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MCS - Severe Threat Thursday June 23nd


NJwx85

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For several days the models have been forecasting a large scale MCS system to form over the lakes region on Wednesday, crossing upstate NY and PA overnight, eventually reaching the coast on Thursday. Although their are timing and evolution differences, the general synopsis has not changed for several days. 

 

The latest 12z NAM is the most severe for the NYC metro so far with 2500-3000 J/KG of SBCAPE making it roughly 50 miles north of NYC. 

 

In addition to the MCS, discrete convection will be possible, especially just out ahead of the main event. 

 

12z NAM is indicating 0-3km Helicity values exceeding 640 and moderately strong 0-3km EHI maximized over NNJ, NYC and the Western 2/3rds of LI indicating a localized enhanced supercell/tornado threat.

 

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Two potential problems I have with this threat:

 

[1] Timing

 

[2] Track of the sfc cyclone

 

With respect to [1], MCS generation will likely occur Wednesday late aft./evening in the lower Mid-west with propagation eastward during the overnight hours. However, typically, the 12z-18z period tends to feature MCS decay. Again, we're dealing with timing that is not ideal convection wise, in terms of the diurnal cycle. Further, if the sfc low tracks near/along NYC's latitude, the best severe threat will be DCA-PHL. Given the projected geopotential height evolution, I'm still skeptical of severe north of approximately Trenton.

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rgem is still out of its useful range

I've found the RGEM to be pretty good even at 48 hours. Not its best range obviously, but still a lot better than the NAM at 48 hours. When I saw the RGEM showing it missing us to the south, I figured the NAM was out to lunch yet again. Now some other models are following the RGEM. I bet we get nothing Thursday with the rain missing us well to the south. Very frustrating because it's so dry out there. The ground is parched. 

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Going with seasonal trend this year I will say the bulk of Thursday's MCS goes just to our south, but that doesn't mean we wont see at least some thunderstorm activity. Locally, it seems that south jersey is a thunderstorm magnet this year but then again they usually are. Still time to see how things set up for Thursday and we probably wont have a better idea until tomorrow night or Thursday morning IMO.

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