RubiksDestroyer Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The combination of the 18z GFS and now the Euro Para makes me think that the other models are wrong in pushing the low so far north and taking the high OTS so fast. Let's see if we can keep these good trends going into the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Just don't see how this can move nw with that strong of a H pressure up north Beat me to it. This has been my thoughts exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 198 people viewing this thread and nobody has stormvista? C'mon, somebody give us the details! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Because the HP is moving out. There's no blocking to keep it in place.Arctic cold and unusually low DP's, will help out alot, and models ALWAYS underestimate the wedge, and this is anomalous cold and dry, and won't just dissolve , especially if precip can get in at daybreak or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Because the HP is moving out. There's no blocking to keep it in place. There will be a strong artic airmass already in place, and with low dew points it will cool even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Well. Para Euro, GGEM (and many ensembles), Euro ensemble, GFS Ensembles. Are all alluding to a much bigger deal vs UKMET/OP Euro so far. And I'm willing to bet the cold air is under-done and honestly the Canadian may be modeling it better with the lower dewpoints. Uh oh. This has Feb 2014 written all over it for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 198 people viewing this thread and nobody has stormvista? C'mon, somebody give us the details!4-6" ATL,12+ NEGa! Courtesy of TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The simple fact that there is so much spread and inconsistency means that the atmosphere is very sensitive to small changes. Lots of uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Well. Para Euro, GGEM (and many ensembles), Euro ensemble, GFS Ensembles. Are all alluding to a much bigger deal vs UKMET/OP Euro so far. And I'm willing to bet the cold air is under-done and honestly the Canadian may be modeling it better with the lower dewpoints. Uh oh. This has Feb 2014 written all over it for my area. what's the low track on the para? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Euro para is out on storm vista, who has an update?Some overrunning precip and snow at the onset for WNC and Central NC, but it the it turns into a cutter over the apps. Trough sharpens just a tad too late and then it cuts off over Boston of course. Interesting enough it pops a surface that tracks from the FL panhandle up off the NC/SC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Some overrunning precip and snow at the onset for WNC and Central NC, but it the it turns into a cutter over the apps. Trough sharpens just a tad too late and then it cuts off over Boston of course. Interesting enough it pops a surface that tracks from the FL panhandle up off the NC/SC coast.But Mack says big snow ATL northeast? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 4-6" ATL,12+ NEGa! Courtesy of TW Nothing for Carrollton I'm guessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Some overrunning precip and snow at the onset for WNC and Central NC, but it the it turns into a cutter over the apps. Trough sharpens just a tad too late and then it cuts off over Boston of course. Interesting enough it pops a surface that tracks from the FL panhandle up off the NC/SC coast.So it has two storms with the first similar to the Euro op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozmaea Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 4-6" ATL,12+ NEGa! Courtesy of TWWhat's its saying for upstate sc and where are you seeing there totals at I would like to see that mapSent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 What's its saying for upstate sc and where are you seeing there totals at I would like to see that map Sent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk You need a pay subscription to see the data. Here are some sources : stormvista.com , weatherbell.com and eurowx.com Eurowx.com is the cheapest, but i dont think they offer the parallel run or as many variables as weatherbell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5statewx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Euro Para takes the weak low from central MS to off the GA coast and then turns it north to Hatteras, really a pretty decent track compared to most guidance. Are we allowed to post stormvista here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozmaea Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 OK thanks I'll def look them up Sent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I have WxBell but can't find Euro Para? where's it at? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I've just seen two or three descriptions of the EuroPara and they are all leaps and bounds opposite of each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I have WxBell but can't find Euro Para? where's it at? lol It may not have run on weatherbell today. Stormvista finally ran just a little bit ago. Do you mean you can't find the link location to it? If not, do the following: On the model page, find the "ECMWF Parallel HRES 0.0625° & EPS [0.125°]: " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 So it has two storms with the first similar to the Euro op?Yeah but the 12z op cut the 5h off over WNC and the 12z Para doesn't cut off until around Boston. That trailing piece of energy lags a little on the para so we miss out on the phase and possible deformation band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Euro Para takes the weak low from central MS to off the GA coast and then turns it north to Hatteras, really a pretty decent track compared to most guidance. Are we allowed to post stormvista here? No, I'd be interested in hearing snow totals. (I.e. where does the 2 inch line run? Macon to Columbia... or atlanta to charlotte? etc..) Also, surface temps and precip timing would be great if anyone wants to share. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I have WxBell but can't find Euro Para? where's it at? lol It never came on on WxBell, Frosty. It's ECMWF Parallel HRES 0.0625° & EPS [0.125°] underneath the GEFS on the left hand side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 It may not have run on weatherbell today. Stormvista finally ran just a little bit ago. Do you mean you can't find the link location to it? yeah I must be overlooking it. lol when does it get the precip started? That's is what going to make or break this storm for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 But Mack says big snow ATL northeast? TWThat's what was posted at TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 It never came on on WxBell, Frosty. It's ECMWF Parallel HRES 0.0625° & EPS [0.125°] underneath the GEFS on the left hand side. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Yeah but the 12z op cut the 5h off over WNC and the 12z Para doesn't cut off until around Boston. That trailing piece of energy lags a little on the para so we miss out on the phase and possible deformation band.I gotcha. So it's a good track just really weak? That's a whole lot better than a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5statewx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 No, I'd be interested in hearing snow totals. (I.e. where does the 2 inch line run? Macon to Columbia... or atlanta to charlotte? etc..) Also, surface temps and precip timing would be great if anyone wants to share. lol I only have surface map, but overall it's not much snow anywhere outside of the mountains. Quick burst of snow for Atlanta on Northward, maybe 1-2". CAD hangs on with surface temperatures below freezing for a good majority of the event just north of Atlanta, into N SC, and west of Raleigh, NC... but everyone switches to rain for at least some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Yeah but the 12z op cut the 5h off over WNC and the 12z Para doesn't cut off until around Boston. That trailing piece of energy lags a little on the para so we miss out on the phase and possible deformation band. 90% of this board will benefit from those parcels not phasing. It's even risky for the mountains to root for a phase, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Man I wish superjames would get back in here. He's been Mia for a few days now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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