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First Below Zero Day In NYC Since 1994


bluewave

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The Arctic recently set a new record January high temperature  at 925 mb by a wide margin.

It easily surpassed the previous record warm Januaries of 1977 and 2005. Both those

winters featured extreme Arctic outbreaks in our local area. 1977 was famous for the

duration of the cold while 2005 was noteworthy for the rapid reversal of a very warm

pattern to cold. 2005 also featured a turn to snowy with the extreme Arctic warming.

 

Record January Arctic warmth at 925 mb courtesy of the excellent Alaska Weather Blog

 

 

 

Winter 2015-2016 started out with historic warmth in December which was the most

impressive monthly warm departure that many locations ever experienced. An extreme

blocking and warmth episode developed over the Kara and expanded across the

Arctic setting the stage for the historic blizzard in NYC. This blizzard produced the

greatest daily snowfall on record for NYC. This occurred against the backdrop 

of a still mild pattern with only 10 below normal days at NYC through February 6th.

 

Warm Arctic cold continents blocking patterns have provided some of the best

blocking and snowfall patterns that we have ever seen here during the 2000's.

 

The models have been indicating that a short but extreme Arctic outbreak could

happen here around Valentine's Day. A powerful Western North American and

Arctic blocking pattern is in progress. This is leading to the development

of a frigid Arctic airmass and strong surface high pressure. Models indicate

that we could come close to record low temperatures for the date.

 

2/14 records for the local area

 

NYC....2......1916

JFK.....4.......1979

LGA....1.......1979

EWR...0.......1979

 

 

 

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Does anyone have the 850 maps from 2/15 - 2/16 last year?  That was the night I thought we were gonna do it.  The park was plummeting late that afternoon, and we had hit 5F by 9pm.  0F seemed almost certain, but then temps stalled at 4F until after 8 am the following morning.  'Twas a sign:  NYC is not getting below 0.

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Does anyone have the 850 maps from 2/15 - 2/16 last year?  That was the night I thought we were gonna do it.  The park was plummeting late that afternoon, and we had hit 5F by 9pm.  0F seemed almost certain, but then temps stalled at 4F until after 8 am the following morning.  'Twas a sign:  NYC is not getting below 0.

 

If I remember right that was not expected to be a night we did it, we all were surprised by how things dropped in the evening but the winds were decreasing and as soon as they leveled off the temp stopped dropping.  It was a few nights prior which was the best chance.

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If I remember right that was not expected to be a night we did it, we all were surprised by how things dropped in the evening but the winds were decreasing and as soon as they leveled off the temp stopped dropping.  It was a few nights prior which was the best chance.

 

Yea, I remember that too.  Also, a few days later, we had probably our best shot where we dipped to 2F over night.

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I'm going to be up at hunter mountain skiing this weekend. Satuday night looks to be around -10 to -15. Going to be brutal skiing sat aftn/sun morning

 

I went skiing last winter around President's Day in northern VT, it was probably about -20F up on the slopes.  It wasn't too bad, just gotta layer up.  The snow was freaking incredible.

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we are seeing a typical lack of below freezing days for an el nino winter and a lack of measurable snowfalls also...the el nino winters in the table below have a total of measurable snowfalls...biggest snowfall.....measurable snows...biggest snowfall...total snowfall...days 32 or lower...winter minimum...1997-98, 1982-83, 1957-58, 1963-64, 1965-66, 1968-69, 1972-73, 1994-95, 2009-10 had less 32 or below minimum that the year before and after it...only 2002-03 had more days 32 or lower than the year before and after it...since 1950 1969-70 has the most days 32 or lower with 97...2011-12 has the least amount with 37...1997-98 has the record for the least amount of measurable snowfalls...Tied with 1877-78...1972-73 holds the record for the least amount of seasonal snowfall...1918-19 holds the record for the smallest big snow with 1.4" on March 22nd...1957-58 has the lowest temperature of the bunch with 3 degrees in Mid February...1976-77 recorded a -2 for the lowest el nino minimum in recent years...

season..........measurable.........biggest snow.........total snow.....days 32 or lower........min

1997-98..............2.....................5.0" Mar. 22nd..........5.5".................49....................14

1982-83..............5...................17.6" Feb. 11th.........27.2".................53....................12

1957-58............13...................11.8" Mar. 21st.........44.7"..................59.....................3

1963-64............16...................12.5" Jan. 13th.........44.7"..................75.....................9

1965-66..............7....................6.8" Jan. 30th.........21.4"..................67.....................8

1968-69..............7...................15.3" Feb. 9th..........30.2".................82......................9

1972-73..............3.....................1.8" Jan. 30th..........2.8"..................57.....................7

1979-80..............5.....................4.6" Mar. 13th........12.8"..................70....................10

1986-87..............9.....................8.1" Jan. 25th........23.1"..................74......................4

1987-88..............7.....................5.8" Jan. 3rd..........19.1"..................74......................5

1991-92..............6.....................6.2" Mar. 19th........12.6"..................68.....................11

1994-95..............4...................10.8" Feb. 4th..........11.8"..................60......................6

2002-03............13...................19.8" Feb 17th.........49.3"..................86......................7

2006-07..............8.....................5.5" Mar 16th........12.4"..................63......................8

2009-10..............9...................20.9" Feb 25th........51.4"..................63.....................13

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There really does seem to be some type of invisible barrier preventing central Park from hitting zero, much less going below it since January 1994. In January 2004 central Park hit 1° on two separate days. On one of those days it was 2° at 10 PM and only dropped one degree by 8 AM a ten-hour stretch. Of course as someone already mentioned there was the 2° morning from last year, where they seemed to hit a wall at 4°.

 

I've always thought that because of the heat island effect, as opposed to the suburbs which usually have their coldest mornings on calm nights with a decent snowpack, the city needs somewhat of a wind with the cold air still rushing in at night to offset some of the effects of the heat Island.

 

Sunday morning will be interesting, but because of the history of the last 22 years I doubt New York City hits zero, but I'd love to finally see it.

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