2016 Severe Storm Thread

[PowellVolz]

Got a nice panoramic view of a shelf cloud moving into N Knox Co around 8pm with that 2nd line of showers. It bowed out just a bit right before it got to me.

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[jaxjagman]

Got a nice panoramic view of a shelf cloud moving into N Knox Co around 8pm with that 2nd line of showers. It bowed out just a bit right before it got to me.

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Nice,get much gust out of that?

[Stovepipe]

Got a nice panoramic view of a shelf cloud moving into N Knox Co around 8pm with that 2nd line of showers. It bowed out just a bit right before it got to me.

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Very cool photo, thanks for sharing that!

[nrgjeff]

Love the picture. Nice shelfie! System yesterday would have been a great northwest flow event in June. 850 winds were southwest, but it was northwest upstairs yielding great turning with height. With June dewpoints we would have been rockin' on Rocky Top!

[Stovepipe]

Love the picture. Nice shelfie! System yesterday would have been a great northwest flow event in June. 850 winds were southwest, but it was northwest upstairs yielding great turning with height. With June dewpoints we would have been rockin' on Rocky Top!

 

[jaxjagman]

Still looks like the best severe threat is Tuesday,Bigger threat should be around the western valley where somewhat better wind shear should be.Instability looks good though for some possible strong storms even into the Mid Valley

[jaxjagman]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
310 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG RIDGING TO OUR WEST AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ARE CREATING A NW FLOW OVER MIDDLE TN. SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE INITIATING DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STRETCHING
FROM NRN MO BACK TO SD. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO FIRE ACROSS
MO/IL AND TRACK SOUTHEAST...AFFECTING CENTRAL KY AND POSSIBLY
NRN/NERN MIDDLE TN TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WEAKENS A BIT OVERNIGHT AND
THE HRRR SHOWS MORE CONVECTION TRACKING ACROSS OUR NERN HALF OF
THE CWA AS A RESULT. BUT GIVEN OUR DRY WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC
WOULD THINK MOST ACTIVITY WOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST...POSSIBLY CLIPPING A FEW OF OUR NERN COUNTIES. KEPT SLIGHT
CHC POPS OVERNIGHT AND ALL OTHER AREAS DRY.

A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS BEGINS TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST
ON SUNDAY...PUSHING THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OVERHEAD AND KEEPING
US MOSTLY DRY UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. WITH RETURN FLOW ON SUNDAY...DO
NOT SEE ANY REASON TO NOT GO MID 80S FOR HIGHS SO WILL BUMP THOSE
CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS FOR SUNDAY UP A FEW DEGREES. THAT FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AROUND...BUT
STILL THINK LOW 80S FOR HIGHS ON AVERAGE WILL BE MET.

THEREAFTER...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS WILL TRACK TOWARDS
THE DAKOTAS...SWINGING A LOBE OF ENERGY ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY
MON NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING MOVING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS WRN
TN...MAYBE CLIPPING AREAS OF MIDDLE TN ALONG AND WEST OF I-65.
FORECAST SFC CAPE IS FAIR BUT THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS GOOD
(40-50KT). IF SFC CAPE IS REALIZED EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...LOOKS
LIKE A DECENT SHOT AT STRONG-SEVERE STORMS. THE FORCING GETS MESSY
ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE ENVIRONMENT STAYS UNSTABLE SO MAY HAVE A
STRONG-SEVERE STORM THREAT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL. WITHOUT A
STRONG FORCING MECHANISM OVERHEAD OTHER THAN HEATING OF THE
DAY...WILL JUST KEEP CHC POPS AROUND. ON THURSDAY A MORE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM THE PAC
NW PUSHES THROUGH MIDDLE TN. THIS LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER CHC FOR
POSSIBLE STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WITH THE FROPA THURSDAY BUT THAT
WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HEATING OF
THE DAY. SHOULD BE DRY BEHIND THAT FRONT WITH TEMPS STAYING MILD.

