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Lessons Learned - what we can learn from the Jan 22/23 snowstorm/blizzard


tarheelwx

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As usual, temps in CAD regions were a bit colder than models showed, even close to the event.

Never underestimate the warm nose. It has been underplayed many times I the last few years, and we should have seen it coming.

Euro took the lead on a big ticket storm.

Should have cut the precip in half in dry slot prone areas.

TW

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Trust radar/satellite trends over HRRR with mesoscale bands. Probably obvious, but I had my hope up too high last evening for additional 4 inches of snow.

 

Don't underestimate upsloping in US-74 corridor of Foothills. They got a bit more than I was expecting.

 

Also, Boone don't necessary get more snow than Asheville automatically. They didn't get as much from main event as AVL, but they caught up thanks to NWF snow.

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Don't trust HRRR, showed  Asheville would get 4-6 inches of snow last night and I think I got 1/2 inch, maybe so was a little let down but I can't complain with 11 inches where I live, Great Storm for us in the Southern and Central Mtns.  North of us did not do as well where as usually they score big.

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Euro picked it up early and held it pretty well for the basic system. Cut qpf in half.

 

NAM correctly identified the warm nose. However it overdid it. Remember how large an area was predicted to have zr? We ended up with not as strong a warm nose so it was shallower and we got all that ip instead. Still the NAM picked up the pattern.

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Euro picked it up early and held it pretty well for the basic system. Cut qpf in half.

NAM correctly identified the warm nose. However it overdid it. Remember how large an area was predicted to have zr? We ended up with not as strong a warm nose so it was shallower and we got all that ip instead. Still the NAM picked up the pattern.

NAM also busted way too warm on surface temps

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Euro when it matches it's ens 120 out is still in charge. I'll be paying attn to nam MIDLEVELS 24 hrs on in from now on. Qpf was about half of what was advertised for triad northern foothills. But it wasn't gulf thunderstorms robbing, it's typical in miller Bs. The old carolina split, even if this one happened futher south in a strong nino, should have remeber ed this old rule of thumb. Only disapointment I had was the almost non existent front end thump. Might had flakes for 10 mins before going straight sleet. Nam caught it and I chose to write off

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Now on I trust radar not short rage models (They Lie every storm)  I know sometimes precip breaks out overhead which radar can't show. But when there is big holes, broken up radar returns, it's real and don't fill back in most of the time........ And as already been mentioned a Coastal it worthless west of Winston-Salem 99.9% of the time............. 

 

The biggest thing I've learned is if you want BIG SNOWS you gotta move father north than NC! Closer to the coast to get the Atlantic moisture feed, but high enough latitude that you have the cold temperatures! Fact is big snows are very rare in the south just don't happen much..........  Most of the time outside of the mountains I consider a 3-6 inch storm is a big storm for us...... We do better with a good overrunning event, which seems to never happen anymore? Anybody know why that seems to never happen anymore??   I don't like the looks of the pattern breaking down this late in the game. the MJO is forecasted to go into a very warm phase for Feb. Just hope it's wrong!

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