billgwx
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I'd look at the resulting wet bulb temperatures from MOS temp and dewpoint more than its forecast temp. A quick and dirty estimate for wet bulb is Dpt + 2/3 * (Tmp - Dpt). Values 32-34 may still get you wet snow, provided snow is what's falling and not sleet or rain...once you lose a snowflake you can't get it back- 3,764 replies
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Which is what the warmer NAM solutions had been forecasting.
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Let's at least figure out why this is happening. One storm sticks out in my mind where the NAM scored a warmer coup like this--March 2001. Global models stayed cold, NAM was the first to cast doubt with warmer profiles aloft, it ended up being right. Was at Mount Holly where we had warnings up, got a sloppy 1-3." Eastern Long Island still did very well though. I've also seen the NAM go too far NW/warm, so it works both ways. Consistency is key. If the 18Z run goes warm I'll buy it.
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Like being a pro athlete and tuning in to WFAN to hear similar
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Fake news. We had to stop doing those when we stopped issuing Blizzard Watches
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Would be reflected more at 700 mb and 850 mb I think...
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Want to see other guidance as amped/warm as the 12Z NAM cycles before jumping on it. Latest parallel GFS looked similar at H5 but was cold...oh wait the GFS is often too cold aloft. Anyway, the NAM amplification yesterday didn't appear to be due to convective feedback. But the model's not consistent run-to-run, 12Z'ers amped/warm and the other cycles colder. All that said, I didn't entirely discount the warmer idea yesterday and threw in some south shore/east end mixing for Long Island.
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Blizzard watches got discontinued, just because of that one March bust a few years ago. When we've issued them otherwise they worked out quite nicely. I think the rationale was that we all freak out when the S word is mentioned, throwing the B word in there too early gets everyone jacked up way too much too soon. Could go winter storm watch to blizzard warning, also winter storm watch to winter storm warning and then issue a shorter fused blizzard warning. We don't typically do that, the Sterling office has.
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Too early for a watch. Very long lead times just lead to "watch fatigue," needlessly add to everyone's work, and invariably something goes wrong. We all know it's coming.
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Kuchera ratios are way overblown for this storm...does not account for wind for one. I ran them yesterday for the OKX long term forecast for laughs...15:1?? As usual with the big storms, 12:1 probably best inland and 10:1 closer to the coast, less for wet snow or where sleet mixes in per the NAM.
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January 2016? GFS was the most suppressed as usual with that storm, then the NAM/SREF came into view and corrected that fast as they appear to be doing now.
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Agree but would also like to see the SREF there too as in Jan 2016.
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GFS is notorious for overdoing this confluence via too strong of a polar jet. If models overdo the snowfall across southern Canada this weekend that too could lead to too strong/cold of a high.
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And the ECMWF long range suggested the idea of a mid December NYC snow event in early November!!
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