[jaxjagman]

ATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
305 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES REMAIN SUNNY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. HIGH PRESSURE WAS NEAR NEW ORLEANS
LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO TONIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN MORE DRY WEATHER FOR TONIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING FAIRLY MILD AS LOWS SUNDAY MORNING
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NICE
DAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S.

A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE PLAINS SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY EVENING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WEST TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH
LOWS MONDAY MORNING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THIS ROUND
WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF MOVING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. SPC DOES HAVE MUCH OF ARKANSAS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
MONDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AS HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

ON TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST TEXAS. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STARTING TO MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AND WEAKEN. THE RESULT WILL BE MORE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY WITH A SMALLER CHANCE ON THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY THE
COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES.

A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND NEXT SATURDAY. THIS WILL MEAN
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD.

[jaxjagman]

Possibly a decent system in the long range,least it doesn't look to go into the high plains like this system,right now anyways

 

[PowellVolz]

Nice,get much gust out of that?

No.... Maybe 25 mph.

[jaxjagman]

No.... Maybe 25 mph.

Nice pic though,thanks for sharing.Must have been some nice wind squall then before it got to you,seems like it to me anyways,or to the east of you,looking at the pic

[jaxjagman]

Best severe chance still looks to be in the western parts of the Valley, Tuesday for this time frame,best wind shear is in this part and it diminishes somewhat the further east you go.Though some slight VBV,the main threat should be wind and hail right now,but a tornado COULD be possible.

 

[jaxjagman]

Reed Timmer and his wife filmed some awesome footage of the Colorado tornado yesterday,brave !!..lol

 

https://twitter.com/reedtimmerTVN

[jaxjagman]

[jaxjagman]

NAM showing some better bulk sheer into Mid Valley,probably not going to be right but it does show it,hailer anyways maybe.Don't see no VBV

 

[jaxjagman]

 

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1247 AM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY
   AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF
   SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK
   PLATEAU...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE
   MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND AROUND THE HILL COUNTRY OF
   TEXAS.  STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAKENING CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
   TROUGHING NOW EMERGING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...A SOUTHERLY
   LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW APPEARS LIKELY TO PERSIST OFF THE WESTERN GULF
   OF MEXICO INTO AND THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   FURTHER MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
   PLAINS...OZARK PLATEAU AND LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHERE
   SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY INCREASE THROUGH THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F.
   
   IN ADDITION TO ADVECTING WESTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE
   VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...INCREASING MOISTURE APPEARS LIKELY TO
   WORK ITS WAY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AIDED BY A MODEST
   LINGERING WEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET.  THIS LOW-LEVEL JET
   /AROUND 30 KT AT 850 MB/ IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED FROM PORTIONS
   OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
   DAY TUESDAY...AS REMNANT UPPER TROUGHING TURNS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
   OHIO VALLEY.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS
   NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU AND MIDDLE
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...IN ADVANCE OF LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGHING
   FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN EAST OF THE ROCKIES.  THIS LATTER
   DEVELOPMENT MAY BE SOMEWHAT PIECE-MEAL...WITH AN EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW
   FORECAST TO TURN NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE NORTH
   DAKOTA INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE A
   SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE IMPULSE GRADUALLY DIGS ACROSS THE
   EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND WYOMING/COLORADO ROCKIES.

   CONSIDERABLE WEAKENING OF THE STRONG HIGH-LEVEL JET NOW PROPAGATING
   ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
   PLAINS IS EXPECTED.  A CORRESPONDING WEAKENING OF LOWER/MID
   TROPOSPHERIC FLOW MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST
   REGION AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  HOWEVER...WITH
   THE APPROACH OF THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES IMPULSE...A MODEST /30-40+
   KT AT 850 MB/ LOW-LEVEL JET MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE
   SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...GENERALLY BENEATH A
   PLUME OF WARM AND MORE STRONGLY CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.

