bluewave Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 A very deep upper trough will cross our area during Wednesday. This will produce steep mid and lower level lapse rates. This type of set up can produce small hail and gusty winds over 40 mph. If the instability is strong enough, a storm or two could approach severe limits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 That looks nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 7, 2016 Author Share Posted June 7, 2016 That looks nice You can get interesting things to happen with -4SD 500 mb lows here in June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 You can get interesting things to happen with -4SD 500 mb lows here in June. 500H-8.gif Kinda reminds me of last July if im not mistaken in Boston they ended up with a nice hailstorm wih a similar set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 Snow is in the forecast for north country mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 RGEM and NAM like areas just north of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 Nice thread. Should be an interesting day tomorrow. Thursday and Friday look great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 Extremely unstable right now in northwest Rockland county. Cumulus congestus and towering cumulus overhead. Would not be surprised to see t-storm cells start to pop here real soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 Would appreciate a met's perspective but my impression is that this is quite an unusual setup. Even just by feeling. It is decidedly cool, dry, and windy outside, which suggests a strong Canadian air mass taking hold, which rarely turns into severe potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 Is the lastest HRRR showing a MCS rolling thru here by midday? That is what it looks like to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 Is the lastest HRRR showing a MCS rolling thru here by midday? That is what it looks like to me Yes. And so does the 6z Rgem and Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 Sweet spot on the 4k NAM is just north of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 Sweet spot on the 4k NAM is just north of the city. Next frame shows the heaviest part directly through NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 Next frame shows the heaviest part directly through NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 um how about we look at actual radar since it's happening right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 um how about we look at actual radar since it's happening right now Good call, Looks like the convection is riding a plume of stronger mid-level lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 It has clouded over here considerably in the last 15 minutes. Almost complete overcast now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 When was the last time we had an MCS swing through the area and during the day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 When was the last time we had an MCS swing through the area and during the day? It's pretty rare. I wish we had a few more hours of heating to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 First SVRW just north of Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 Lol lets see if no rain zone imby verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 Lol lets see if no rain zone imby verifies It's a completely solid line, with some decent width. The chances of no rain are near zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 Cloud tops maxing out in the 20-25k range currently. Should be enough to produce some hail given the lapse rates. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DIX-EET-1-24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 Cloud tops maxing out in the 20-25k range currently. Should be enough to produce some hail given the lapse rates. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DIX-EET-1-24 12z Rgem loves NNJ and NYC metro/LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 All of the lighting strikes are south of Rt 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 The line looks the best to me between 78 and TTN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 8, 2016 Author Share Posted June 8, 2016 Impressive wind signature developing with those warmed cells west of Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 The line looks the best to me between 78 and TTN Looks like more lightning and better returns on the northern side on latest frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 Looks like more lightning and better returns on the northern side on latest frames. Line is warned from 78 south now looks like nnj and your area will miss out on anything good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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