ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 RGEM is pretty interesting for BOS and scooter up to Cape Ann and of course back to CC where maybe 2-4" falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Gfs is nice for eastern areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 We snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 GFS looks good for eastern area.....1-2.....even more on Plymouth county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 GFS is near warning criteria for GHG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 GFS is def advisory snow for BOS and a lot of E MA inside of 495ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Looks like it trys to develop a mesolow off cape Ann like the RGEM does. Lift goes through the roof just offshore PSM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 We eat desert first and have to wait for the weekend for the main course. Looks like tonight and tomorrow could really surprise people. 1-4 would be may range for mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I would consider 3 inches a big win here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Definitely gonna be a mesoscale thing where the trough sets up. Mildly interesting here. Would be nice for even an inch or two. I've been googling this and can't find it, but is there a "NORLUN checklist" like there has been developed for WINDEX? I keep finding literature on identifying what a NORLUN event looks like/is ... but the operational side is elusive. In any case, with the main baroclinic low escaping E and lingering deeper troughing moving over head, that should impose some instability axis (particularly considering how cold that mid troposphere is going to be). I find it interesting that the machines that crunch the GFS numbers recently were tripled in there computational capacity/speeds... jesus! I didn't know there was a unit called a 'petaflop'... From NOAA's web -release, it sounds like Hurricane Sandy was a goodly bit of the impetus for the upgrades.. Ironic, when we were talking about Sandy some tend days to even two weeks before it happened, purely by skill of teleconnector modes, which were derived from the .8 petaflop machines. I just hope they dense up the initialization grids to go along with - otherwise, what's the point. I guess ur interpolations result in a finer mesh, which is good - but correct me if I am wrong: wouldn't it be also equally massive as an upgrade if we are actually giving the machine the data to crunch? what do I know. I digress... Anyway, the GFS is bit more obvious looking for NORLUN... It has light to moderate banded snows 24 to 36 hours parked just abeam of Cape Anne, which could be an attempt to actually snow along the NH/MA border... Plus, those sort of axis will pivot south given time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Looks like it trys to develop a mesolow off cape Ann like the RGEM does. Lift goes through the roof just offshore PSM This/that happened once back in the mid 2000's prior to eastern becoming american. You could actually see the tight gyre on sat - it almost looked like a "polar low" ...folks may want to google those - pretty fascinating read actually... It moved south through the Harbor with a band of quick moderate snow for eastern zones. Can't recall the date on such an obscure fleeting event of inconsequential but ... I also saw something similar take place over the Great Lakes, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 This has that classic look to me of 3-5 for BOS down to PYM..less for the Cape with mixing initially 2-4 as far west as ORH and 1-2 west of there to the river. Something like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Snow sky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Gfs is nice for eastern areas Looks like flurries for W MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I've been googling this and can't find it, but is there a "NORLUN checklist" like there has been developed for WINDEX? I keep finding literature on identifying what a NORLUN event looks like/is ... but the operational side is elusive. Try looking at the original paper...it has the checklist of parameters for a NORLUN...they use the NGM model in the original paper, but this can be adjusted for modern day guidance...the physical mechanisms of course aren't different. http://www.mattnoyes.net/files/norlun-1.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I find it interesting that the machines that crunch the GFS numbers recently were tripled in there computational capacity/speeds... jesus! I didn't know there was a unit called a 'petaflop'... From NOAA's web -release, it sounds like Hurricane Sandy was a goodly bit of the impetus for that upgrades.. Ironic, when we were talking about Sand some tend days to even two weeks before it happened, purely by skill of teleconnector modes, which were derived from the .8 petaflop machines. I just hope the dense up the initialization grids to go along with - otherwise, what's the point. I guess ur interpolations result in a finer mesh, which is good - but correct me if I am wrong: wouldn't it be also equally massive as an upgrade if we are actually giving the machine the data to crunch? what do I know. I digress... Anyway, the GFS is bit more obvious looking for NORLUN... It has light to moderate banded snows 24 to 36 hours parked just abeam of Cape Anne, which could be an attempt to actually snow along the NH/MA border... Plus, those sort of axis will pivot south given time. Three petaflops is pretty solid. I believe the most powerful machines are around 30 petaflops, but the first exaflop machine is in the works in one of the national labs. As I understand it, to get highly accurate weather predictions at a range of two weeks would require zettaflop machines, which, at the current rate of growth, should show up around around 2030 (not even considering the advent of functional quantum computing). Referring back to the NORLUN, I don't know if there's a checklist per se, but perhaps you could find the old maps from the 1/7/11 event in CT and compare? