HKY_WX

There's been many late Feb and March Ice events. It's a non issue, at least in NC.

I'd take anything at this point.

It is also pretty amazing how well it's been forecasted by the weekly cfs for the past month or so.

This is normally an amazing winter weather pattern for NC, climo wise. It's the best pattern printed up by the models in many years from a snow and ice standpoint. Hopefully we don't screw it up.

And this is why you guys are weenies.

Yeah just noticed this. Long way to go, especially for new England.

Eyewall is starting to look like a major cane now on radar. I wish the timing of this was 12hrs later so I could sleep.

Water vapor is often good in these scenarios when you're watching eyewall dynamics. I think we're about 2 or 3 hours from it truly clearing out.

Wouldn't take much of a leap to get there.

It's probably a bit premature to judge the Eye size. Eye is still clearing out/obscured and looks slightly elliptical on radar. I'd wait a few more hours to see how it matures.

Radar looks pretty classic. Only difference is the eyewall doesn't have that ring of fire look you see in high end cat 4 and 5. Can she make it before running out of water? We'll see. Cat 3 is pretty much a given at this point.

Water temp at this buoy 112m NW of Tampa is 88F. This is about 2 to 3* above the August average for that location. Combined with the low shear and upper level trough enhancement, pretty ideal setup up until landfall. Not sure I would expect any weakening. In fact, this looks pretty ideal for some explosive strengthening tonight. Perhaps more so than even forecasted. Not looking too good. If we see anymore trends west TLH could see some wild winds. NDBC - Station 42036 Recent Data (noaa.gov)

Seeing a polar vortex or piece of it over the lakes is pretty impressive. This can sometimes produce strong vorts/clippers for our area. There's a lot of possibilities, but I don't see anything until after this upcoming system. The ski areas are about to cash in big time.

The Northern Hemispheric pattern setting up is probably the best we've seen since 09/10 and 10/11(if you like snow in the east). Anytime you get such extreme blocking in the Atlantic (-NAO), the model trends are usually in favor of increased amplification and cutoffs upstream. Aka any fart in the wind can turn into a SECS. This pattern will likely produce, but I wouldn't get too caught up in the individual model solutions this far out.

I Def think there will be some gusts 60+ in the triangle this evening. Not sure what amount of power outages that will equate to though.