, the d7 threat is still out there, has support in one form or another from half of the GFS ensemble members, and the GGEM has a 976 bomb in the GOM at the same timeframe as the 0z GFS did last night. all of these solutions are game-on for you DownEasters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 yes, the d7 threat is still out there, has support in one form or another from half of the GFS ensemble members, and the GGEM has a 976 bomb in the GOM at the same timeframe as the 0z GFS did last night. all of these solutions are game-on for you DownEasters At least we can have the discussion, and that's nice to hear while I'm viewing the puddles and continuing rain from my office window. Thought all the serious rain was NE of here, but another patch came in from the south and expanded noon-1:30. CAR up to 55 at 1 PM. I think their Dec record is 58, in 1950 - probably out of reach, as nowhere else nearby has gotten that mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Here on the UVM campus in Burlington, the rain changed over to snow at roughly 11:40 A.M. While it's been snowing here in Burlington, it hadn't been sticking, but as of 2:00 P.M. it's starting to accumulate here at UVM. Cars, grassy surfaces. etc. have now got a good coating on them in the 1/4" to 1/2" range, although paved surfaces are still just wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 At least we can have the discussion, and that's nice to hear while I'm viewing the puddles and continuing rain from my office window. Thought all the serious rain was NE of here, but another patch came in from the south and expanded noon-1:30. CAR up to 55 at 1 PM. I think their Dec record is 58, in 1950 - probably out of reach, as nowhere else nearby has gotten that mild. I see some late nights this week model hugging, Euro has us pretty close to e SECS taken verbatium on todays 12z, We could use a 100 mi shift west and it would be game on, And it is also inside day 10 as well........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Snowing steadily down in Stowe village... pavement on parking lots has turned white again and there's a fresh accumulation on the old snow and cars. I just drove around town running some errands and wow is there a big difference in snow-on-the-ground around this town. I still have around 4" on the ground and fairly solid snow cover in this neck of the woods (exceptions being under large evergreens and in wind-swept areas around buildings and such). However, there's like absolutely no snow left over near Shaws Supermarket and out on Mayo Farm Rd and RT 100 heading towards Morrisville. In the actual village center (blinking red light) there isn't even solid snow cover... but then driving up the Mountain Road snow increases pretty quickly and there's solid snow from the Alpine Mart on up. Will post some pics in a little bit, but overall, it seems as though proximity to Mansfield is more relevant than elevation right now. Even the high spots up in the Hollow looked pretty bare from what I could tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Pretty cool wind profile right now out of BTV.... low level NNW winds up to roughly 5,000ft and then above that its out of the exact opposite direction SSE. Nice moisture advecting northward from the SE, overrunning the low level upslope flow. Pretty cool to see... And radar shows this well with moisture increasing from the SE, but returns becoming concentrated in the NW low level flow upslope regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Just saw this recent update at the BTV site, and it has some fun comments: .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 152 PM EST MONDAY...NO HUGE CHANGES IN THE OVERALL EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE A SEMI-PERSISTANT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE LOCKED INTO PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. WITHIN THE TROUGH PATTERN, IT LOOKS LIKE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE IN, DEVELOP INTO STRONGER CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS AND THEN GET KICKED OUT A COUPLE OF DAYS LATER AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COMES IN. IN THE END, IT WILL MEAN FOR US AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUDY, SEASONABLY COLD, AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DAY AFTER DAY. HUNG CLOSE TO GRIDDED MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS - WHICH WAS SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGY. SO LOOKING AT 30-40% POPS EACH DAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, THOUGH HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS, AND CLOSER TO 20% IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. LOW/MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL ENSURE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE DAY AFTER DAY. I`LL BE THE FIRST TO ADMIT THAT PERHAPS 100% POPS SHOULD BE PAINTED IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN EACH DAY, BUT COULDN`T QUITE DO IT THIS FAR OUT. