hurricaneman

If the ensembles show divergent scenarios the we still have no idea we’ll see what the ensembles show

If the GFS was moving this at the speed of the Euro it would have a similar outcome, the slower Lee is the farther west it goes and vice versa

Frequent lightning in the eyewall, the eye should start clearing out in the next few hours

Possibly Maine landfall this run, hoping for no more west shifts as that would be ugly for eastern New England if that happens

The thing saving southern New England according to the models is Margot

Maine is too

Is west of 18z now landfalling in western Nova Scotia Maine border just east of the 12z Euro but the fact that the models seem to be adjusting west should be cause for concern in terms of sensible weather. on the Euro path hurricane wind gust would probably hit eastern Massachusetts, New Hampshire with Maine getting the lions share of wind damage and surge The current GFS would give maybe no more than a typical nor’easter conditions in eastern Massachusetts and New Hampshire with hurricane winds in Maine

This run of the GFS seems west of the 12 run, this run may be a big one

It definitely didn’t look like a large tornado but could have been quite intense based on the tossing of vehicles and a destroyed business like a high end ef2 to ef3 but we’ll see what daylight shows to determine it’s intensity. the size doesn’t tell the strength like look at the 150ft wide f5 tornado in Manitoba in 2007 and vise versa where I’ve seen wide tornadoes that have been underwhelming fortunately like ef2 or less

The thing I’m seeing is that the GFS is slowly trending towards the Euro

The long run of the 0zGFS is showing a major hurricane near New England,l from 95L, wouldn’t bet on it this far out

Several members if you go farther out in the ensemble run go west of Bermuda and impact the NE US and Nova Scotia, may have to watch this even though it’s a slim chance for the NE US but most probable an Atlantic Canada landfall especially Nova Scotia

Similar in track to the HWRF

Also this one on the 0zGFS has a cat 2 hurricane so we can’t rule out a major heading for Montauk, RI or SE Massachusetts

The 0zGFS looks similar to Bob in 1991 but a bit weaker but the trend is stronger with Henri from run to run and not weird jumps in intensity and movement so this needs to be watched for sure