Bsudweather Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I think alot of folks has got a much better chance at seeing some accumulating snowfall mid next week than sundays event. One reason being if we do have a storm to verify we will already have arctic air in place when that moves through. Cause its going to be pretty cold first half of next week. The 12z GFS is spitting out 2-3" amounts for GA/SC and more for NW NC. So that potential may be much more fun. We already around the 5 day point for that potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 3,2,1 lock! That's a clipper, it'll work out great for us in the upstate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 SE trend will save us lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 3,2,1 lock! That's a clipper, it'll work out great for us in the upstate! Looks right now like a pretty strong one. I've seen many a times strong clippers give us 2-3" if they dig far enough south. We will see how future models runs play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Except it's not a clipper. It comes from the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 Except it's not a clipper. It comes from the Pacific. When I first saw this I thought it was a clipper, but then I kept telling myself the same thing you just said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Except it's not a clipper. It comes from the Pacific. Miller B? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Miller B? I just glanced, but didn't notice a transfer of any kind. Looks like a shortwave that simply never digs as we lose the influence of ridging out west. It also looks to shear out as it comes east, which is why it doesn't look as good further east as it does in central TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 I just glanced, but didn't notice a transfer of any kind. Looks like a shortwave that simply never digs as we lose the influence of ridging out west. It also looks to shear out as it comes east, which is why it doesn't look as good further east as it does in central TN Yea be nice to see another Low pop up so it has that to transfer energy to. If we could get that setup with this next week we would be in business! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I just glanced, but didn't notice a transfer of any kind. Looks like a shortwave that simply never digs as we lose the influence of ridging out west. It also looks to shear out as it comes east, which is why it doesn't look as good further east as it does in central TN I'm sure your area will do better than here. I will take whatever I can get at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 That wave has been there for several runs. This is just the first one that did not kill it too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 If no energy transfer I think we need that Low just a tad further SW to have a better chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Too early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 There is a pretty big signal for a juicy Miller A storm next mid and late week. Still a long way off, but good to see it look a lot like the 0z euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 There is a pretty big signal for a juicy Miller A storm next mid and late week. Still a long way off, but good to see it look a lot like the 0z euro ensembles.yes sir! Still a nice signal on the gefs 500mb mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I don't think this pays out for anyone but Tennessee and the mountains. Only one individual GEFS member seems to be excited about snowfall prospects for almost all the Carolinas outside the far western areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 There is a pretty big signal for a juicy Miller A storm next mid and late week. Still a long way off, but good to see it look a lot like the 0z euro ensembles. Looks more miller B with a big CAD signature. Just looks at the dew points ahead of the storm: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=01&model_dd=15&model_init_hh=12&fhour=126¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false THe precip just dies away as it moves east but definitely a good setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I don't think this pays out for anyone but Tennessee and the mountains. Only one individual GEFS member seems to be excited about snowfall prospects for almost all the Carolinas outside the far western areas. that might be a good thing if its not keying in on that wave. rather focus on miller A possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 I don't think this pays out for anyone but Tennessee and the mountains. Only one individual GEFS member seems to be excited about snowfall prospects for almost all the Carolinas outside the far western areas. Plenty of time for it to trend better. The cold will definitely be in place. 2m temps pretty frigid around here Wed morning in the Low to mid 20s. 850s could go a little colder but even those are cold enough to support wintry precip. We just need to get a good storm and that's very doable I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Looks more miller B with a big CAD signature. Just looks at the dew points ahead of the storm: THe precip just dies away as it moves east but definitely a good setup. Doesn't look that way to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Is this a thread for midweek next week or next weekend? I'm confused. I thought the weekend was the next threat? This seems too early....but hey I know we're desperate. #nonsnowyninosupernino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 Is this a thread for midweek next week or next weekend? I'm confused. I thought the weekend was the next threat? This seems too early....but hey I know we're desperate. #nonsnowyninosupernino. Its for the mid next week threat. 19th-20th. we're within 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Doesn't look that way to me. gefs ensemble mean 72 hour precip at 192 01152016.png We'll it currently just dies away so maybe your right. I always consider a miller B setup to have one storm move up west of the mountains and then the energy transfers to a storm off the coast. If there is a CAD those areas can stay in a cold air source. A miller A keeps its primary low and forces areas to the east into a warm air source. So no CAD; or a lose of CAD as the storm moves north of our areas. I think if we're going to score with this system we need the miller B; and honestly I think it would make since with the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Its for the mid next week threat. 19th-20th. we're within 5 days. I added "mid-week" to the thread title for anyone who is calendar challenged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 That wave needs to dig. These are the kinds of temps and that is the kind of HP placement that Cold Rain likes right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 I added "mid-week" to the thread title for anyone who is calendar challenged. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 From how things look now, what should I be looking for trend wise to get some snow in northeast SC near the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 That wave needs to dig. These are the kinds of temps and that is the kind of HP placement that Cold Rain likes right there. Low track equals moisture starved though......we need it 300 miles further south....2M dews are in the single digits over the Carolinas so its really cold and dry.... Next Fri/Sat gonna be the one we all freak on....with cold in place after 4-5 way below normal days leading into it..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Low track equals moisture starved though......we need it 300 miles further south....2M dews are in the single digits over the Carolinas so its really cold and dry.... Next Fri/Sat gonna be the one we all freak on....with cold in place after 4-5 way below normal days leading into it..... Yeah, it needs to get south big time and spin something up while the cold is here. How's next weekend looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Yeah, it needs to get south big time and spin something up while the cold is here. How's next weekend looking? I don't see how that storm goes that far North. Too much cold and blocking, but that is just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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