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June Pattern Discussion


CapturedNature

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After tomorrow, little or no heat till mid month most likely.

 

Yeah, the operational GFS has a dead-panned winter pattern in June across multiple cycles in its la-la range.

 

I suppose "la-la" offers some whispering hope that the realized pattern will be a normalized version of that.  But the Euro wasn't much better frankly, showing a real bona fide polar jet construct from 130 longitude clear across the continent to 70 W.  Really truly bizarre.

 

What is intriguing to me is that while that occurs, the actual anomalies products don't really reflect heights all that excessively deeply cold along and astride the 50th parallel.  It's like the Euro wants the outlandish look while not committing any negative crimes.  Not sure if that can work out that way... 

 

It seems more than anything else, we are in a local temporal climate signal (spanning perhaps years now going back to 2013) where fractals emerge negative relative to any setting.  What I mean by that is that cool results will pan out with better success than warm ones - which doesn't mean warm cannot happen.  It's like a 60-40 things ... perhaps masked by GW.  interesting...

 

Anyway, philosophies aside, that operational tenor and the tele's for that matter, look like the atmosphere really is bucking for a third consecutive year of a cool June, and my hunch is that 60-40 thing is why. It's just a better's observation of current pattern tendencies. 

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IMO after the 12th or so we see things flip quickly to AN and that month comes in warm

 

Nah ... more likely that just like how you started posting/rushing in a warm pattern changes back on ... April 20 (apparently not realizes the whole time that it was till cold, too), and it took 5 weeks to happen ... we'll probably have to wait 'till the first week of July now.   

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Last real furnace in June I recall is 2008. 2005 was also damned hot.

 

2008 is my most recent AN June, though 2013 was almost dead on average.  June 2005 is the last time I've reached 90.  June and May have moved in opposite directions since we moved to the foothills in mid-May 1998.  While Junes 2009-15 are 2.5F cooler than those 1998-2008, Mays are 2.1F milder for the same periods (w/o the partial May of 1998.)  Which doesn't mean much, given the sample size.

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whatever it is/was in June's of lore/yore ...  i distinctly recall the last several consecutive ones as at least having sensible intervals that were annoyingly cool - i know, two of those years destroyed my garden.   

 

whether the whole months worked out that way or not, they contained substantive cool episodes enough to mar the times spans.   

 

the operational runs and tele's are hell bent on a 4-peat. 

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You sound like a man who is desperate. Trying to swim against the inevitable tide that is sweeping away your dreams of a June inferno.

 

It's the opposite of winter where a better pattern looked just ten days away.  Here, a warmer (or seasonable) pattern is just over the horizon.  Then when it comes, it turns out to be transient. 

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