Dsnowx53

Thanks! I have more ETA data that I will be adding shortly. It amazed me that the AVN was STILL as far south as it was as late as 12z March 4th, considering how much the ETA had already jumped. Unfortunately, I don't have any MRF data, which would've been really cool for the 00z March 3rd run that I just added. I think as Chris said a few years ago, the best forcing was further north with the phasing PV lobe, as that was where the better dynamics were, and as that phase trended north and sloppier, a still somewhat south track of the 500mb low wasn't enough to take the forcing and explosive cyclogenesis with it, like it had on previous runs. I still wish this verified http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/dougsimo/1march2001preciptest060.gif http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/dougsimo/1march2001500mbtest060.gif

Awesome write-up. I've been working on making archived AVN and ETA plots for this event since last night and so far have this: http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/dougsimo/indexcasestudies.html Your writeup helped me a lot with which runs to choose. I'm going to add more ETA runs and hopefully see if I can get 12-hour precip data for 60 and 72 hours on the AVN since I don't have data for 54 and 66 hours (not sure the AVN had those hours anyway).

Incredible statistic.

Apparently, the sirens weren't working. At least that's what the ABC station down there said.

Can someone explain to me what exactly a debris ball is? I know how to identify them (well, they're pretty easy to spot), but I don't understand what exactly they are. Thanks.