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jaxjagman

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About jaxjagman

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KBNA
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  • Location:
    Brentwood,Tn.

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  1. Mammoth Cave is pretty cool,have fun!! Welcome to the board.Like PW just said beyond a certain time frame the models can change. Right now into Late Monday and Tuesday looks like a cold front by the Euro and GFS models,might be your biggest issue.But i wouldnt trust much myself beyond that point right now
  2. I dont know.Some of the short range models are coming in quicker tomorrow,wouldn't surprise me if a slight risk was introduced further east next update close to Nashville
  3. I'm still surprised more people didnt die in the Nashviile (downtown) from the F3 .The Kissimmee,Fl tornado (F3)was the worse in late Feb but the Birmingham F5 lifted 2 miles from downtown,that would have been catastrophic if it hit downtown.The chart is from fatalities in 1998
  4. Towards as we get into April we could get active again.We had a similar pattern back into 1998 with a minor SSW in March along with a ElNino quite similar to this one to an extent based on the ONI. 1997 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4 1998 2.2 1.9 1.4 1.0 0.5 -0.1 -0.8 -1.1 -1.3 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 But anyways the MJO by the CFS is showing the MJO getting into Africa/western IO into the first/2nd week of AprilUntil then we should start to see the AAM rise then revert back into a -AAM into April, But during this time frame we saw some violent tornadoes into Alabama https://www.weather.gov/bmx/event_04081998 We also saw the F5 hit Larwenceburg,Tn around a week later No forecast,nothing to panic about but there is some similarities from 1998 that i'm seeing right now to be a active period possibly well into spring
  5. Nino is done now.EKW just put a dent and in the east ,upwelling the colder waters FROM the thermocline to the surface.Euro and CFS the next few days both show a ERW,coming into play also,kinda like a 1-2 KO punch,then the easteries should come into play.If the thermocline was much colder along the IDL,into the WP,,this would be quite similar to what happened in the1997-1998 NINO/NINA
  6. Pattern of how the NINO got broke down from a strong Nino in 1997 into a strong NINA later into 1998,in most ways its very similar. Abstract [1] The intensity of the 1997 El Niño and the 8°C sudden drop in sea surface temperature (SST) around 0°–130°W during the turn into La Niña in 1998 were a surprise to the scientific community. This succession of warm and cold events was observed from start to finish with a comprehensive set of remotely sensed and in situ observations. In this study we employ space-based observations to demonstrate, for the first time, their maturity in capturing the preconditioning, onset, evolution, and decay of the 1997 El Niño and its transition into the 1998 La Niña. An accumulation of warm water in the west and equatorial wave reflection on the western ocean boundary appeared favorable for the development of El Niño. However, the action of a series of westerly wind bursts from December 1996 to June 1997, notably in March 1997, was instrumental in setting up this huge El Niño. The westerly wind bursts excited equatorial downwelling Kelvin waves and advected the eastern edge of the warm pool eastward, which triggered a distinct warming over the central and eastern parts of the equatorial basin. Once these warmed regions joined, the coupling between the SST and surface winds was fully effective, and El Niño reached its mature phase. By that time much of the warm waters of the western equatorial Pacific was transferred toward the east by surface eastward currents. The demise of El Niño and its turn into La Niña in spring 1998 were due to the arrival in the east of various interrelated phenomena. Upwelling was brought from the west by favorable off-equatorial wind stress curl and equatorial Kelvin waves generated by easterly winds and wave reflection on the western ocean boundary. Additional upwelling was brought from the east by equatorial Rossby waves generated by westerly winds. These various upwelling signals were added to the general uplifting of the thermocline because of the slow discharge of the upper layer of the equatorial basin by diverging surface currents. A series of equatorial Kelvin and Rossby waves, characterized by upwelling and opposite surface currents, led to the breakup of the warm waters, the surfacing of the thermocline, and the drastic drop in SST in May 1998 around 0°–130°W. With the arrival of cold water in the east the easterly winds expanded from the west, and La Niña turned into a growing mode. This view of the 1997–1998 El Niño–La Niña, afforded from space, enables the testing of various El Niño theories. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2001jc000850
  7. Yeah,pretty strong cap did us in
  8. Upper 70's Tuesday,its getting close by a couple degrees to being record highs
  9. This could be severe maybe before but maybe not,it is the long range of the Euro so it can change between now and then.But,height rises into Mongolia/China would seem to be a +PNA and not negative several days after ,no clue about the NAO,but i'm still not sure it will get that cold even if a ULL sits above you,i just find it difficult to figure out where the cold is coming from myself,dunno but this would be what it MIGHT look like around the 14th of March give or take a couple days
  10. The next pic would get really interesting in winter time J/F this is NOTHING but a cold look even with a -PNA for most of the LOWER 48 with the exception of the SW, you should see possibly height rises in the SW,but there is no cold,so i really doubt that would happen into March
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