RIC_WX

Its a sharp cutoff for sure. Pittsburgh is at or above normal precip going back the past 12 months and YTD while areas as close as Western MD (actually on the southernmost edge of the PIT MSA) is solidly BN for the same period of time. The headwaters of the N BranchPotomac rolling out of Garrett Co are at the highest after the past week of rain as any time in at least the past 12 months.

I do wonder if a couple El Niño induced paste bombs are in store for next winter. Sure seems plausible looking out from here. The inflows into the lake this morning were incredible to watch, need some sun or that water is going to stay cold. A little surreal seeing so little traffic on the water for a holiday weekend.

49/47 at Deep Creek. Steady rain, clouds, wind, even more utility disruptions than normal. .66" yesterday and .38" so far today. Does not appear that the temperature will move much (if any) prior to Sunday afternoon and the rain chances appear categorical most of that time. With respect to holiday weekend plans, consider anywhere else. A real disappointment for the people and the limited economy up here sadly, they can't really make it up when a holiday period is washed out like this.

There will be less upslope, so the mountains can't rack up impressive totals 1-2" at a time as they have done the past 2 years. OTOH, those perfect track 35* rainstorms for the cities will be 28* paste bombs in the highlands. And no, those really haven't happened at all this decade outside of a few noteworthy early / late season events.

Solid B for me. Rationale? Generally below climo snow west of the beltway, despite impressive stretches of cold. The holiday period was arguably the longest sustained AN period of the entire winter, and while it wasn’t as long or as mild as seasons past, the timing was horrible. I would happily trade a good holiday period for mild most other times, I travel too much for work and this is the one time of year I am mostly around and not too busy to enjoy what’s happening around me. A lot of the cold and snow we did receive in early December, January and February was wasted for me, I was simply not around to enjoy it. This makes 5 winters of having a place at DCL, time speeding up is another peril of middle age (kids, take note, there are many). There have been few big storms during this period, historically speaking even warm, east based ninos are known to produce here and I am looking forward to the potential next winter even if it is much milder.

I find this typical of the backside of an arctic air mass, good radiational cooling and the winds finally decouple. My place was -8.5 this AM, but already rebounded to 27. We hovered around zero the previous couple nights with a lot more wind.

If next weekend materializes, I am heading back west. Enjoy!

4.7 / -2 Deep Creek 25 / 6 Leesburg wind never fails on that mountain. Enjoy

You mchenry or Alexandria for this one? I was told to stay in Leesburg because “it snows at wisp every weekend dad”. Oh well.

There are 48 hours of model runs before the first flake, pellet or drop falls. We are not even at the two minute warning, still plenty of time for this to trend better / worse and undoubtedly it will.

I certainly would not dismiss his opinion at all. That said, he should share these thoughts with LWX given their threat map is at deep purple CWA wide, not sure I can remember seeing that before.

In a year framed largely by persistent drought, it was perhaps a flash flood that provided one of the most memorable and impactful events of the year. I realize we pay less attention to what happens outside of the beltways and the space in between, but Westernport sits almost at the base of backbone mountain and the N Branch Potomac river, uniquely vulnerable to a flash flood as evidenced in May 2025. https://www.wbaltv.com/article/150-students-evacuated-boats-allegany-county-school/64760668 Honorable mention: Deep Creek cabin experienced subzero low temperatures on 4 consecutive nights in January, the longest string of subzero lows at this location for at least the previous 4 years.

Its a progressive pattern - more challenging to model. The seasonal analogs built off nina's with multi-week cold starts to December probably offer the best clue. These suggest the relax/reload period will be no less than 3-4 weeks. If anything, the pattern has been MORE progressive than some of the analog years hence the somewhat muted warm ups here compared to both what has often been modeled in the medium range and what has verified in places like the midwest. Translation - we are lamenting the fact the pattern hasn't been better, when in reality it could have been sooooo much worse.

19* / 12* Deep Creek. Not too cold, not much snow. But the wind? Relentless since late morning. So far one tree down and one piece of siding violently removed from my cabin.

With the kind of wind expected, power outages become an inevitability for someone. I spent the afternoon tuning up my generator to assure it will stay on at DCL.