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Eastern TX/AR/LA flood threat


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The flooding is going to be historic in places. The 00z ECWMF gives a large swath of the area 12" of rain with a bullseye of 17.4".

 

and the 12z GFS remains active after day 10....this will be a developing story as time goes on

 

the lower Red/Atchafalaya and lower MS rivers 

 

might be interesting how the flood control will work out at Red River landing if both rivers go into major flood

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SE side of Shreveport getting trained

 

615 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016  
 
...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CST  
TUESDAY FOR SOUTHWESTERN COLUMBIA...SOUTHWESTERN LAFAYETTE AND  
SOUTHEASTERN MILLER COUNTIES...CADDO...WEST CENTRAL BIENVILLE...  
BOSSIER...WEBSTER...DE SOTO...WEST CENTRAL CLAIBORNE AND NORTHWESTERN  
RED RIVER PARISHES...  
 
AT 610 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING  
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.  SPOTTERS AND AMATEUR ARE  
REPORTING WATER FLOWING ACROSS ROADS OR FLOODED ROADWAYS IN  
SHREVEPORT PROPER AND THE STONEWALL AREAS. RADAR IS ESTIMATING  
WIDESPREAD 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE WARNING AREA...WITH  
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING.

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Shreveport radar is undoing the total rainfall so far by 40-50%. Shreveport (DTN) has 3.1" as of 7 pm CDT. SHV 3.41" Minden Airport to the east has 4.5" radar showing ~2" and ~3" at those locales currently. Likely 6-7"+ to the SE of the city now.

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ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  

FLASH FLOOD WARNING  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  

1243 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016  

   

..FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA  

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS EXTENDED THE  

 

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  

SOUTHEASTERN CADDO PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...  

SOUTHEASTERN BOSSIER PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...  

SOUTHERN WEBSTER PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...  

NORTHWESTERN DE SOTO PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...  

NORTHWESTERN RED RIVER PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...  

 

* UNTIL 600 AM CST  

 

* AT 1237 AM CST...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS CONTINUED TO  

REPORT WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING DUE TO EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN  

ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR.  

HIGH WATER RESCUES HAVE BEEN ONGOING...AND MANY HIGHWAYS AND ROADS  

ARE CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER FROM FLOODING. HIGH WATER IS ALSO  

AFFECTING SOME HOMES IN BOSSIER AND WEBSTER PARISHES AS WELL AS  

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA.  

 

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST  

LOUISIANA.  

 

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...  

SHREVEPORT...BOSSIER CITY...MINDEN...HAUGHTON...STONEWALL...SIBLEY...  

DOYLINE...DIXIE INN...DUBBERLY...EASTWOOD...KEACHI...GRAND CANE...  

LONGSTREET...NOLES LANDING...MC DADE...ROBSON...KEAT CHIE...TAYLORTOWN...  

FILLMORE AND COUCHWOOD.  

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At 5 am CDT

 

Barksdale AFB 10.90"

SHV 5.97"

Monroe 7.95"

Minden 9.69"

 

 

0435 AM
03/09/2016

FLASH FLOOD

EMERGENCY MNGR

MINDEN
WEBSTER LA

32.62
- 93.28

Remarks:

ALL MAJOR ROADWAYS ON THE SOUTH END OF WEBSTER PARISH ARE FLOODED AND CLOSED. TRAVEL IS VERY DIFFICULT EVEN WHERE IT IS POSSIBLE. FLOOD WATERS ARE DEEP ENOUGH TO SWEEP A VEHICLE OFF THE ROAD. SOME OF THESE ROADS HAVE WASHED OUT.

 

Current radar continues to be very ugly for NW LA

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
FLASH FLOOD WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
548 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016  
   
..FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
 
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS EXTENDED THE  
 
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHEASTERN CADDO PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...  
SOUTHEASTERN BOSSIER PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...  
SOUTHERN WEBSTER PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...  
NORTHWESTERN DE SOTO PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...  
NORTHWESTERN RED RIVER PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 900 AM CST  
 
* AT 541 AM CST...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT  
OFFICIALS CONTINUED TO REPORT WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING DUE TO  
EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING WILL  
CONTINUE TO OCCUR. NUMEROUS HIGH WATER RESCUES HAVE OCCURRED...  
AND MANY HIGHWAYS AND ROADS ARE CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER FROM  
FLOODING. HIGH WATER IS ALSO AFFECTING SOME HOMES IN BOSSIER AND  
WEBSTER PARISHES AS WELL AS OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA.  
 
THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST  
LOUISIANA.  

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615 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016  
 
VALUES REPRESENT HIGHS YESTERDAY...LOWS DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS  
AND PRECIPITATION DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS  
 
.BR SHV 0309 C DH00/TAIRZX/DH06/TAIRZP/PPDRZZ  
:  
: MAX MIN  
:ID LOCATION TEMP TEMP PCPN  
SHV : SHREVEPORT : 74 / 60 / 6.33  
DTN : SHV DOWNTOWN : 74 / 60 / 7.17  
BAD : BARKSDALE AFB : 73 / 58 / 11.39  
MLU : MONROE : 79 / 60 / 7.98  

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Looks like the heaviest  train has pushed SE of SHV but moderate rain will continue

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
816 AM CST WED MAR 09 2016  
   
.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON
 
   
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.
 
 
..REMARKS..  
 