   ...LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION...
   WEAKENING CONVECTION EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY IN THE
   PERIOD...COUPLED WITH INSOLATION AND LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM
   ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC
   ZONE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS COULD PROVIDE THE
   FOCUS FOR RENEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS SUPPORTED BY
   REMNANT MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
   OF UPPER TROUGHING SHIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. 

   GIVEN DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONTINUING INFLUX OF
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND SHEAR/MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT
   BELT OF 30-40 KT WESTERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...THE
   ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.  THE
   EVOLUTION OF AN ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEARS
   POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A TENDENCY TO PROPAGATE EAST
   SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE.

   ...TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT EDWARDS PLATEAU...
   MID/UPPER FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS UNCLEAR...BUT
   MODELS SUGGEST THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
   LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THIS MAY BE AIDED BY OROGRAPHY...AND
   PERHAPS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE IMPULSE WITHIN THE
   WEAKENING HIGH-LEVEL JET.  EVEN WITH RATHER WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL
   FLOW...HIGH-LEVEL FLOW MAY REMAIN AROUND 50+ KT ACROSS THE
   REGION...CONTRIBUTING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS.  WITH
   HEATING...LARGE CAPE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES...AND THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO LARGE HAIL
   AND AT LEAST LOCALIZED STRONG SURFACE GUSTS.

   ...CENTRAL PLAINS...
   IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGHING
   PROGRESSING EAST OF THE ROCKIES...FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY CONTRIBUTE
   TO HIGH-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  STRONGEST ACTIVITY MAY BECOME
   FOCUSED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PLUME OF WARMER ELEVATED
   MIXED-LAYER AIR...WHICH MAY TEND TO SPREAD EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
   PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEBRASKA/NORTHERN KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE
   ENVIRONMENT PROBABLY WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE RISK FOR LOCALLY
   STRONG SURFACE GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN
   INITIAL ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.  AFTER DARK...EASTWARD
   TOWARD THE MISSOURI VALLEY...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS MORE
   UNCLEAR DUE TO THE APPARENT LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY CURRENTLY
   EXPECTED.

[nrgjeff]

Well the best action today looks like up on the Ohio River or northern Kentucky. MCS is coming out of Missouri and the southern tip of Illinois. It should strengthen this afternoon along the warm front. Meanwhile a Tennessee outflow boundary is wasted due to no upper air support...

 

Posted this answering a question in Central/West and figured I should share here for general severe weather forecasting:

 

Large CAPE with high pressure overhead will not lead to storms, just hot in summer. Big bubble no trouble, we say. A front and especially low pressure in the area with high CAPE could lead to storms. Model QPF has also improved in recent years, but models can struggle both directions with the cap. Whether storms will be severe also depends on what is going on upstairs.

 

I also look at jet stream winds, 500 mb PVA, and a low level jet at 850/925 mb. If they are present, with turning, odds of severe increase. Severe type depends on details at all levels such as 700 mb etc. In the short term hodographs can help.

 

Helicity is another great index to check in the shorter term say day 0-2. It is another way of looking at the turning with height and strength of wind fields. EHI energy helicity index combines it with CAPE. 

 

Same day one can discern outflow boundaries, mesolows, dry line bulges (pre-frontal troughs South) and other mesoscale features. Track them using visible satellite and surface charts. One can anticipate short-waves with water vapor satellite and look at wind profilers upstream.

 

SPC talks about mesoscale feature more in mesoscale discussions than outlooks. Speaking of them, despite some gnashing of teeth here, SPC does pretty well. Local Weather Service Area Forecast Discussions are packed with information too.

[jaxjagman]

Well the best action today looks like up on the Ohio River or northern Kentucky. MCS is coming out of Missouri and the southern tip of Illinois. It should strengthen this afternoon along the warm front. Meanwhile a Tennessee outflow boundary is wasted due to no upper air support...

