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May 2016 Banter


jburns

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So, where in the bloody hell is this super duper desert dry catastrophic LA NINA that we were supposed to flip to this spring/summer again?

 

Sick and tired of rain every day. I've literally seen rain/storms every single day since last Wednesday. I'm ready for the friggin' drought.

Don't feel bad. It's rained up in DC for 15 consecutive days now. Yesterday broke the record for most days in a row.

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JAMSTEC DJF Surface Temp Anomaly (time to head for Alaska):

Amazing how that type of long range forecast will verify

It is a major concern for this upcoming winter as it almost surely will not be as rewarding for cold or snow lovers as this past year

I can see overnight lows of 53 degrees already at 5000 feet for periods of time next winter

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nchighcountrywx, on 11 May 2016 - 3:07 PM, said:

Amazing how that type of long range forecast will verify

It is a major concern for this upcoming winter as it almost surely will not be as rewarding for cold or snow lovers as this past year

I can see overnight lows of 53 degrees already at 5000 feet for periods of time next winter

Lol..I'm sure you might get one night of 53; with a raging south wind.

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Wow, found out why the Airforce choice of model is the GALWEM and not the GFS. Forecast for RJTY had 12c at 0000z and GALWEM had 18c. It was already 16c at Yokota AB at 2200Z. Either the GFS just completely sucks for helping with a forecast over Japan and South Korea, or it sucks entirely. The verification scores have been poor recently, but I believe it just got upgraded today. Let's see if that makes any difference.

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Wow, found out why the Airforce choice of model is the GALWEM and not the GFS. Forecast for RJTY had 12c at 0000z and GALWEM had 18c. It was already 16c at Yokota AB at 2200Z. Either the GFS just completely sucks for helping with a forecast over Japan and South Korea, or it sucks entirely. The verification scores have been poor recently, but I believe it just got upgraded today. Let's see if that makes any difference.

FWIW - this was posted this morning re: GFS upgrade.

 

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 47m47 minutes ago Pennsylvania, USA

Horrid start with GFS upgrade 12z yesterday as its 5-10 was lousy compared to what is going on ( new run)

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12Z shows 43 for here... forecast calling for 50.

12z is still off a good bit, but the 6z was crazy. It had me down to 39 Monday morning. Our forecast low is at 50 for Monday. I just can't see that 39 here and the 20's in the mountains that the 6z had verifying. 

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... Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 3 am Monday to noon MDT
Tuesday...

The National Weather Service in Denver has issued a Winter
Weather Advisory
for snow... which is in effect from 3 am tonight to
noon MDT Tuesday. The conditions will be worst in the higher
mountian passes.

* Timing... snow will begin late tonight... and become heavy at
times Monday afternoon and evening.

* Snow accumulations... total accumulations of two to two and a
half feet
will be possible above 10000 feet by midday Tuesday.
Expect up to 4 inches tonight and up to 8 inches Monday.

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It's felt like spring, summer, and fall here this month.

 

It feels like summer everyday down here. :lol:

 

I don't start work until next Monday, so I have spent the first couple days of this week doing some exploring.  There's definitely some nice outdoors stuff to do down here... if you can stand the heat. :)

 

St. Marks Nature Preserve is really nice.  I got an annual pass there and plan to be back on a regular basis.  Too bad they are renovating the lighthouse right now.

 

I got my FL driver's license and car registered in FL this morning, which was surprisingly easy.  I was in and out in around 20 minutes.  I don't know if I was lucky or if it was because it was a Monday morning, or maybe FL is just that much better at DMVing than NC. ;)

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