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Mountain West Discussion


Chinook

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Strong winds to develop west of I-25. So we need a Winter Weather Advisory for this? What??

 

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PMTHIS EVENING TO NOON MST TUESDAY.* TIMING...STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING CAUSING  BLOWING SNOW. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE SLOWLY TUESDAY  AFTERNOON.* WIND/VISIBILITY...STRONG WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 35  MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH POSSIBLE
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El Nino snowfall in October to May following an active monsoon in Albuquerque averages 16.7" at the ABQ airport, including 9.2" in our snowiest month (whatever month ends up snowiest). So I do think NM/AZ/Southern UT&CO/West TX get bombed with snow at some point, it's just not for a little while. I lean towards big, cold storms very late in the season, like late March for the SW.

 

-We know the snowiest month at the ABQ airport can't be November (since the airport only got non-accumulating snow, although most of the city did get a little bit of accumulation). 

- Snowiest month in Albuquerque is highly unlikely to be April.

- If the AMO is not positive for the period from Nov-Apr but ends up Neutral or Negative, that snowiest month is also unlikely to be December. AMO seems to be neutral/heading neutral and there aren't any big storms on the horizon for us through ~Dec 10.

- I don't think it's real common to get the "snowiest" month as the same calendar month two years in a row. So I don't lean towards February being our top month, especially after almost 10 inches at the airport in Feb 2015 which is huge for Albuquerque.

 

That leaves...January & March. El Ninos this strong in the fall/winter tend to have cold Springs in the SW. So I think the SW gets a slightly above avg core winter (DJF) for snowfall, offset by a flukishly cold snowstorm/blizzard sometime between Feb 20 - Apr 20. CA, UT, NV, OR should do fairly well in Dec - I don't think eastern CO, the interior NW, or the SW get a whole lot in Dec though. Would love to be wrong though. I think most of the West is pretty cold mid-Feb-mid-May, and pretty wet/white too. I have the East getting a couple nasty storms in late Jan-mid Feb (not all snow though) before we get our main fun.

 

For the SW in El Nino years, Spring almost always "feels" cold. In Albuquerque, 15/26 El Nino Springs (MAM) are more than 2F below the 1932-2015 average for high temperatures. Another 6/26 El Nino Springs were "colder anomalies" than the preceding winter, i.e. +1F in Spring instead of +3F in Winter, or -1F in Spring instead of +1F in Winter, so 21/26 Springs are either cold, or have colder anomalies than the winter.

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Composite of strong and very strong El Nino March years. This includes March 1992, which was in a moderate El Nino. Standardized precipitation anomalies. The Southwest was very wet and north central Colorado climate division was reasonably wet. This means there's a chance that north central Colorado could get --the big storm-- in March 2016.

 

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I prefer to use 1940-41, 65-66 was pretty strong but it peaked earlier than this Nino, and it was down to a moderate El Nino by Dec 65-Feb 66. Phil Klotzbach had ONI at 1.9 in DJF 1940-41 which is probably fairly close to this event. December is certainly in the low ~2s right?

 

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/616358915303837696

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cd67.0.163.53.338.14.53.27.prcp.png

 

 

cd67.0.163.53.338.14.54.46.prcp.png

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Hey, I guess this is the thread for me now...just moved to Denver last week. Been enjoying the quiet weather as we finalize a living situation and get familiar with the area. Definitely looking forward to some real weather out here after 27 years in Central PA.

 

Welcome.  Judging from the sheer number of us that are new transplants, it is no wonder home prices are spiking so quickly :)

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Hey, I guess this is the thread for me now...just moved to Denver last week. Been enjoying the quiet weather as we finalize a living situation and get familiar with the area. Definitely looking forward to some real weather out here after 27 years in Central PA.

Welcome, PennMan!

Transplant from Nashville --> Denver almost 4 years ago myself. You'll love it - though the Rockies do have quite a crazy impact on short-term weather forecasting.

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Welcome. Judging from the sheer number of us that are new transplants, it is no wonder home prices are spiking so quickly :)

Thanks. Yeah, haven't met too many CO natives out here so far, lots of transplants.

Welcome, PennMan!

Transplant from Nashville --> Denver almost 4 years ago myself. You'll love it - though the Rockies do have quite a crazy impact on short-term weather forecasting.

Already loving it for sure. I'll have to brush up on typical weather patterns out here, gonna be a little different than PA. The cloud formations along the front range have been pretty cool so far.

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Thanks. Yeah, haven't met too many CO natives out here so far, lots of transplants.

Already loving it for sure. I'll have to brush up on typical weather patterns out here, gonna be a little different than PA. The cloud formations along the front range have been pretty cool so far.

I assume you are talking about yesterday afternoon in particular. There was a crazy line of what looked like lenticular clouds around 2pm or so.

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The AMO looks like it is going to be positive (on average) from November to April. November had a much higher AMO value in 2015 than 2014, high enough to the point that I'd put the odds of the AMO being neutral from Nov-Apr (like it was last year) at ~30%, with odds at a positive AMO at ~70%.

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.data

 

I'm a bit concerned about how the pattern has been timed so far - Albuquerque doesn't get much snow in January when the AMO is positive from Nov-Apr because it tends to fall in December, but so far it's been quiet in Dec (bone dry). Maybe late December we get slammed? That being said...AMO+ El Ninos are good for March, so my call before of March being the big month in the SW may still be true. Warm AMO El Ninos tend to be 2F cooler than normal in the SW.

 

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Yeah we were driving back from Fairplay around that time, could see them the whole drive.

You get used to wild clouds and/or 80+ mile visibility on most days here. We are spoiled. We moved here 5+ years ago and I feel like a townie already. If it weren't for all the people ;) CO would be an idyllic place. Where in Central PA? We lived in the Lehigh Valley for 5 years in the mid 90s. Winters there were actually pretty fun from time to time, though kind of short.

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You get used to wild clouds and/or 80+ mile visibility on most days here. We are spoiled. We moved here 5+ years ago and I feel like a townie already. If it weren't for all the people ;) CO would be an idyllic place. Where in Central PA? We lived in the Lehigh Valley for 5 years in the mid 90s. Winters there were actually pretty fun from time to time, though kind of short.

Grew up north of Lancaster in Lebanon County. Lived in the State College area from August 2007 until last week. So I'm enjoying living in the vicinity of a big city.

Had some pretty wicked winds last night on the drive from Boulder to Golden...easily among the strongest I've experienced in my life, not that that's saying much.

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Grew up north of Lancaster in Lebanon County. Lived in the State College area from August 2007 until last week. So I'm enjoying living in the vicinity of a big city.

Had some pretty wicked winds last night on the drive from Boulder to Golden...easily among the strongest I've experienced in my life, not that that's saying much.

Yup, the Chinook can be really strong sometimes, and the gustiness will really get you, especially driving parallel to the ranges. Last night at 9:30 it was 39 at my house and at 9:50 it was 53. Holy downsloping Batman!

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