 

Posted this answering a question in Central/West and figured I should share here for general severe weather forecasting:

 

Large CAPE with high pressure overhead will not lead to storms, just hot in summer. Big bubble no trouble, we say. A front and especially low pressure in the area with high CAPE could lead to storms. Model QPF has also improved in recent years, but models can struggle both directions with the cap. Whether storms will be severe also depends on what is going on upstairs.

 

I also look at jet stream winds, 500 mb PVA, and a low level jet at 850/925 mb. If they are present, with turning, odds of severe increase. Severe type depends on details at all levels such as 700 mb etc. In the short term hodographs can help.

 

Helicity is another great index to check in the shorter term say day 0-2. It is another way of looking at the turning with height and strength of wind fields. EHI energy helicity index combines it with CAPE. 

 

Same day one can discern outflow boundaries, mesolows, dry line bulges (pre-frontal troughs South) and other mesoscale features. Track them using visible satellite and surface charts. One can anticipate short-waves with water vapor satellite and look at wind profilers upstream.

 

SPC talks about mesoscale feature more in mesoscale discussions than outlooks. Speaking of them, despite some gnashing of teeth here, SPC does pretty well. Local Weather Service Area Forecast Discussions are packed with information too.

That was a nice video David posted in that sub

[nrgjeff]

That was a nice video David posted in that sub

 

Yes the video is excellent. All those emotions are very real, from concern for others to jubilation at the intercept. Also the Top 5 video shows incredible motion.

 

The cyclical nature of that supercell with storm speed the same as the speed the boundary retreats was textbook and somewhat rare. It is arguably better than riding a stationary boundary. I think the storm creates the environment; so, the speeds matching is a little more than coincidence. Some of the big ones April 27, 2011 did the same thing.

 

Little voice in me says I should have taken my chase trip this sequence. However, regardless of model mayhem, I think the Plains will tee up again in late May.

[jaxjagman]

Good light show on going to the N of us

 

 

 

[John1122]

Huge hailers across Southern Kentucky earlier, some softball sized stuff possible at one point earlier.

[rbowman]

I just reported 2 inch hail in Hermitage to the Skywarn number. Biggest hail I've ever seen here!

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[jaxjagman]

Saw all the storms in Ky,few tornadoes.That was an an impressive cell over Hermitage that was close to where that pic i posted above,seen the hail marker.It's still going. left a 3" marker S of Lebanon

[nrgjeff]

Kentucky went all Great Plains yesterday. Tornado pics and video feature nice contrast, great visibility, and intense motion. Time and time again once the Plains gets its act together, action tends to spread downstream through Illinois into Kentucky. Models and humans tend to weaken it on the way east. However in May the parameters tend to hold together in spite of forecast bias. Most legendary Plains sequences have action in the Midwest and/or Midsouth also. This year I favor the Midwest.

[jaxjagman]

[Chinook]

I heard that there was 6" of rain and major flooding (flash flooding?) north of Nashville

[jaxjagman]

I heard that there was 6" of rain and major flooding (flash flooding?) north of Nashville

Think that was Bethpage/Hartsville /Westmoreland area

 

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OHX&product=LSR&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

[jaxjagman]

 

 

 

 

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0752 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016

   VALID 121300Z - 131200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS MID SOUTH...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM PORTIONS S TX TO
   CAROLINAS AND LAKE ERIE VICINITY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHEAST LOWER
   MICHIGAN THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TO THE ARKLAMISS AND
   ARKLATEX REGIONS.  ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS.

