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2/9-2/10 Inverted Trough/Mini-Coastal Storm


Zelocita Weather

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I think the WWA was a bit too jump the gun, the biggest difference I see since the 18z models is that they have lost that interaction with the approaching subtle shortwave m from the west so as a result now pretty much all you get is a period of snow for maybe 10-15Z and then you're done we really lost that interaction to get us that 15 to say 00Z extra snow and with that I don't see how we get 3 to 4 inches

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I can't make heads or tails out of its movement. It appears that the front half of the storm is getting pulled due east, while the other part is tracking north, with rotation that seems to be pulling it inland. I don't remember ever seeing this before.

Yeah, interesting as you say, thicker cloud deck engulfing LI and southern New England, while the outermost fringe of clouds is close to Plattsburgh NY. What this all means going forward, I have no idea!

-Jason

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you guys need to not focus directly on the low pressure, but more importantly the precipitation shield.

precip is much further west now than expected. Eastern NJ is in the game.

The system is also 3MB's stronger than currently projected, which could counter any slight eastward movement you guys may be seeing.

The movement is Easterly now, as forecasted. The precip shield can only grow so far to the west. It's not going to keep expanding past a certain point and the east movement will begin to take it with it. This is obvious now if you look at the loops out of KAKQ and KMHX. The precip shield is moving eastward back towards the coast as the low moves East and wraps up.

The central pressure is not written in stone with model depiction and that 3mb difference is likely having no impact on countering the eastward movement.

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Intense lightning / hail...almost never seen from a winter storm -

Q6L5eL.jpg

The Blizzard last weak had severe thunderstorms in the Carolinas. Lightening/thunderstorms are in fact really common on the rain/warm side of winter storms like this. It's a product of the dynamics, location and strength of the storms.

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The movement is Easterly now, as forecasted.

 

 

It's actually north-easterly now.

 

And with the lightning,  it was in regards to the intensity of the lightning...not just lightning in general. 

 

 

The precip shield is moving eastward back towards the coast as the low moves East and wraps up.

 

 

 

It's shifting back westward on the northern extent...as the low continues it's north-easterly track. 

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