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Temperatures will rebound into the upper 50s tomorrow under partly to mostly cloudy conditions. Saturday will see temperatures briefly return to near seasonable levels. However, another cold front will likely cross the region on Saturday with a return to cooler conditions. Overall, generally cooler than normal conditions will likely persist into at least the middle of next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.15°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring. The SOI was -5.77 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was not available today. On April 14 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.520 (RMM). The April 13-adjusted amplitude was 0.553 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.9° (1.2° above normal).

Climate Model Forecasts for Future Winters for RCP 4.5 (most likely scenario):

The report didn't mention a synergistic heat wave.

While some on Social Media continue to dismiss or deny climate change, real world evidence of the consequences of anthropogenic climate change continue to pile up in a growing body of attribution studies. The latest study concerns an extreme heatwave that affected Africa's Sahel Region from March 31-April 4, 2024. The magnitude of the heat was assessed as having been "virtually impossible" in the absence of climate change. Moreover, as the climate warms further, the frequency of such heat is expected to increase dramatically, with such events become a once-in-20-year case. The full attribution study can be found at: https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/bitstream/10044/1/110771/2/Report 1.pdf

The above table was broken down into decadal periods:

Periods of rain are likely tonight into tomorrow. A general 0.25"-0.50" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely. Tomorrow will be the coolest day of the week with the mercury struggling to reach 50°. Another cold shot could arrive on Saturday. Overall, generally cooler than normal conditions will likely persist into at least the middle of next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.15°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring. The SOI was -5.77 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was not available today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 69% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.0° (1.3° above normal).

New York City's Warming Winters:

Starting tomorrow, it will turn somewhat cooler with unsettled conditions. Thursday will be the coolest day of the week with the mercury struggling to reach 50°. Another cold shot could arrive during the weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.15°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring. The SOI was -12.91 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.288 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.0° (1.3° above normal).

The temperature soared into the 80s across much of the region today. It was even hotter in the southern Mid-Atlantic region where the temperature topped out at 90° in Norfolk (old record: 89°, 1941) and Richmond. Tomorrow will be another warm day with readings rising toward or above 70°. Afterward, it will turn somewhat cooler with unsettled conditions before a stronger cold shot arrives during the next weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.2°C for the week centered around April 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.22°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring. The SOI was -4.69 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.405 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.2° (1.5° above normal).

Tomorrow and Tuesday will be warm days with widespread readings in the 70s. Tomorrow will be the warmer of the two days with readings rising well into the 70s and perhaps near 80° in the warmest spots. Afterward, it will turn somewhat cooler with unsettled conditions before a stronger cold shot arrives during the next weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.2°C for the week centered around April 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.22°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring. The SOI was -4.69 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.405 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.3° (1.6° above normal).

I ran into some pea-sized hail about 60 miles east of Binghamton.

Spring is now in full bloom at the New York Botanical Garden. Some photos from this morning:

There's more to the story. When the authors of the papers that expressed no view in the abstract regarding AGW were asked to self-rate their positions, more than 60% endorsed AGW. Rejection of AGW languished at 1.8%. In short, very few scientists actually reject AGW. The majority endorse it. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024024

Tomorrow will turn noticeably warmer under partly sunny skies. The temperature will rise into the upper 60s and perhaps lower 70s. Monday and Tuesday will be warm days with widespread readings in the 70s. Afterward, it will turn somewhat cooler with unsettled conditions before a stronger cold shot arrives during the next weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.2°C for the week centered around April 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.22°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring. The SOI was +4.97 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.926 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 65% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.6° (2.0° above normal).

In the wake of the area's most recent storm, a dry weekend will follow. It will turn briefly cooler tomorrow with a gusty breeze, but warmer air will quickly return starting on Sunday. Temperatures will likely reach the 70s early next week. For the week, temperatures will wind up warmer to much warmer than normal overall. Cooler conditions could follow afterward. Given the near-term warmth and extended guidance, New York City's Central Park is all but certain to finish the 2023-2024 snow season with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall for a record second consecutive season. Records go back to 1869. This will be the last reference to seasonal snowfall for Winter 2023-2024. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.2°C for the week centered around April 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.22°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring. The SOI was -9.74 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.838 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 68% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.8° (2.2° above normal).