   --- TECHNICAL DISCUSSION ---

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PROGRESSIVE UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER CONUS...CHARACTERIZED
   BROADLY BY...
   1.  AMPLIFYING/EWD-MOVING RIDGE ACROSS PAC COAST REGION...AND
   DOWNSTREAM...
   2.  SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING CYCLONIC-FLOW BELT SW-SE OF
   500-MB CYCLONE NOW CENTERED OVER SERN AB.  THAT CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE
   ONLY VERY SLOWLY EWD TO ADJOINING PARTS OF NWRN ONT THROUGH PERIOD.
   LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW LOCATED FROM CENTRAL IA SWWD ACROSS
   ERN KS TO NERN NM -- WILL WEAKEN AS NRN PART ACCELERATES NEWD ACROSS
   UPPER MI AND LS.  SRN PART WILL MERGE WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH...NOW
   EVIDENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM SERN ND SSWWD TO NWRN KS.
   COMBINED PERTURBATION THEN SHOULD REACH MID/UPPER MS VALLEY BY
   00Z...PIVOTING EWD TO LOWER MI...WRN OH...WRN TN AND NRN AL BY END
   OF PERIOD.

   AT SFC...COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED AT 11Z FROM DIFFUSE OCCLUSION AREA
   OVER NRN IL/SRN WI...SSWWD OVER SRN MO THEN ARCHING SWWD ACROSS NWRN
   AR...SERN OK...AND TX PERMIAN BASIN.  SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
   WERE EVIDENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM TX TO MID SOUTH...INCLUDING
   ONE FROM PRIOR CONVECTION NOW LOCATED FROM NERN AR EWD ACROSS MID
   TN.  BY 00Z...COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE TO WRN INDIANA...WRN TN...NWRN
   LA AND LOWER PECOS RIVER REGION OF SW TX.

   ...LOWER GREAT LAKES TO MID SOUTH...
   INTERMITTENTLY SVR MCS WITH WELL-DEVELOPED COLD POOL WAS APPARENT
   OVER E-CENTRAL AR...AND SHOULD MOVE INTO DESTABILIZING AIR MASS
   ACROSS MID SOUTH TODAY WITH PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING GUSTS.
   MAIN CORRIDOR OF INTEREST FOR RELATIVELY CONCENTRATED/ORGANIZED SVR
   POTENTIAL NOW APPEARS TO BE FROM THAT COMPLEX EWD ACROSS TN AND
   PERHAPS PARTS OF ADJOINING STATES.  THIS CORRIDOR IS MARKED BY
   AFOREMENTIONED...NEARLY E-W OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACTING IN SEVERAL
   SUPPORTIVE CAPACITIES...INCLUDING...
   1.  NRN BOUND FOR RELATIVELY RICH THETAE OF GULF AIR
   MASS...CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 60S F.  THIS WILL
   SUPPORT 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE.
   2.  LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/LIFT ZONE AND RELATED FOCUS FOR FORWARD
   PROPAGATION AND CONTINUED LEADING-EDGE DEVELOPMENT THAT MAY HELP TO
   RE-INTENSIFY/MAINTAIN MCS...AS WELL AS SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
   DEVELOPMENT E OF THAT ACTIVITY.

   MCV RELATED TO THAT CONVECTION WAS APPARENT IN COMPOSITE-
   REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS OVER NRN AR...AND SHOULD PIVOT EWD TO ENEWD
   TODAY TO PROVIDE REGIONALLY ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT
   IN SUPPORT OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS WELL.

   AIR MASS FARTHER N WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAKER LOW-LEVEL AND
   DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES...AS WELL AS SMALLER VALUES OF BOUNDARY-LAYER
   THETAE.  HOWEVER...MRGL DEEP SHEAR WILL DEVELOP FOR ISOLATED TO
   SCATTERED TSTMS...INCLUDING A FEW ORGANIZED MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF
   HAIL/GUSTS NEAR SVR LEVELS.

[PowellVolz]

Had a storm last night that produced a 42mph gust and dime/nickel size hail.

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[jaxjagman]

Had a storm last night that produced a 42mph gust and dime/nickel size hail.

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We might do decent here far as rain,some MCS look like they might come through before the front.We haven't seen much of anything the last several days here