JoshM Posted May 27, 2016 Share Posted May 27, 2016 12z holds. Where's the big disco on this? I'm slightly excited here. Same here... 4k NAM peaked my interest. End of the run, but track looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted May 27, 2016 Share Posted May 27, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 27, 2016 Share Posted May 27, 2016 Didn't hold serve here. We went from 3.19" to 1.24" over the next 8 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted May 27, 2016 Share Posted May 27, 2016 HWRF/NAM4k vs CMC/GFS/Euro Who will cave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted May 27, 2016 Share Posted May 27, 2016 HWRF/NAM4k vs CMC/GFS/Euro Who will cave? The NAM and the HWRF will either cave or be wrong. It's awfully tough to bet against the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 27, 2016 Share Posted May 27, 2016 SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Shower and thunderstorm activity has become more concentrated with the area of low pressure located about 450 miles southeast of Charleston, South Carolina. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating the low to determine if it has acquired a well-defined surface circulation. Environmental conditions are favorable for this system to become a tropical cyclone later today or on Saturday while it moves west-northwestward toward the southeastern United States coast. Interests from Georgia through North Carolina should monitor the progress of this low. If advisories are not initiated this afternoon, the next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this disturbance will be issued by 8 PM EDT this evening. For additional information on this system, please see High Seas Forecasts as well as products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS Header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO Header FZNT01 KWBC. $$ Forecaster Stewart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 27, 2016 Share Posted May 27, 2016 10-20 knot flight level winds around the center. Recon going for 3rd pass. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted May 27, 2016 Share Posted May 27, 2016 10-20 knot flight level winds around the center. Recon going for 3rd pass. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/ Just recorded 31 kt flight-level winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 27, 2016 Share Posted May 27, 2016 4-8" right over Shetley!!? Say it ain't so!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted May 27, 2016 Share Posted May 27, 2016 Just recorded 31 kt flight-level winds. If it's gone tropical, she's a depression right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 27, 2016 Share Posted May 27, 2016 @nsj 12s12 seconds ago BREAKING: @NHC_Atlantic will initiate advisories on TD #Two beginning at 5pm. This will include a Tropical Storm WARNING for the SC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted May 27, 2016 Share Posted May 27, 2016 @nsj 12s12 seconds ago BREAKING: @NHC_Atlantic will initiate advisories on TD #Two beginning at 5pm. This will include a Tropical Storm WARNING for the SC coast. Beat me to it. Yes, saw this on FB from ILM. Ineresting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted May 27, 2016 Share Posted May 27, 2016 4-8" right over Shetley!!? Say it ain't so!? It's not. That system will stay 150-200 miles farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 27, 2016 Share Posted May 27, 2016 4 retweets 0 likes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted May 28, 2016 Author Share Posted May 28, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 Looks like the LLC is tucking in a bit on that lead blob of convection, its hard to tell for sure though on shortwave loops, might nudge the track north a bit though, still sheared and overall a huge mess. The general SE flow its in however should make for a wet weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 11PM - quicker turn OTS... 0 retweets 0 likes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted May 28, 2016 Author Share Posted May 28, 2016 Regardless of track/stalling...moisture flow will extend all the way to Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted May 28, 2016 Author Share Posted May 28, 2016 It will be nasty if it can get that far west...discrete low top cells High Point/Raleigh corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 11PM - quicker turn OTS... 0 retweets 0 likes East coast storm shield remains in place. The 0z NAM cut way down on rainfall totals across the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 East coast storm shield remains in place. The 0z NAM cut way down on rainfall totals across the state.Shetley Shield-Activated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 3 retweets 0 likes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 8:00 AM - still a depressing looking tropical depression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 Looks like the warmer Gulf-stream waters have helped the convection over the past few hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 Second vortex makes much more sense Yeah, that seems much more reasonable than 46 kt. Still, I wouldn't be surprised if we see an upgrade at 11:00. It seems pretty close to, if not already at, weak TS strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 11AM Saturday: Hugging the coast a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted May 28, 2016 Author Share Posted May 28, 2016 GFS out to 36, HWRF out to 42, and NAM out to 35 all support a good thumping of tropical rains west of i77. 1-3" at least I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 Looks like .25 or less , west of a line from Wilkesboro to GSP , no matter how much ms paint you use or birds that are around! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 Gonna have to see how far inland it goes and how persistent the llc is, still this is going to be pretty much a nothing event, I hope they dont waste a name on it. I am not a big fan of naming storms based off a few wind gust away from the center in the thunderstorm complex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 Gonna have to see how far inland it goes and how persistent the llc is, still this is going to be pretty much a nothing event, I hope they dont waste a name on it. I am not a big fan of naming storms based off a few wind gust away from the center in the thunderstorm complex. Yes, it seems to be a series of interactions between the ULL complex and airmass over the continent and the TUTT at sea. The ULL slowed down and the TUTT and its developing lows began retrograde motion around the same time. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wv_central+/72h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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