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1-20-16 Winter Storm


1234snow

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12z Euro EPS control run gives northern middle Tennessee generally 3 inches on Wednesday.  Generally around 2 inches for areas just south of northern middle Tennessee and generally the two inch line is from far northwest TN to southeast TN (just north of Chattanooga).  Lesser amounts as you get into northeast TN on the control, but still around 1.5 to 2 inches. 

The 12z EPS mean also generally agrees, though has lesser total amounts (1.5-2.5 inches shown) in generally the same areas and same orientation as the control (which at this stage it's to be expected to give the same general look)

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MRX AFD regarding this storm:

 

 

 

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT FOR THE MOST PART...ALTHOUGH IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY WITH WEDNESDAY SYSTEM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVERALL. SHOULD BE DRY AND COLD
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WITH A
WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY. WILL BE
PLENTY OF COLD AND DRY AIR OVER THE AREA INITIALLY...AND MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW MUCH OF A WARM NOSE DEVELOPS ALOFT WITH THE NAM MUCH
MORE AGGRESSIVE. GIVEN THAT IT IS STILL MORE THAN 36 HOURS
OUT...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR MORE MODEL FLUCTUATIONS.
HOWEVER...DOES APPEAR THAT A WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SNOW AND SLEET POSSIBLY MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY SOUTH. PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER. WILL MENTION
IN HWO FOR NOW.

 

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SREF Plumes have slowly ticked up each run for TRI. Went from half an inch at 3z, 1 inch on 9z, 1.5 on 15z. 15z has all members showing snow for TRI (lowest at .25 with several big dogs between 2 to 3).

 

Knox has been steady at around half an inch. Crossville steady at around an inch. Nashville steady at around half an inch.

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I think this one looks better the further west you are since it will be weakening as it approaches. I am hopeful but wary still. I can remember a system like this a couple of years ago that had wide spread agreement on 1-3 inches, WWA were in place and everything, then it died out as it got to Nashville and we barely had a passing flurry.

 

I guess it's just jitters over it ever snowing during certain years.

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I think this one looks better the further west you are since it will be weakening as it approaches. I am hopeful but wary still. I can remember a system like this a couple of years ago that had wide spread agreement on 1-3 inches, WWA were in place and everything, then it died out as it got to Nashville and we barely had a passing flurry.

 

I guess it's just jitters over it ever snowing during certain years.

I can agree with this statement.  I really think Nashville proper and points north look good to go for 1-3 inches Wednesday.  Further east, relying on a system hanging together is something that could easily bust.  Time will tell, hope we can also score a couple of inches.  John, I do feel better about your chances than KTRI's.  Good luck.

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I think this one looks better the further west you are since it will be weakening as it approaches. I am hopeful but wary still. I can remember a system like this a couple of years ago that had wide spread agreement on 1-3 inches, WWA were in place and everything, then it died out as it got to Nashville and we barely had a passing flurry.

 

I guess it's just jitters over it ever snowing during certain years.

I remember that I think!  Major let down.  I also think I remember one back in early 2000's of similar origin and trajectory where we were forecast a dusting and no advisories placed then ended up with 3 inches and not just local anomaly but widespread.  These can be tricky.  I'm really surprised MRX put out snow totals already, especially when in their AFD mention model fluctuations and 36 more hours to go yet.   

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I think this one looks better the further west you are since it will be weakening as it approaches. I am hopeful but wary still. I can remember a system like this a couple of years ago that had wide spread agreement on 1-3 inches, WWA were in place and everything, then it died out as it got to Nashville and we barely had a passing flurry.

I guess it's just jitters over it ever snowing during certain years.

When the local guys, especially David Aldrich, says 1-3 for East Tennessee,then I'm no longer nervous.

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When the local guys, especially David Aldrich, says 1-3 for East Tennessee,then I'm no longer nervous.

I'm not as trusting of Aldrich as you are. He pretty much seems to look at a model clown map and then throw it out there a lot of times. That's what led him to the 9th to 14th snow forecast recently that he busted on. The Euro had just shown the big snow event that it only kept briefly and the GFS was showing it too. But it was 8-10 days out at the time.

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When the local guys, especially David Aldrich, says 1-3 for East Tennessee,then I'm no longer nervous.

I don't trust local mets so much.  Nothing against them really, they just feel more personality centric (meat puppets if you will) and less WX centric.  My same issue with The Weather Channel, although to The Weather Channels credit they have made some improvements over the last few years.

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I'm not as trusting of Aldrich as you are. He pretty much seems to look at a model clown map and then throw it out there a lot of times. That's what led him to the 9th to 14th snow forecast recently that he busted on. The Euro had just shown the big snow event that it only kept briefly and the GFS was showing it too. But it was 8-10 days out at the time.

You can use that example if you want, but I can do the same in his favor. In January 2014 3 days before a storm, he was the only guy saying 2-5 inches for the Central Valley. The other mets dismissed the storm and said that there would only be a dusting for Knoxville. When the day came, I looked outside in South Knoxville and saw 4 inches of snow on the ground.

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I think sleet and zr will keep us under 1" total down here. The GFS has a good thump of wet snow to start, but I'm not sure that I buy the cold air hanging on for that long. If the temps are correct it will be a traffic nightmare until late afternoon Wednesday. ZR washes pretreating brine off roadways.

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Atlanta also has a different standard for Winter Storm criteria. The 2 inches of snow alone in such a short time might be enough there. On the other hand, I've seen 8 inch totals only warrant a winter weather advisory in Michigan and Maine.

Yeah true, I'm originally from Michigan, can remember many a childhood storm of many inches be absolutely no issue.  Though haven't lived there since I was 10 years old.

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