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS SCENARIO THERE WILL LIKELY BE A TIME OR TWO OF A MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EVENT AS THOSE CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS SPIN UP AND AFFECT THE AREA. MAY ALSO SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO STREAM INTO NORTHERN NY AT TIMES. HOWEVER, THE TIMING OF THOSE PARTICULAR SITUATIONS IS WAY TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT, SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT. REGARDLESS, WITH THIS KIND OF PATTERN, I EXPECT SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE FAVORED WEST/NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES FOR THE PERIOD. YES, WE AGAIN MAY MEASURE IN FEET IN SOME HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS LIKE MT MANSFIELD AND JAY PEAK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Just saw this recent update at the BTV site, and it has some fun comments: .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 152 PM EST MONDAY...NO HUGE CHANGES IN THE OVERALL EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE A SEMI-PERSISTANT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE LOCKED INTO PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. WITHIN THE TROUGH PATTERN, IT LOOKS LIKE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE IN, DEVELOP INTO STRONGER CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS AND THEN GET KICKED OUT A COUPLE OF DAYS LATER AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COMES IN. IN THE END, IT WILL MEAN FOR US AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUDY, SEASONABLY COLD, AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DAY AFTER DAY. HUNG CLOSE TO GRIDDED MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS - WHICH WAS SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGY. SO LOOKING AT 30-40% POPS EACH DAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, THOUGH HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS, AND CLOSER TO 20% IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. LOW/MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL ENSURE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE DAY AFTER DAY. I`LL BE THE FIRST TO ADMIT THAT PERHAPS 100% POPS SHOULD BE PAINTED IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN EACH DAY, BUT COULDN`T QUITE DO IT THIS FAR OUT. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS SCENARIO THERE WILL LIKELY BE A TIME OR TWO OF A MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EVENT AS THOSE CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS SPIN UP AND AFFECT THE AREA. MAY ALSO SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO STREAM INTO NORTHERN NY AT TIMES. HOWEVER, THE TIMING OF THOSE PARTICULAR SITUATIONS IS WAY TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT, SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT. REGARDLESS, WITH THIS KIND OF PATTERN, I EXPECT SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE FAVORED WEST/NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES FOR THE PERIOD. YES, WE AGAIN MAY MEASURE IN FEET IN SOME HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS LIKE MT MANSFIELD AND JAY PEAK. That is a beautiful, absolutely beautiful, AFD. The guys and gals at BTV rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 That is a beautiful, absolutely beautiful, AFD. The guys and gals at BTV rock. You did miss this part, J.Spin... haha. LOOKING EVEN FARTHER AHEAD INTO FANTASY LAND, IT DOESN`T APPEAR THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE APPRECIABLY BEFORE CHRISTMAS. THUS I`D PUT MY MONEY ON A SOLID SNOWPACK FOR US ALL COME DECEMBER 25TH. I like their thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hvysnow79 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 34F Snow starting to mix in with the light rain. We had 8F temp drop in a little over an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 That is a beautiful, absolutely beautiful, AFD. The guys and gals at BTV rock. ok, you guys over in VT land can stop hogging all the snow Seriously, can someone get this pinwheeling crapola of rain outta here already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 ok, you guys over in VT land can stop hogging all the snow Seriously, can someone get this pinwheeling crapola of rain outta here already I'm pulling for you guys on the Day 6 event... I really hope everyone from SNE up through ME that hasn't had snow yet finally gets a plowable snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 You did miss this part, J.Spin... haha. LOOKING EVEN FARTHER AHEAD INTO FANTASY LAND, IT DOESN`T APPEAR THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE APPRECIABLY BEFORE CHRISTMAS. THUS I`D PUT MY MONEY ON A SOLID SNOWPACK FOR US ALL COME DECEMBER 25TH. I like their thinking. I'm with you all the way. As you know PF, I discussed this in a winter outlook in october and you agreed. December + upslope will make the Greens $$. Great call on not lettin stowe fire up the guns last week. Tons of snow up high and would have been a total waste of money. Skinned with a mutual friend to Mt. Ellen saturday and then Starks nest sunday. Great powder turns both days with only a change over at MRG at liek 2pm tomorrow. Really think that at elevation the rain will only improve the skiing as it seems to have formed a super base that's not going anywhere. I love what I see upslope wise for the week and ESP. from the 16th to 17th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I'm pulling for you guys on the Day 6 event... I really hope everyone from SNE up through ME that hasn't had snow yet finally gets a plowable snowfall. We are dancing........