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2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N


bluewave

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Early indications are that the Atlantic will see another active tropical cyclone season

north of 20N. This has been a familiar theme in recent years with the very warm SST

anomalies off the US East Coast. The first tropical cyclone making landfall along

the SE Coast early in the season matches previous 5 year analog composite

with a similar SST pattern. The other years with an early season landfall along

the SE Coast were 2015, 2014, 2012, 1996, and 1991. Whether we see further

landfalls along the East Coast like some of the years or activity remaining just

offshore to the east remains to be seen. But the area north of 20N in the Atlantic

looks like it will be active like the 5 analog years.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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You're always here with the good stuff.

 

Thanks very much for the compliment. I figured the NYC Metro posters would like a discussion and observations thread

focusing in on potential in the Atlantic north of 20N that we have seen in recent years.

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I doubt any of theses storms would have been counted in the pre-satellite era

 

Bonnie and Colin probably would have since they impacted land.

But maybe way back in time Alex would just have been a very

potent January ocean storm in a ships log.

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  • 5 weeks later...
2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

True but a lot can happen in the next two weeks. The models have been severely underestimating the WAR ridge. 

it's above 15N and not even to 40W yet.  i dont have all the stats in front of me but you could probably count on one hand the number of storms that made it across from that far N and E.  not saying it can't happen, just that it won't.

 

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, cmasty1978 said:

it's above 15N and not even to 40W yet.  i dont have all the stats in front of me but you could probably count on one hand the number of storms that made it across from that far N and E.  not saying it can't happen, just that it won't.

 

 

 

 

Understood. I think something like 85% of all CV storms that develop East of 50W harmlessly recurve OTS. 

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Seem like from around 8/30 to 9/02 anyone from New Orleans to NYC to Bermuda  will have to be on guard.    Storms are bouncing around like basketballs from run to run and model to model, with the EURO the least threatening and the GFS unable to decide where to put the thing.    Check out the nutty CMC at hour 150 from the 12Z run, it has four systems showing!

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