Scott747

At least compared to the HWRF/HMON the HAFS was about 15% better on track while it was in the experimental phase the last few years and only expected to improve. So any shifts they show should be noteworthy.

While the thread isn't in 'storm mode' there definitely needs to be a little more constructive posting that's storm specific. Also over the next few days as Lee is producing some eye candy refrain from quoting any imagery with one liners. Chances are it's going to be deleted. All it does is clog up the thread.

We're at the point leading up to landfall that if it isn't some solid analysis or discussion then expect that the posts will be removed. Chit chat, predictions, one word responses etc. should go into banter.

Those posts have gone away because it's the same schtick as it always is. In a nutshell that poster has cancelled the rest of August and September. Also October will be cancelled along with 2024, 2025 and beyond.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 3. Western Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure could form in the central or western Gulf of Mexico by the beginning of next week. Some slow development of this system is possible thereafter as it moves generally westward, potentially nearing the western Gulf of Mexico coastline in about a week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

In what is potentially shaping up to be a boring and below average year... We don't need your same schtick telling us it's going to be a boring and below average year.

Should be taking off soon and making a pass or two before this afternoon's package.

Take the NAM disco to banter.

About a 2-3 mb pressure drop on latest fix. Official upgrade won't be till the next update in an hour or so.

Looks like it has been upgraded in the database...

Could be one of those 'bombs away' kinda night.

5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 23 Location: 13.9°N 68.6°W Moving: WNW at 13 mph Min pressure: 1006 mb Max sustained: 35 mph

0z GFS is NC-17 for Galveston.

Behaving as expected. Modeling has backed off somewhat the last couple of days and showing more of a stretched out system with no dominant center between the lower and mid Texas coast. At least there is a 'tropical' feel between the wave action and winds/cloud cover that is bringing some relief from the heat and eventual rain across parts of the area.

Models have been flirting with the potential of a quick spin up off the Texas coast early next week. Seems a toss up right now of an organized tropical system, but should at least bring some well needed rain across parts of Texas.