0815 AM HEAVY RAIN 7 SE BOSSIER CITY 32.45N 93.58W  
03/09/2016 M14.44 INCH BOSSIER LA CO-OP OBSERVER  
 
CO-OP OBSERVER REPORTS 14.44 INCHES IN TAYLORTOWN..

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rain has stopped but next slug over eastern texas moving NNE..... ETA 3-4 hours

 

1026 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016  
 
...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST  
LOUISIANA...INCLUDING SHREVEPORT...BOSSIER CITY...  
HAUGHTON...MINDEN...AND STONEWALL...  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS EXTENDED THE  
 
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
CADDO PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...  
WEST CENTRAL BIENVILLE PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...  
BOSSIER PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...  
SOUTHERN WEBSTER PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...  
DE SOTO PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...  
NORTHWESTERN RED RIVER PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 230 PM CST  
 
* AT 1021 AM CST...DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES...WITH  
NUMEROUS HOMES UNDER WATER AND ROADS WASHED OUT. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL  
RATES HAVE DECREASED...FLOODING WILL BE ONGOING FOR SEVERAL MORE  
HOURS.  
 
THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR FOR THE SHREVEPORT BOSSIER  
CITY METRO AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. SEEK HIGHER

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This incoming batch could bring another couple inches to East Texas pushing some totals up near or above the 10" mark. I heard many reports of people unable to get to work this morning and saw some houses along US 69 just north of Tyler with water up to at least the back walls.

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This AFD explains it all NOWCAST time...not looki ng good along TX coast for NW  LA if radar trends continue and the training band sets up further northwest west then the models inlcuding the last RAP forecast predict

lets see if convection develops south saving them

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
402 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
MAJOR TO NEAR RECORD FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 IN EAST TEXAS AND  
LOUISIANA. SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN CADDO AND BOSSIER PARISHES HAVE  
RECORDED OVER 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL AS OF 8 AM CST THIS MORNING  
AND IT HAS CONTINUED TO RAIN ALL DAY TODAY. MULTIPLE FLASH FLOOD  
EMERGENCIES ARE IN EFFECT AND A FEW RIVER AND LAKES ARE ALREADY  
EXPECTED TO APPROACH OR EXCEED RECORD STAGE LEVELS.  
UNFORTUNATELY...MORE HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED.  
 
AS OF 2130Z...THE HEAVIEST RAIN IN THE CWA IS GENERALLY EAST OF  
A LINE FROM TOLEDO BEND TO EL DORADO ARKANSAS. SOME OF THE HIGHER  
RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVY  
RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE HRRR PLACES  
THE AXIS ABOUT 50 MILES FARTHER WEST. LOOKING AT RADAR LOOPS OVER  
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN IS LOCATED  
BETWEEN INTERSTATE 35 AND 45 SOUTH OF DALLAS/FORT WORTH AND MORE  
STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST OFFSHORE BETWEEN MATAGORDA BAY AND  
GALVESTON ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING  
WITH A NOTABLE NORTHWARD COMPONENT. UNLESS THERE IS SOME  
CONVECTIVE FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA OR  
SOME KIND OF MCV DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THESE COMPLEXES...I AM  
DOUBTFUL OF THE MORE EASTWARD PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVY RAIN AS  
SUPPORTED BY THE ARW AND A FEW OF THE HI-RES WRF MODELS BASED ON  
LATEST TRENDS.  
 
THEREFORE...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...I HAVE PLACED THE PRIMARY  
AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR FROM 00Z-12Z THURSDAY...  
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM LUFKIN TEXAS TO EL DORADO ARKANSAS. A  
DISTINCT PLUME OF HIGH PWAT VALUES...WELL OVER 2 INCHES...WILL  
REMAIN OVER THE AREA. THUS...AN ADDITIONAL 6 TO 9 INCHES OF RAIN  
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA...WITH SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO  
10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING  
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR OR OVER 2 FEET.
THIS WILL ADD TO  
AN ALREADY HISTORIC FLASH FLOODING EVENT. WE WILL LIKELY BE  
DEALING WITH RIVER AND LAKE FLOODING FOR SOME TIME AFTER THIS.  
THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE RAIN WILL NOT BE OVER. 

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ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  

FLASH FLOOD WARNING  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  

601 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016  

 

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR OUACHITA PARISH INCLUDING THE CITY  

OF MONROE LOUISIANA...  

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A  

 

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  

OUACHITA PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...  

 

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST THURSDAY  

 

* AT 558 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED REPEATED THUNDERSTORM  

ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE  

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...ON TOP OF THE  

NEAR 10 INCHES OF RAIN THE PARISH HAS ALREADY RECEIVED OVER THE  

PAST 18 TO 24 HOURS. FLOODING IS ALREADY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE  

PARISH WITH EVACUATIONS AND HIGH WATER RESCUES BEING REPORTED  

ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PARISH. TRAVEL IS NOT RECOMMENDED  

OVERNIGHT.  

 

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR OUACHITA PARISH INCLUDING THE  

CITY OF MONROE.  

 

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18z gfs and high res NAM do indeed push the train back into shrevport in the next few hours..radar trends also support this

 

yikes

 

edit: only saving grace is a possible mesolow/MCS  developing over HOU with the band of thunderstorms their being pushed NE rather than North by outflow

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Monroe LA airport on the east side of the city has record measurable precip 27 straight hours with many more hours to go,,

 

total 13.22 inches with even heavier amounts NW of the city

 

appears SHV may be spared as outflows have stalled the train to the south..

 

but not monroe

 

some areas that got hit last night, a little south perhaps but some areas will overlap

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