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Snow sky Mid level clouds with bright sun burning thru? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Snow sky Kevin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 BTV wrf brings .25" QPF into PYM county up close to my hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Looks like a coating here, more east. 1-2 seems overly optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Snow sky Kevin How much snow have you received on Cape Cod, Ma with the strong sun in late Jan burning thru a mid level deck? How many feet would you say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 What does this have anything to do with a snow sky? It's snowing in those clouds, just because the sun is shining through them does not make it not a snow sky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Looks like a coating here, more east. 1-2 seems overly optimistic. The HRRR looks good for about 0.5" for most of the state. Would double my biggest event of the year...so I'd take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Three petaflops is pretty solid. I believe the most powerful machines are around 30 petaflops, but the first exaflop machine is in the works in one of the national labs. As I understand it, to get highly accurate weather predictions at a range of two weeks would require zettaflop machines, which, at the current rate of growth, should show up around around 2030 (not even considering the advent of functional quantum computing). Referring back to the NORLUN, I don't know if there's a checklist per se, but perhaps you could find the old maps from the 1/7/11 event in CT and compare? I was kidding about not knowing what a petaflop is/was ( ) but yeah..interesting stuff. I think when quantum computing comes along we're going to see a lot of changes, some not all good but we won't go into that here. I think though that in a 100 years, (think, 'man will never fly an airplane - that's impossible!'), we'll see the first attempt at weather controls. Actually...maybe it would even be before a hundred years - see Moore's Law on technological advancement. ...which ever comes first. Getting to where the quantum scales can be precisely predicted at exotically tight tolerances is the first step toward using some sort of electromagnetism to 'instruct' momentum of particles. Once that happens? Less like science fiction and more like, "What does the weather-modification-matrix have in store for the week." It's funny...I was always taught that they could never really predict the weather out to ...pick a long lead, because of the irrepressible force of fractals in nature imposing emergent properties. Those cannot be predicted - the way it went. But, maybe "prediction" would no longer even be necessary, because prediction would become how ever we turn the knob. OT sorry - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Try looking at the original paper...it has the checklist of parameters for a NORLUN...they use the NGM model in the original paper, but this can be adjusted for modern day guidance...the physical mechanisms of course aren't different. http://www.mattnoyes.net/files/norlun-1.pdf yeah, I have seen that ... but thought perhaps something more refined was in play. ...meaning, I didn't want to tediously translate the defunct NGM to ...what, the NAM? egh... The NAM sucks - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Here's what I have based on the NGM: It does seem that we meet a lot of these over eastern sections; but, in using the NAM's sigma level - must wonder if that is just as risky as using the NAM in general... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Here's what I have based on the NGM: norlun.jpg It does seem that we meet a lot of these over eastern sections; but, in using the NAM's sigma level - must wonder if that is just as risky as using the NAM in general... Weir tweeted this out. 1-2" likely with brief +SN, but isol hir amounts? Where? maybe PYM or Cape Cod area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Some of the hi res models have a nice area ORH and even close to Nrn CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Those old T levels represent about T1=BL and T5=H8. We use TTs a lot now for instability wrt these WINDEX type events...usually >40. Of course very little of the TT layer falls within T1-T5 seeing that it's H85-H5, but TTs represent the mid-level instability better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Some of the hi res models have a nice area ORH and even close to Nrn CT. RPM liked ORH for a period tonight...dropped like 3-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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