brooklynwx99

trough on the EPS is deeper with stronger blocking

you have an anomalous -NAO breaking down over the Davis Strait and a 50/50 in place, it’s a really good pattern for a significant storm. and the trough is showing up as low as -3 to -4 sigma on OP runs. climo starts to mean less when you’re dealing with that level of deviation from the mean someone is going to get crushed. I would feel a lot better if I was in Boston

also, lol

and the trough is showing up as low as -3 to -4 sigma on OP runs. climo starts to mean less when you’re dealing with that level of deviation from the mean

you have an anomalous -NAO breaking down over the Davis Strait and a 50/50 in place, it’s a really good pattern for a significant storm

verbatim, some pretty stout cross polar flow develops. again, I would like to see it get closer, but it would work

IF the TPV gets displaced like some of the OP runs have shown, I'll buy it. big if for now, but with the ongoing SSW and Pacific wave breaking, it is a possibility. would be silly to totally dismiss it

hell, even 1998 had a late season event followed by a week of 80s. it was NYC's only snow of the winter

IF there were to be a weird late season event, this would be the pattern needed to get it done

IF there were to be a weird late season event, this would be the pattern needed to get it done

lol. if there was to be a dumb late season event, this would be the pattern you’d need to pull it off

this ain’t bad… blocked flow to the north, a 50/50 in place, and strong HP to the north to allow colder air to drain in. again, something to keep an eye on, especially away from the immediate coast

if this was Jan, i’d probably can the risk, but March is stupid and this could easily just cut off and dump

i would like to see more of a cutoff signature, as AN heights over Nova Scotia usually aren’t the best for late season storms. however, teleconnections aren’t quite as useful as they are in mid-Jan due to shorter wavelengths. there’s also some nice HP to the north. something to watch, but I would lower expectations given a lack of ample cold air

i would like to see more of a cutoff signature, as AN heights over Nova Scotia usually aren’t the best for late season storms. however, teleconnections aren’t quite as useful as they are in mid-Jan due to shorter wavelengths. there’s also some nice HP to the north. something to watch, but I would lower expectations given a lack of ample cold air