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jaxjagman

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Starting to wonder if we are gonna get any rain in E Tenn soon. MRX has lowered chances for Thursday/Friday a little, not a good trend.

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Yep. Not a good trend. Been watering my garden for a couple of weeks. Ground here is bone dry. That doesn't always mean a dry summer...but the pattern for E TN is not a wet one. Maybe we can slide the pattern out of the Plains eastward for a few days. IDK. If Nina kicks in w these dry conditions, it is going to get hot and stay hot. Cool at night though.

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Hoping the dryness isn't a long term trend. It's been a long while since we've had a serious drought in the East TN area. 2007 was the last intense drought that really hit the TN Valley hard. And this pattern seems similar to back then, with the Southern Plains and Texas getting more rain than they need, and we get very little. By the end of the summer of 2007, almost the entire Southeast was covered in some sort of extreme to exceptional drought.

Getting more concerned, though I would not rule out some heavy rains if that pattern to our west slides east. But a prolonged rainy pattern for the entire summer is looking unlikely, but it is too early to tell. Creeks are getting low here. Not extreme, but low. Sometimes that makes it very difficult for them to recover during the summer if spring is dry.

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Getting more concerned, though I would not rule out some heavy rains if that pattern to our west slides east. But a prolonged rainy pattern for the entire summer is looking unlikely, but it is too early to tell. Creeks are getting low here. Not extreme, but low. Sometimes that makes it very difficult for them to recover during the summer if spring is dry.

 

If we could get a few good soaking rains before the summer high pressure sets up somewhere, then maybe we can keep ourselves out of the drought hole.   But if the summer ridge decides to set up over the Southeast this summer, similar to 2007, then all bets are off on a hot, dry summer.  The plains will win with that kind of pattern, as in 2007,  but we'll bake.  The drier we get, the more likely the ridge will just make a home here for awhile.  Drought begets more drought. 

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Yep. Not a good trend. Been watering my garden for a couple of weeks. Ground here is bone dry. That doesn't always mean a dry summer...but the pattern for E TN is not a wet one. Maybe we can slide the pattern out of the Plains eastward for a few days. IDK. If Nina kicks in w these dry conditions, it is going to get hot and stay hot. Cool at night though.

 

I did not expect to have to bring out the soaker hoses this early but it's looking like I may have to ugh!  At this point I'd be happy just to get enough rain to fill the water barrels again.  Not a good time at all to be dry from a gardening perspective.

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Current forecast projections show most of the eastern TN valley getting between .50 & 1.00 of rain between now and Saturday.  Hopefully, everyone gets in on it, especially areas battling forest fires right now in Cocke county on the North Carolina border with Tennessee. 

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Current forecast projections show most of the eastern TN valley getting between .50 & 1.00 of rain between now and Saturday. Hopefully, everyone gets in on it, especially areas battling forest fires right now in Cocke county on the North Carolina border with Tennessee.

Hoping that verfies. Models have been too robust east of the Plateau this past winter and current spring. To steal a phrase from Volquest...will have to see it to believe it(referring to a Florida win and a good soaker).
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I did not expect to have to bring out the soaker hoses this early but it's looking like I may have to ugh! At this point I'd be happy just to get enough rain to fill the water barrels again. Not a good time at all to be dry from a gardening perspective.

I know, man. Crazy. I mean when I water my garden dust flies up where the drops land. You know it is dry when it does that. Hoping Jaycee's shared qpf numbers work out!
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I know, man. Crazy. I mean when I water my garden dust flies up where the drops land. You know it is dry when it does that. Hoping Jaycee's shared qof numbers work out!

Just checked..and now the Climate Ctr has us in the .25-.50 range. At this point..I'll just be glad to get anything. I have my own doubts we'll see much, considering the pattern we are stuck in.

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AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

256 AM EDT THU APR 21 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

CURRENTLY STILL PRETTY WARM WITH SOME CLOUD COVERAGE HELPING TO

KEEP TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE

AREA FROM THE WEST AND BRING WITH IT SOME OUR BEST CHANCES FOR

RAIN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND

WINDS WILL PICK UP TODAY OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DURING THE

DAYLIGHT HOURS. RAIN WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AREAS THIS

AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD. COULD SEE A BIT OF A

DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WHICH COULD

HELP HOLD BACK RAINFALL IN THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS AND DECREASE RAINFALL

AMOUNTS OVER SOME OF THE FIRES CURRENTLY ONGOING IN SOME OF THESE

COUNTIES. CURRENTLY PRETTY DRY THIS MORNING, BUT HOPEFULLY DEW

POINT VALUES INCREASE WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS LATER, BUT IF DEW

POINTS STAY LOW WE COULD SEE LESS RAINFALL THAN CURRENTLY

PREDICTED. RIGHT NOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS POINTING TOWARDS

SEEING RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH TODAY

THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, WITH SOME PLACES RECEIVING A BIT MORE AND

OTHERS RECEIVING A BIT LESS DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE

EXPECTED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

 

 

 

After reading this morning's discussion, I'm not feeling too optimistic about not watering stuff again this weekend.  It sounds like we might just get enough rain to settle the dust. 

