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roardog

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    Cass City,Michigan

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  1. roardog
    Isn’t the pattern around day 10 close to the normal +enso June look though?
  2. roardog
    If we are to believe the CFS then 1+2 will have a lower anomaly than 3.4 by later this summer. There’s a period of time where 4 is almost the same as 1+2. I still think the model forecasts for 3.4 to get well over 3.0 are crazy but I guess we’ll see.
  3. roardog
    So does a Modoki just have to have lower anomalies in 3 and 1+2 than in 3.4 and 4 or does 1+2 need to be negative? I feel like that’s the same scenario just opposite.
  4. roardog
    What are your latest thoughts? You’re definitely one of the least biased and more knowledgeable posters here. Always appreciate you giving your thoughts
  5. roardog
    A true east based Nino should have near zero or negative anomalies in Nino 4 correct? I’ll believe that when I see it. I believe Nino 4 had a big drop off in June 1997. Let’s see if that happens this year.
  6. roardog
    My memory might be failing me but I think 1997 was the year of the November snowstorm bust here. We had a winter storm warning for 6-10 inches for the next day. By morning the warning was dropped and the forecast was for 1-3 inches. We never got a flake. It was all down toward you.
  7. roardog
    Yeah. All of that is going to happen plus fish will be living out of water and mosquitos will bite themselves. It’s going to be crazy!!
  8. roardog
    I think in 1896 they were placing the thermometers too close to the roads and would give false warm readings from horses walking by and farting. The climate records are all ruined!!!
  9. roardog
  10. roardog
    I’d be all for summer discussion in this thread too but there isn’t much interest in that.
  11. roardog
    There’s been plenty of rain the last few years to keep the lawn mostly green but it’s not like it’s that unusual historically for a lawn around here to turn yellow and dry in the summer. This isn’t Scotland. lol
  12. roardog
    Yeah. I probably shouldn’t have even responded to him as it’s just derailing another thread. He’s either being a troll or intentionally obtuse.
  13. roardog
    This all started because you said the cool early in the month was transient. instead of admitting you were wrong, you go on some ridiculous tirade about how warm March and April were and how warm the western US was last winter. WTF does any of that have to do with this month having below normal temperatures?
  14. roardog
    These guys are talking about atmospheric responses like WWB,MJO,SOI, etc. I don’t think anyone here disagrees with any of this. Posters like Bluewave and Chuck are talking about the pattern over the North Pacific and or North America not being completely Nino like. I’m still not even sure why we should even be expecting a strong Nino response right now since the RONI is at like +.5
  15. roardog
    2015-2016 had some big snowstorms here. Once upon a time there was a map posted here that showed that once you cross into super Nino threshold that we actually start to get above normal winter precip. The worst part of a Nino around here is the tendency for dryness. Even the weaker ones where we get below normal temperatures have a tendency to be dry. If super Nino can get us above normal precip, I would take that any day over a garbage non Nino winter like 01-02 or 11-12.
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