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April Observations


mackerel_sky

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A PAIR OF MCVS...EMBEDDED IN THE MOIST ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM
BRANCH... ESSENTIALLY SPLIT THE CWA EARLIER THIS MORNING. THIS
RESULTED IN A PRECIPITATION MINIMUM ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF CENTRAL
NC. THE EXCEPTION WAS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
WHERE THE SOUTHERN MOST MCV HELPED TO SUPPORT A STRONGER CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER WHICH PRODUCED A 0.50" SWATH OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL AREAS.

 

...

 

MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH 40-50KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FEATURING LONG STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT A
THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING
BEFORE NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION SETS IN...DIMINISHING
THE SEVERE THREAT.

WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...PRECIP/RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS THE NEXT
BATCH OF SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS INTERCEPTS THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVING
COLD FRONT. HEAVIEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST...WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A HALF INCH IN THE WEST TO OVER AN
INCH IN THE EAST.

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Only .28 here overnight,what happened to the rounds of heavy rain forecasted?

More hype and hysteria as usual trying to get the public worked up.

It was just an April fools joke just like our current forecast here.

Cloudy and 81. Sun came out for a bit earlier. Might actually get some light rain now instead of sprinkles.

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Tornado watch extended till 4am.

Light rain currently.

The line of storms apparently had damaging winds the entire time, I was just on the side of town where there was a lull in the winds. We barely had any in my backyard.

2206 UNK NE WAYCROSS WARE GA 3121 8236 DISPATCH REPORTS SEVERAL TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN AROUND WAYCROSS. (JAX)

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This sounds a little ominous for tonight. If it pans out, I'm going to be glad our rainfall was on the lighter side.

 

 

 

FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A 3000-4000 FT DEEP MIXED LAYER WITH 45 KT WESTERLY FLOW
THEREIN. IN THE ABSENCE OF A NOCTURNAL INVERSION...ONE WOULD EXPECT
WESTERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40-50
MPH.
..THOUGH THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK/SHALLOW NOCTURNAL INVERSION
WOULD INHIBIT MIXING AND RESULT IN WESTERLY WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 15-
20 MPH GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. INTERESTINGLY...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
BROKEN/OVERCAST CEILINGS DEVELOPING FOR A FEW HRS AROUND 06Z
TONIGHT...SUGGESTING DOWNWARD IR FROM CLOUD COVER MAY WEAKEN THE
SHALLOW NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND ALLOW A PERIOD OF ENHANCED MIXING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...A FEW DOWNED TREES WOULD BE
POSSIBLE AND A SHORT FUSED WIND ADVISORY OR STATEMENT MIGHT BE
NECESSARY.

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Kinda surprised at the lack of wind or even gusts, given what had been mentioned in the recent AFDs/forecasts. Not complaining, because we don't need any more trees down. I know 60-70 were common in Indiana last night, and they were restricting traffic on the bay bridge... glad we dodged the wind bullet.

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