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Looks like a tough 10-14 days. If it is not one thing it is another. Previously wrote about split flow convergence aloft and ridging in spite of the southern stream. Now the pattern is evolving into more classic southeast ridge. Rockies trough and SER spells Plains severe, but staying warmer and drier than normal in the Tennessee Valley. Next week humidity will creep up but probably not translate into more rainfall - just more AC use. Week 3 charts have hints of more seasonable heights but it keeps getting pushed back.  :weight_lift:

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I'm afraid we may have a summer like 1986, 1993, 1999, or and 2007 on both sides of the mountains. In other words, very hot and dry from east of the Mississippi to NC and SC. The new drought monitor, just out today, showed abnormally dry conditions over a fairly large area. It's mostly east of the Tennessee valley for now, but it will probably show up more over there soon. 

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Whoops... ^_^

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
925 PM EDT THU APR 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...

PRECIPITATION IS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND
ADJUSTED POOPS UP IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. A WEAK WAVE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT IS LEADING TO THIS PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS. THE
COLD FRONT IS STILL BACK IN WESTERN TENNESSEE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT THIS EVENING BUT AFTER THE PROLONGED DRY
PERIOD...ANY PRECIPITATION IS WELCOME. CURRENT TRENDS AND HI-RES
MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES. WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST FOR THIS
EVENING WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE
ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY.
 

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This system definitely overperformed here at the house. Between last night and today, picked up 0.85in of rain! Even had some thunder with the last band late this afternoon. 2 things that have been missing so far this spring-rain, and thunder! So glad to see it. Hopefully everyone got some decent rainfall.

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This system definitely overperformed here at the house. Between last night and today, picked up 0.85in of rain! Even had some thunder with the last band late this afternoon. 2 things that have been missing so far this spring-rain, and thunder! So glad to see it. Hopefully everyone got some decent rainfall.

Bout .5 on this end of Kingsport, though some sections had more. Seemed like less. That said, thankful for what we received. Glad to see those initial amounts verify. Ground is just gobbling up the rain that fell. Also, I was pleased to see it be a soaker.

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Bout .5 on this end of Kingsport, though some sections had more. Seemed like less. That said, thankful for what we received. Glad to see those initial amounts verify. Ground is just gobbling up the rain that fell. Also, I was pleased to see it be a soaker.

 

I had .87" at my place, and a strong storm Friday evening.  However, Sevierville took the brunt of it.  I heard reports of enough hail to cover the ground there.  I guess it really did happen, because that evening I drove into town and there were still piles of it in certain spots on the ground, and on roof tops where it ran into the gutters.  It looked like it had snowed in places.  Glad my house missed that part of the storm. 

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Excellent news above! Last week was beyond brutal. I have noticed some improvement this week.

 

Figure most people have seen the advertised cool down next week into Mother's Day weekend with a big trough from the Midwest into the South. While it spells lovely weather for Mother's Day, it effectively shuts down severe weather. The CFS had extended that dreadful pattern through much of May, but it is just the CFS.

 

European weekly charts show a return to more of a split flow regime week 3 and 4. While split flow is not ideal for severe weather, anything is better than the CFS forecast. At least split flow offers opportunities, even if sloppy like this week. Plains to Midsouth would still be favored over the eastern Valley, but perhaps we can get some rain all over.

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http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mrx/?n=april272011outbreak

 

Been five years now.  That's really hard to believe.  Seems like just 2-3 years ago. 

 

April 27, 2011 was quite a night for me.  I was driving near Newport, TN when the tornado came through there.  I remember all the street lights and parking lot lights going out near Wal-Mart.  Every went pitch black, except for the near continuous lightning the storm was producing at the time.  The wind rocked my car like it was a toy.  It was one very scary night. 

 

The one thing I won't forget was how intense the lightning was with these super cells.  The sky almost stayed lit up, and the amount of cloud to ground lightning was impressive.  It was like something out of a sci-fi movie.  As much as I love a good run-of-mile summer thunderstorm, I wouldn't want to experience this kind of storm again. 

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OFB slid through tonight around 10ish,Didn't expect much of anything looking at the HRRR and NAM4K,it was showing everything was going to fizzle out west and north of us.Got a thunder non-severe storm cell with some heavy rain for a brief tiime then some elevated convection after that's still going on with still light rain going on.Never thought i'd be so happy to see rain #pollenkiller

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We had a nice cell that just went through.Didn't see any hail at my house.

 

 

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
615 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

TNZ059-020000-
WILLIAMSON TN-
615 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY
UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

AT 615 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
FRANKLIN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FRANKLIN...BRENTWOOD...NOLENSVILLE AND TRIUNE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

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