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LaNina


jaxjagman

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El Nino Forecast Pictures at SIO Climate Research.png

Not so much weak with Scripps

Data in Tabular Format for Nino 3.4 region (anomalies in degrees-C)

MAM 2016 1.32

AMJ 2016 0.67

MJJ 2016 0.02

JJA 2016 -0.59

JAS 2016 -1.15

ASO 2016 -1.62

SON 2016 -2.04

OND 2016 -2.36

NDJ 2016/2017 -2.64

Who knows what will happen. The current El Nino has been less than textbook and that would be record territory for a LA Nina.

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The interesting thing is that the last major Severe Weather Outbreak that happened across the entire state of Tennessee was in April of 2011, which was a La Nina year.

Yeah,next winter start following the TNI index into spring.I had a good paper but don't know where i put on the board, if i find it i'll post it here again.

 

http://www.earthmagazine.org/article/trans-nino-years-could-foster-tornado-outbreaks

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/tni.data

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The CFSv2 initialization problem in the tropical Atlantic is noted in the story above. CFS had tropical Atlantic SSTs too cold and it likely impacted the forecast for both oceans. NOAA is correcting it today but it may take until later Tuesday for the full effects of the correction to take hold. Output is a compilation of the several runs, almost like a moving average, so it will take several runs to resolve. We will see if the CFSv2 Nina v Nino forecast changes...

 

UPDATE: Well it did change. Conceptual understanding of subsurface data beyond just models supports Nina. Jax feel free to change thread title to probable La Nina.

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My personal chips are on La Nina. Thankfully nobody at work has asked for a call yet. We are focused on summer which I believe will be hot. Still have a lot of lingering heat in the atmosphere to work through. Plus Nino to Nina can favor hot.

 

I like the subsurface sea temperature chart several posts above. Note lots of colder than normal water lurks beneath. Total ocean heat content is off markedly though surface remains quite warm. A return to normal trade winds should promote the upwelling needed to favor La Nina. Winter, much will depend on both the Nina question and the PDO question. Combination of the two matters.

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