iceman56
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About iceman56
- Birthday 11/03/1956
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Very happy with Colebrook/Columbia, NH. Got 3730' Mount Bunnell (formerly Blue Mt.) out my window when I'm there. Surrounded by the 28K acre Bunnell wildlife preserve. Dead quiet most of the time and a unique sunset every day (when the sun is out which is rare this time of year). Annual average snowfall ~ 150".
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Yup, warm Nov, Dec, Jan. Backloaded Feb & Mar. He's pretty much on his own.
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Odd though, JB is expecting 2016 to be the warmest on record due to remnant El Nino warmth and the AMO not having flipped yet. He expects a global cooldown to begin in 2017.
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Starting to not care for the high numbers in that forecast.
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Following the averages to the letter it appears without considering that averages happen as the result of extremes that are pretty tough to hit 90 days out.
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Seems like he's relying on high ratios which is tough to do in March.
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Got the pattern right at 500mb, but the surface didn't respond...
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He was as pessimistic as I think I've ever seen him regarding the pattern - basically writing off winter after 2/15 unless the MJO can get to cold phases 1,2,3 which really isn't forecasted at this time. The problem is that by the time it gets there, we can be well into March and below normal temps yield us a cold rain and fog. I also think also he's giving the strat warming too much credit as it's really just a temporary shift/split rather than a disappearance of the cold pool.
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Cecily going with 20-24" in backloaded winter. Could be as low as 12" or as high as 32" depending on El Nino maintaining strength and influence. http://6abc.com/weather/cecily-tynans-winter-weather-outlook-/1082334/
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He's actually indicating an area of 6-10" shows up across eastern PA into the PHL NW burbs due to the 'reverse eddy' off the Jersey coast. Not buying the 60 degree temps showing up on some models for Wednesday either.
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Not that It can't be right, I knew he would say that before I logged on. We haven;t seem many reversals once it goes north, especially in this short a time frame.
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Good post on a weather board where we are lucky to still have a few pros contribute...
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Yeah, fixed it... duh
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Looking like anyone getting 6" west of the river will be lucky at this point.
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Gotta say that he said to take any warmups with a grain of salt and don't be surprised if any moderation features snow. What looked like 40's to near 50 for 4 or 5 days is now a single day of low 40's (Sunday) with a threat of snow on the front and back end of a storm as shown in my local P&C.