Windspeed

Fantastic thread about long-range MDR and an equatorial Atlantic Nino vs ENSO Nina event; furthermore, any implications on the upcoming Atlantic Hurricane season.

Accuweather is such a joke. At least show some semblance of professionalism instead of fearmongering like some weenie posting on Reddit. Also, a "15% chance of 30 named storms or more" seems rather high considering it's only happened once on record. How does a meteorologist even determine that statistic scientifically? "Explosive" as a headline is just clickbaity BS.

The latest NMME now reaches into the heart of the Atlantic tropical season, and it's pretty eye-opening. Mighty strong positive AMO look. Obviously too early to start hyping as things are fluid and we still have a few months of long-range modeling precursors; however, if this pattern does evolve, it would certainly favor a low-shear MDR and long-track setup for Cape Verde hurricanes. SST patterns are not the end all, be all, of said pattern, but such a look could support north-central Atlantic and Bermuda ridging as well. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/tmpsfc_Seas4.html

Work in progress as the column moistens. It's like flipping on a switch. We've got moderate flakes falling here now just south of Bristol.

Some good bands still over Arkansas. You may still do well. That being said, the heavier returns right now are setting up east of you on radar.

Isentropic lift is increasing, and radar is filling with heavy returns along the TN/AL border. That is all moving NE, and as such, we should see a heavy snowband from SW of Knoxville, the I-75 corridor, up into Holston Valley and the I-81 corridor for the remainder of the day. I haven't really seen any of the mesoscales balk yet. Pretty confident in this snowstorm for a large 4-10" swath up the eastern Tennessee watershed, minus the mixing issues that may persist in the Chattanooga area.

I actually like the current placement of the precip shield 60-72 hrs out. I feel like suppression might increase totals for the eastern Valley to TN/NC border as we dial into the event. But not so shifting that the I-75 corridor doesn't score big in your neck of the woods. I suppose this is our biggest chance of a good snow in a number of years if modeling doesn't crap the bed this weekend. Hopefully, as the higher resolution mesoscales come into better range, they maintain 3-6" coverage for all or most of East Tennessee.

Nice write-up by Tomer Burg with regards to modeling solutions to this week's winter storm, or, rather, lack of potential. The lead time from 144 hrs to 48 hours was a significant failure across the board.

I'm really digging the setup for next weekend through New Year's week. Cold will be in place. Just need the storm tracks to cooperate.

Strong tornado may be in progress now.

The high-rise structures are built to withstand some pretty strong EQs. Acapulco exists on a subduction zone prone to violent quakes. Of course, that doesn't mean the guts of floors didn't have cheaper materials. But I'd imagine some of these more expensive high-rises that got gutted weren't cheap. The rich and famous like their Acapulco.

The high rise damage is insane.