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2 Snow chances early this week


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Figured only a couple days, and multiple threads are discussing this possibility,

Nam and GGEM seem to currently be the most bullish with 1-3" of snow possible and 3-6+ the further north you travel...

Also fwiw, today's euro drops 4-6" from the Monday/Tuesday event for most the Hudson valley, points N+W

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How can you say that when this event is a weak event? Every model has blocking with this storm.

Where is the cold going to come from next weekend? Just because there is an L on the map off the east coast does not equal snowstorm. You need cold air for it to snow. I don't care how much blocking there is, it means nothing without cold air. This isn't January
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Where is the cold going to come from next weekend? Just because there is an L on the map off the east coast does not equal snowstorm. You need cold air for it to snow. I don't care how much blocking there is, it means nothing without cold air. This isn't January

There is a trough next weekend that is going to swing through. That will bring the cold air. Now the question will be  if the cold air can make it in time for the storm.  Right now it's most likely rain but long way out.

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Yeah, to get heavy rain to change to snow over the northeast with a really amped up coastal in early April

a closed low is the key like 4/1/97. But storm details past 120 this year have changed once we got closer in.

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1997/us0331.php

Euro was in the perfect spot for snow here. EPS has the storm but it's closer to the coast.

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Yep

 

Should be interesting to track. :popcorn:

 

How many times this year did you bite on an OP run 6 or 7 days out only to get scorched ? 

 

I lost count .

 

My suggestion to you this summer is stay hydrated . 

 

ecmwf_T850_us_6.png

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How many times this year did you bite on an OP run 6 or 7 days out only to get scorched ?

I lost count .

My suggestion to you this summer is stay hydrated .

ecmwf_T850_us_6.png

The op Euro and even the EPS has been horrible this past winter in the long range. Overamping everything and showing fantasy major snowstorms/blizzards that never pan out. I can't ever remember it being this bad
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It's rain

At 150 hours it's below freezing at every level (even at the surface) and is most certainly snow. It's obviously in fantasy range, but verbatim that certainly changes to snow even for coastal locations. These antics are getting a little old, no one is saying it will happen, but it certainly shows snow.
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At 150 hours it's below freezing at every level (even at the surface) and is most certainly snow. It's obviously in fantasy range, but verbatim that certainly changes to snow even for coastal locations. These antics are getting a little old, no one is saying it will happen, but it certainly shows snow.

Who cares what a rouge operational run shows over a week out? You use ensembles at this range. How many times are you guys going to get smoked buying into long range op runs this year? Look at the 0z GEFS and tell me that screams snowstorm to you
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Who cares what a rouge operational run shows over a week out? You use ensembles at this range. How many times are you guys going to get smoked buying into long range op runs this year? Look at the 0z GEFS and tell me that screams snowstorm to you

Tony posted about the gfs. You claimed it showed rain. It showed snow. The end.

But yes, odds of the storm happening like the gfs showed are very slim.

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