Jump to content

Typhoon Tip

Meteorologist
  • Posts

    37,830
  • Joined

  • Last visited

5 Followers

About Typhoon Tip

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Not Telling

Recent Profile Visitors

24,293 profile views
  1. Racked up another positive temperature day despite feeling miserably cold and gloomy ... this is how we contribute to CC here.
  2. 12z Euro's another flooder ...but does bring goodies to the winter hold-out types from Brian-like and points N. Also has the balmy bubble air mass formulating after that from 7th on spanning SE Canada/NE and the OV, too.
  3. yeah... April ... particularly early April is just perfectly when that is most likely to occur around here. I'm not sure what your history is, but do you remember the 1997 "April Fool's Day storm" ? It was sunny, 64 F at 1:15 pm up at the UML weather lab, while the 12z model runs were coming in with a 4 contoured hornet stinger 500 mb closed low and attending sfc bomb just S of Cape Cod scheduled for 2 days later. The campus was abuzz with that type of passionate fever as though the prison gates were opened and the world was set free. The energy and joy was palpable on that Saturday, mid day. Monday we changed to snow, and that night 9 consecutive hours of S+ with occasional lightning all quadrants was on the Logan Metar. My buddy lived in Wayland, MA ( about 20 mi due W of Boston along Rt 20). He was describing the breath arresting wide-eye pause that overwhelmed him as he swung open the door to see that the 0" of snow on ground the previous evening was now 31" ...tenting over the cars to the point where they were completely and totally encased. This is the more typical society guy. Doesn't really concern for weather forecast, except here or there when it necessarily matters to him. Not like us in here that track cumulus clouds ( haha). So I don't even think he knew there was a winter storm warning in place - or if so, only tacitly aware of it. But then again, LOL, I don't think NWS was much better considering what happened. By the following Saturday, it was 60 degrees.
  4. You know what ... it's not out the question that we end up with a snow pack than 2 days later hover 70 F over top. With mud gully rivers flowing out of it, of course. I have seen it be 70 F with snow still on the ground due to an March or April sudden switch. Firstly, sell 20+" for now. But a 4-6" late season urinal blue cookie snow aching to melt when the storm's pulling out, knowing the next day the forecast is 59 F because even though the profiles allow for 72, no one has the ballz to forecast that over a snow pack.... that's always an fun bun for me.
  5. But yeah...that warming look was even more impressive in the 00z run. How far and wide/long a any warm up in the range ultimately is...the entire continent below the 50th is in general seasonally flushing out the cold. It's like - symbolically - this coastal on the 3-6th is the spring exit event. Thickness gradients relax right after and with much more shallow cool loads that are easier modulated by the powerful April sun.
  6. 'cept laying down a bd boundary that close by is going to see that bd down to cape may nj
  7. Well sure... but I was just speaking to that chart/interval, specifically. It maybe too warm. ... like I said, the GGEM tends to be too warm in the bl in that mid range stuff. I think it's overall an impressive homage to potential that it's as blue painted in ptype as much as it is at this range. That -NAO over the western limb in the multi-model blend has been hugely consistent for days now - it's like all but definitely going to happen. And it argues that anything delivered out of the NE Pac WILL descend in latitude underneath - the telecon on the shipping route is centered over the Mid Atlantic... The question - for me - is whether that result would bias on the N or S side of the general statistical domain. Because the entrance intervals ( time ) just prior shows heights in positive anomaly, albeit modestly so, over the lower Tenn Valley and adjacent Gulf o/ Mex/Florida and off the SE coast. That's a "Miami Rule" no-no... Some of the wave mechanics in the descent will get absorbed when the flow compresses down there, and is forced to speed up velocity. That's probably why we are seeing these solution - at present - that take the closing mid level centers straight over SNE instead of the idealized S of LI track like those biggies of yore and song. The feed-back process end up more N where more of the wave mechanics are less neg interfered.
  8. That's like snowing really hard with nothing sticking ... not below 1200 or so... I think though that the GGEM having a warm bl bias in this time range above, 'might' make that interesting with the perfunctory correction.
  9. Told ya .... https://phys.org/news/2024-03-extratropical-ocean-atmosphere-interactions-contribute.html ...15 years ago
  10. oH man ... I hope that 00z GFS is right about the 7th - 10th ... madly deserved. 552 + dm hydrostats everywhere S of 50 N for three days of sun working on the landscape. The funny thing is, the 6th has the last of the -NAO driven coastal system still whirling in 38 F cat paws, and two days later it may be in the upper 60s or even 70 given that synopsis. Plus it has the upshot of less impeded eclipse viewing. It'd be nice but can't be confident about that unfortunately at this range.
  11. Actually to be fair and honest, I noticed looking out the kitchen window when waiting on the tea kettle this morning that the lawn suddenly has green patches that were not there last week. I don't qualify it as "growing" just yet, but the uniform beige is now more a patchwork of vaguely greener and dormancy. I don't think that is early in and of itself. My recollection is that grass will tinge green at lesser environmental excuse - few mild days in February passing out the solar nadir into Ray's favorite - warm bum car seat season - and that patchwork look will flash over fields. That seems more like where we are at here in the Nashoba Valley. Which is interesting ...because what part of an icing event just last week flicked the turn green trigger ?
  12. I think it's interesting that we've had about 9 consecutive months of above normal precipitation - I think? - on a regional scale, yet we never seem to really push the flood threat over the top. We're getting the Headlines out of the official offices but it seems by and large we're in a kind of "hydrostatic balance" (sloppy usage) where the outflow and inflow into the geography are in equilibrium; above climo, but below flood gauges. Playin' with fire? It's like sustaining a primed wick and never getting a match event
  13. He's like a cat sticking its head in a paper bag - thinking it's all safe in there because of course ... that's the world in what it can see. Only his paper bag is his front yard.
  14. yeah, that's a good point. From a sensible/experience approach, March is really a winter month - though CC's been fuggin with it, no doubt. If the 'weather machine' welshes on that end of the deal, there's really nothing redeeming left over - not to me anyway. Ooh, 42 F endless more clouds than sun, sign me up! I will, one day, be set enough to afford a 2nd residence possibly in California or even in Arizona or New Mexico, that I can flee to at this time of year ... open ended return date based upon the tenor of the spring/length of the dildo inches of that particular year
  15. mm... I think April is but it's probably 6 to 1 half dozen of the other. perhaps "Marpril" is the better way to look at it. And May is the dirty cousin that shows promise but once in awhile still abets in crime.
×
×
  • Create New...