NESIS Ranking - Blizzard of 2016

[IsentropicLift]

Not really a tremendous amount of differences here. Still a sharp cutoff, just about 100 miles further North.

 

[JC-CT]

Not really a tremendous amount of differences here. Still a sharp cutoff, just about 100 miles further North.

Again look at the Ohio Valley. A lot bigger difference than a hundred miles.

[ag3]

Not really a tremendous amount of differences here. Still a sharp cutoff, just about 100 miles further North.

 

The difference is Boston, which contradicts the Nesis scale because Feb.5-6, 2010-Feb. 9-10 storm were not historic storms for NYC or Boston.

So not sure why that storm ranks so high and Jan. 2016 doesn't, when Jan. 2016 included the largest metro area in America, NYC.

[ag3]

Again look at the Ohio Valley. A lot bigger difference than a hundred miles.

 

Yes, but NYC received 27"-34" with Jan. 2016, Baltimore received 29.1", DC 17"-22", Allentown, PA 32", etc. etc.

For JFK to receive 30.5", LGA 27.9" EWR 28" + NYC 27" is astounding. It wasn't a random deform band. It was a widespread Hecs that went all the way back to Allentown, PA with 30"+.

[Morris]

Yes, but NYC received 27"-34" with Jan. 2016, Baltimore received 29.1", DC 17"-22", Allentown, PA 32", etc. etc.

For JFK to receive 30.5", LGA 27.9" EWR 28" + NYC 27" is astounding. It wasn't a random deform band. It was a widespread Hecs that went all the way back to Allentown, PA with 30"+.

 

Agree

[JC-CT]

Yes, but NYC received 27"-34" with Jan. 2016, Baltimore received 29.1", DC 17"-22", Allentown, PA 32", etc. etc.

For JFK to receive 30.5", LGA 27.9" EWR 28" + NYC 27" is astounding. It wasn't a random deform band. It was a widespread Hecs that went all the way back to Allentown, PA with 30"+.

 

I'm not arguing it wasn't a HECS. Just saying the reasons I don't believe it will/should beat 96 in the NESIS rating, and highlighting that it's not just New England that is holding it back.

[Dark Star]

I vaguely remember past years where we had "debates" on what constitutes a storm referred to as a blizzard.  According to the winds at Newark, at no point were the hourly average winds sustained at 30 mph, let alone the minimum 3 hours needed to be defined as a blizzard (gusts yes, sustained no).  I would assume this to be true for most of New Jersey, except along the coast line.  While this was an epic snow storm, I don't think this was a true blizzard.  Has any other thread covered this discussion?

[donsutherland1]

I vaguely remember past years where we had "debates" on what constitutes a storm referred to as a blizzard.  According to the winds at Newark, at no point were the hourly average winds sustained at 30 mph, let alone the minimum 3 hours needed to be defined as a blizzard (gusts yes, sustained no).  I would assume this to be true for most of New Jersey, except along the coast line.  While this was an epic snow storm, I don't think this was a true blizzard.  Has any other thread covered this discussion?

Blizzard conditions were verified in parts of southern New England (https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201601240604-KBOX-NOUS41-PNSBOX). I haven't seen anything verified in New Jersey or New York, though.

[ORH_wxman]

Less area covered by 2016 vs '96 and '93....it matters.

[ForestHillWx]

Great storm; I rated it as a 4.

 

Side note, there will always be something special about Jan 96. I was 13, watching Al Roker on NBC news increasing his storm totals with each passing hour. All the while I was telling my dad, I don't think I will be going to school tomorrow, to which he replied "They are only saying 6-8", nothing crazy". He ended up plowing for 2 days straight, in a front end loader. Maybe it's because events don't scale properly in memory, but Jan 96 is the ultimate in my opinion. It is the event which got me into being a weather junky.   

[Stormlover74]

Great storm; I rated it as a 4.

 

Side note, there will always be something special about Jan 96. I was 13, watching Al Roker on NBC news increasing his storm totals with each passing hour. All the while I was telling my dad, I don't think I will be going to school tomorrow, to which he replied "They are only saying 6-8", nothing crazy". He ended up plowing for 2 days straight, in a front end loader. Maybe it's because events don't scale properly in memory, but Jan 96 is the ultimate in my opinion. It is the event which got me into being a weather junky.   

I think thats just it. Everyone remembers the storm so fondly like some of us remember 83 or 78 or storms from the 60s because it is a special story about it being the storm that got us into weather or whatever. So it will always be very highly regarded and built up in people's minds.

[SEC]

Less area covered by 2016 vs '96 and '93....it matters.

 

 

Very important to take that into account. This is not a NIMBY thing to consider; one must consider the area a storm affects when rating it (even if it does cover the most populated area in the country).

FWIW - I rated it a "3" for that very reason.

[Superstorm93]

RSI ratings are up 

 

[Metasequoia]

Thanks for posting.

6th highest rated storm on northeast list and nearly a category 5 on the RSI scale. Looks like 18.0 is the cutoff for category 5.

[JC-CT]

 

Very important to take that into account. This is not a NIMBY thing to consider; one must consider the area a storm affects when rating it (even if it does cover the most populated area in the country).

FWIW - I rated it a "3" for that very reason.

 

If anyone doesn't believe, just take a look at 1/29/14.

[Rjay]

Blizzard conditions were verified in parts of southern New England (https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201601240604-KBOX-NOUS41-PNSBOX). I haven't seen anything verified in New Jersey or New York, though.

I watched the hourly obs at JFK and a couple other locations in the nyc metro area (can't remember which ones) and blizzard criteria was met.

[Superstorm93]

Blizzard conditions were verified in parts of southern New England (https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201601240604-KBOX-NOUS41-PNSBOX). I haven't seen anything verified in New Jersey or New York, though.

