LongBeachSurfFreak

Those Caribbean cruiser/ GOF seasons aren’t great for Long Island surfers, so I’ll pass. Personally I think this season will be so hyperactive there will be activity everywhere. That and the eastern MDR being so freakishly warm leads to a tendency for early development and strengthening which favors recurves.

1012 is seriously weak sauce. No wonder the rain didn’t materialize…

Not much still open unfortunately. Killington always goes super late though and would benefit

Don, I respect your integrity but the first pic is suspect. Are you sure that was taken today? You know I’m a horticulturalist at Columbia and a huge climate change backer but that pic seems off. We are barely cracking buds on the earliest flowering trees here. And maybe a few daffodils…

It was roaring in lynbrook earlier. Kind of in a lol now that the low is closing in.

2.32” at the wantagh meso so far. Roads were fine on the way into work. Over 4” on the week, should be around 6” by the weekend.

Long Island about to get smoked

One thing I will agree with, is there happens to be a strong low during that time, you could bring some of that cold down to the surface. That’s where your snow potential exists.

You know things are bad (especially for the ski resorts) when these are the overnight obs from the top of Mt. Washington last night… NW 39 60.00 Mostly Cloudy and Windy BKN030 BKN100 37 36 38 36 93% 23 NA NA NA 06 05:53 NW 41 60.00 Mostly Cloudy and Windy FEW030 BKN100 37 36 93% 23 NA NA NA 06 04:55 NW 41 60.00 Partly Cloudy and Windy SCT120 37 36 93% 23 NA NA NA 06 03:58 N 44 0.06 Fog and Windy VV001 36 36 100% 21 NA NA NA 06 02:57 N 46 0.06 Fog and Windy VV001 37 37 100% 22 NA NA NA 06 01:57 N 46 0.06 Fog and Windy VV001 37 37 100% 22 NA NA NA 06 00:47 N 36 0.06 Fog and Windy VV002 37 37 39 37 100% 23 NA NA NA 0.40 05 23:56 NW 23 0.06 Light Rain Fog and Breezy VV002 37 37 100% 26 NA NA NA

That’s a very solid east coast landfall look. I wouldn’t if there are multiple landfalls from Florida to the NE including majors.

Hopefully we do not end up with the whole water table rising this month. October 05 the entire block I grew up on had 1-2’ of water in the basement. And in that case there isn’t much you can do about it until the levels drop. It’s not a flash flood more like a prolonged mess.

I recorded 11.5” for the season at 120th and Broadway. Obviously the park was low, first Feb event 5.5” while the park was 3.2” for example.

There are plenty of us who love the seasons being the way they are supposed to be. I’m a horticulturalist and these early warmups are awful for dormant plants. If it’s going to get warm early it has to stay warm or we risk damage.

It’s above my skill level but I’m sure someone can go pack and look at the synoptic pattern in 54 specifically. It’s really just a roll of the dice. A pattern conducive to a north east landfall exists multiple times a year, it’s just a matter of lining up a cane with said pattern.

If you look at the history of majors in the north east there is one about every 70 years. So I would hardly say we have switched out of that pattern. On the contrary we are due. It’s only anger of time. Cat 3 winds will decimate the power grid, and make sandy look like a walk in the park: