SmokeEater Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Somewhat high end severe seems likely this afternoon and evening in AL and MS, meso discussion out from NE LA to NE MS for a tornado watch being likely. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0306 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0130 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NERN LA...CNTRL AND NRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 311830Z - 312030Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM CNTRL AND NERN LA NEWD INTO CNTRL AND NRN MS. TORNADOES...WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN MS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE SWWD ACROSS WRN MS INTO NERN AND CNTRL LA. WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DISTINCT CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LOCATED FROM ERN LA NNEWD ALONG THE MS RIVER INTO WRN TN. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S F AND MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED FROM NEAR 1500 J/KG IN NERN LA TO AROUND 750 J/KG IN NERN MS. OVER THE LAST HOUR...RADAR TRENDS SHOW CONVECTION TRYING TO INITIATE IN WRN MS BUT THIS PROCESS MAY TAKE AN HOUR OR SO. THE HRRR IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS THINKING...SUGGESTING THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN NW MS AND NERN LA IN THE 19Z TO 20Z TIMEFRAME WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS IN CNTRL AND NERN MS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 60 KT WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES NEAR 350 M2/S2. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC SSELY FLOW ACROSS NERN MS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS NERN LA AND WRN MS...SFC WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUGGESTING THAT THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LESS. STILL...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER NE LA AND WRN MS WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. ..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 03/31/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 In this forum weather doesn't exist outside of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 31, 2016 Author Share Posted March 31, 2016 In this forum weather doesn't exist outside of NC.Yup I know, if it's not in the Carolina's or GA, nobody cares, just figured I'd post it anyway. At least it's in the right forum. Tornado watch just issued for all of MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 In this forum weather doesn't exist outside of NC. bango dude! Everything is going as expected Gulf storms robbing rain totals for NC today and clouds keeping instability at bay for late tonight. Still will see a few gusty wet storms tonight but widespread severe not expected just isolated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 bango dude! Everything is going as expected Gulf storms robbing rain totals for NC today and clouds keeping instability at bay for late tonight. Still will see a few gusty wet storms tonight but widespread severe not expected just isolated. Looks like a chance of widely scattered birds, with a slight chance of healing skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Yup I know, if it's not in the Carolina's or GA, nobody cares, just figured I'd post it anyway. At least it's in the right forum. Tornado watch just issued for all of MS. Decent probs on the watch too given the overall nature of the setup....50/30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Cell SW of Carson MS getting a large rotation on it just south of Prentiss..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 The storm near Columbus on the MS/AL border looks like it could do something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Spann doing his thing. http://abc3340.com/live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 31, 2016 Author Share Posted March 31, 2016 There's been multiple TDS's with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 https://twitter.com/samtaylor79/status/715684097431998464 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Cell in southern GA looking pretty nasty as well....tor warned on it now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Cell in southern GA looking pretty nasty as well....tor warned on it now....Two separate tornado warning on that mini storm complex in SW GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 There's been multiple TDS's with it. Cycled but looks ready to go again now..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 31, 2016 Author Share Posted March 31, 2016 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0315 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0652 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...AL...MS...FAR SRN TN... CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 70...72... VALID 312352Z - 010045Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 70...72...CONTINUES. SUMMARY...ALL SEVERE HAZARDS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE LONGEST DURATION TORNADO RISK POTENTIALLY CENTERED ON NWRN/N-CNTRL AL AND EXTREME SRN TN. DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS CELLS ARE ONGOING FROM MIDDLE TN INTO SRN MS/AL. OVERALL CONVECTIVE MODE HAS EVOLVED INTO A MIX OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND CLUSTERS. WHILE ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS REGIME...RECENT VWP DATA AT BMX/HTX/MXX HAVE SAMPLED SOME BACKING AND STRENGTHENING OF WINDS AOB 1 KM AGL. THIS ENLARGEMENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH IS YIELDING 0-1 KM SRH AROUND 250-300 M2/S2. WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVING OVERSPREAD ALL BUT NERN AL AS AN EARLIER LARGE-SCALE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW DECAYED...SETUP MAY SUPPORT A COMPARATIVELY LONGER DURATION TORNADO RISK ACROSS MOST OF NRN AL INTO LATE EVENING. ..GRAMS.. 03/31/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Couplet on the cell north of the tornadic one in AL now as well NW of Fayette..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Couplet on the cell north of the tornadic one in AL now as well NW of Fayette..... It's trying for sure but the mothership storm may eat it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Could wrap up into a beast here in a couple minutes. TWO possible TORs in the same county. Geez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Could wrap up into a beast here in a couple minutes. yeah warned now.....looks really good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 1, 2016 Author Share Posted April 1, 2016 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL711 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016ALC057-010045-/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-160401T0045Z/FAYETTE AL-711 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT FORNORTHWESTERN FAYETTE COUNTY... AT 710 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WASLOCATED NEAR BLUFF...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF FAYETTE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT25 MPH.THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES... BUSINESSES...AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...WINFIELD...GLEN ALLEN...BLUFF...HUBBERTVILLE AND BAZEMORE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Cell north of Fayette was very impressive on velocity the last few scans, seems to have peaked about 5 minutes ago. Might be cycling now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Spann is saying north couplet was confirmed TOG.... Spann just showed a picture of a large tornado with the northern couplet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Cycling done. Has to be a TOG again looking at velocity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Cycling done. Has to be a TOG again looking at velocity. no doubt and its breaking stuff based on that last scan....was really close to the school in Hubbertsville according to google earth.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 I have a massive debris signature on my radar SSW of Eldridge, AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 no doubt and its breaking stuff based on that last scan....was really close to the school in Hubbertsville according to google earth.... Definitely hit something. CC has blown up a large ball the last 2 scans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Definitely hit something. CC has blown up a large ball the last 2 scans. Bet it was the school not a lot else out there to blown it up like that......might just slip south of Eldridge...still gonna hit some homes and stuff though even if it goes a bit south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Eldridge, AL population: 130 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Eldridge, AL population: 130 A small target but it looks like the damn thing might get them anyways..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kperk014 Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Two confirmed tornadoes have bee traveling the Alabama-Tennessee state line. The first one hit downtown Ardmore and the trailing storm is following the same path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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