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I'm with you all the way. As you know PF, I discussed this in a winter outlook in october and you agreed. December + upslope will make the Greens $. Great call on not lettin stowe fire up the guns last week. Tons of snow up high and would have been a total waste of money. Skinned with a mutual friend to Mt. Ellen saturday and then Starks nest sunday. Great powder turns both days with only a change over at MRG at liek 2pm tomorrow. Really think that at elevation the rain will only improve the skiing as it seems to have formed a super base that's not going anywhere. I love what I see upslope wise for the week and ESP. from the 16th to 17th. Nice, glad to hear you got out this weekend. Definitely a good weekend to avoid the ski resorts... thanks to all the snow last week and the high publicity of the event (at least locally), Stowe was absolutely slammed on Saturday. I heard it was one of the best early December weekends business-wise in a long time. Regarding the snowmaking last week... I did end up looking pretty good for that call. Had our VP of Operations focusing on expansion instead of resurfacing/increase depths on already-opened terrain. Personally, I'm a fan of the "dust and run" snowmaking program up here in N.VT because we get so much annual snowfall. Further south, the "dust and run" program can burn you when that thaw hits and it doesn't snow afterward and you've got bare spots all over the place. It all depends on your climatology... it wouldn't make sense for a spot like Wachusett Mtn in central MA to go with that sort of snowmaking attack because they don't get anywhere close to the natural snowfall. In a spot like that you want to set-up your equipment and keep blasting for days and days until you are comfortable that you can make it through the season with X-amount of snow on a given trail. Its a huge waste of time and money to keep moving snowguns and gear back and forth to/from the same trail, so expansion is generally a slow process when you need to stay on a certain trail for 7 days to build a base that'll last all season. Up here in N.VT, we can put down just enough of a base to open the trail, then move on to the next (and hopefully not have to come back to said trail) and let Mother Nature build her own base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 All you need for some weenie fodder snow fix is to go look at the 18z GFS run......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Nice, glad to hear you got out this weekend. Definitely a good weekend to avoid the ski resorts... thanks to all the snow last week and the high publicity of the event (at least locally), Stowe was absolutely slammed on Saturday. I heard it was one of the best early December weekends business-wise in a long time. Regarding the snowmaking last week... I did end up looking pretty good for that call. Had our VP of Operations focusing on expansion instead of resurfacing/increase depths on already-opened terrain. Personally, I'm a fan of the "dust and run" snowmaking program up here in N.VT because we get so much annual snowfall. Further south, the "dust and run" program can burn you when that thaw hits and it doesn't snow afterward and you've got bare spots all over the place. It all depends on your climatology... it wouldn't make sense for a spot like Wachusett Mtn in central MA to go with that sort of snowmaking attack because they don't get anywhere close to the natural snowfall. In a spot like that you want to set-up your equipment and keep blasting for days and days until you are comfortable that you can make it through the season with X-amount of snow on a given trail. Its a huge waste of time and money to keep moving snowguns and gear back and forth to/from the same trail, so expansion is generally a slow process when you need to stay on a certain trail for 7 days to build a base that'll last all season. Up here in N.VT, we can put down just enough of a base to open the trail, then move on to the next (and hopefully not have to come back to said trail) and let Mother Nature build her own base. The place that confuses me most (and this is now off topic so i'll prob. get yelled at) is WF. They take forever to open trails with guns. No part of that is becaues their trails are HUGE compared to VT. Both in vert and trail width. However it's hella cold there and while I don't understand gun tech that well, it sure seems that you get a copious amt of snow at 10F and since the cold locks in there for weeks at times, why they don't have half the mountain open after a period like that is beyond me. Anyway...end rant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 somebody stuck 1-3 inches in my forecast tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitywave Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 All you need for some weenie fodder snow fix is to go look at the 18z GFS run......... coastal maine in the bullseye for 20+", a little mixing towards the end for DownEast wow o_O Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 coastal maine in the bullseye for 20+", a little mixing towards the end for DownEast wow o_O lol...wish this was friday and had this same solution, We have potential at this point, Thats all we can ask being 6 days out............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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