 

NY/NJ saw the worst of the blizzard conditions, with JFK seeing 9 consecutive hours and Newark seeing 6.

 

 

 

[Rjay]

NY/NJ saw the worst of the blizzard conditions, with JFK seeing 9 consecutive hours and Newark seeing 6.

Thanks for posting that. I remember checking a bunch of the obs during the storm and seeing blizzard conditions for at least 5 hours in a row at some of them.

[Dark Star]

Thanks for posting that. I remember checking a bunch of the obs during the storm and seeing blizzard conditions for at least 5 hours in a row at some of them.

So why does the title of the diagram say "Near Blizzard Conditions"?  Doesn't  an actual blizzard need a period of 3 consecutive hours of the average wind speed of at least 30 mph?  Its either a blizzard or a snowstorm, not a near blizzard.  This diagram is not "official".

[Morris]

So why does the title of the diagram say "Near Blizzard Conditions"? Doesn't an actual blizzard need a period of 3 consecutive hours of the average wind speed of at least 30 mph? Its either a blizzard or a snowstorm, not a near blizzard. This diagram is not "official".

I think I saw that it needs to be frequent gusts to 30 mph.

[Superstorm93]

So why does the title of the diagram say "Near Blizzard Conditions"? Doesn't an actual blizzard need a period of 3 consecutive hours of the average wind speed of at least 30 mph? Its either a blizzard or a snowstorm, not a near blizzard. This diagram is not "official".

Look at the description in the bottom right. Those are the criteria that needed to be met to show up. What you are thinking of is the criteria for a Blizzard Warning, which is completely different than a blizzard observation. Greg Carbin is a GIS legend and on the SPC team as a lead met, so I think the map is pretty telling.

Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk

[Rjay]

So why does the title of the diagram say "Near Blizzard Conditions"? Doesn't an actual blizzard need a period of 3 consecutive hours of the average wind speed of at least 30 mph? Its either a blizzard or a snowstorm, not a near blizzard. This diagram is not "official".

The new criteria also includes frequent winds gusts of at least 35 mph. I saw this at JFK and I believe a few other stations (I can't recall which) for around 5 straight hours or more when I checked during the storm. Also I saw a couple stations that fell below blizzard criteria for an hour after recording 3 hours in a row and then observed blizzard conditions again for 3 hours. I even posted the link when it occured.

Edit: I looked up the obs again from JFK.

7-1pm. At 2pm wind gust is missing. Then again at 3-5 pm. I don see proof in this link that JFK observed blizzard conditions for 9 hours in a row since it's missing a wind gust reading at 2pm (1:51pm).

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KJFK/2016/1/23/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Jamaica&req_state=NY&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=11430&reqdb.magic=2&reqdb.wmo=99999

Feel free to look up more stations. It'd be interest to look at.

[Chinook]

Kocin posted his preliminary NESIS rating. I saw this as a link from a TWC web page.

 

https://www.facebook.com/pkocin/posts/10209735608610184?pnref=story

 

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/january-2016-snowstorm-was-category-4-event

[ag3]

LGA had gusts past 30mph for hours.

[andyhb]

Official NESIS rating is #4 all time (7.66), also it is the first Cat 4 on the scale since Jan 2005.

 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/nesis

[ag3]

The new criteria also includes frequent winds gusts of at least 35 mph. I saw this at JFK and I believe a few other stations (I can't recall which) for around 5 straight hours or more when I checked during the storm. Also I saw a couple stations that fell below blizzard criteria for an hour after recording 3 hours in a row and then observed blizzard conditions again for 3 hours. I even posted the link when it occured.

Edit: I looked up the obs again from JFK.

7-1pm. At 2pm wind gust is missing. Then again at 3-5 pm. I don see proof in this link that JFK observed blizzard conditions for 9 hours in a row since it's missing a wind gust reading at 2pm (1:51pm).

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KJFK/2016/1/23/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Jamaica&req_state=NY&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=11430&reqdb.magic=2&reqdb.wmo=99999

Feel free to look up more stations. It'd be interest to look at.

 

Almost positive LGA had several hours with winds above 35mph.

[ag3]

New official Nesis rankings. Jan. 2016 finishes ahead of PD2 now:

 

New rankings:

 

#1: March 1993: Nesis 5- 13.20

#2: Blizzard of 1996: Nesis 5- 11.78

#3: March 1960: Nesis 4- 8.77

#4: Jan. 2016: Nesis 4- 7.66

#5: PD2 2003: Nesis 4- 7.50

[psv88]

The new criteria also includes frequent winds gusts of at least 35 mph. I saw this at JFK and I believe a few other stations (I can't recall which) for around 5 straight hours or more when I checked during the storm. Also I saw a couple stations that fell below blizzard criteria for an hour after recording 3 hours in a row and then observed blizzard conditions again for 3 hours. I even posted the link when it occured.

Edit: I looked up the obs again from JFK.

7-1pm. At 2pm wind gust is missing. Then again at 3-5 pm. I don see proof in this link that JFK observed blizzard conditions for 9 hours in a row since it's missing a wind gust reading at 2pm (1:51pm).

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KJFK/2016/1/23/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Jamaica&req_state=NY&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=11430&reqdb.magic=2&reqdb.wmo=99999

Feel free to look up more stations. It'd be interest to look at.

 

Islip had blizzard conditions for hours. It gusted to 54 with sustained winds over 30.

[ag3]

[psv88]

 

What a horrendous map, embarrassing. 

 

NWS Upton officially recorded 18 inches of snow, and that map has them in the 4-10 range. 

 

The lowest snowfall total anywhere on LI was 15 inches out in Southampton. 

 

Just awful.