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Winter 2015-16

Mr Bob

By Mr Bob,
in Tennessee Valley

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Mr Bob

Mr Bob

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I know everyone is focused on the "storm" on Presidents Day...if you had not noticed the Euro weeklies, you should take a look...Winter will be back potentially with a vengeance along about the 25th or so....another potentially prolonged cold period into the first half of March per the model...Don't wear yourself out too much yet! 

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted

I know everyone is focused on the "storm" on Presidents Day...if you had not noticed the Euro weeklies, you should take a look...Winter will be back potentially with a vengeance along about the 25th or so....another potentially prolonged cold period into the first half of March per the model...Don't wear yourself out too much yet! 

Thanks Bob, always appreciate your input.

 

I have been noticing most modeling ensemble packages being INSISTENT on building a massive ridge out west clear to the pole.  Do you think we finally see a period of blocking in the Atlantic or is that going to continue to be like finding a unicorn?

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

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Posted

I know everyone is focused on the "storm" on Presidents Day...if you had not noticed the Euro weeklies, you should take a look...Winter will be back potentially with a vengeance along about the 25th or so....another potentially prolonged cold period into the first half of March per the model...Don't wear yourself out too much yet! 

 

Mr. Bob, bringing the cold hammer this morning.  For those new to the board, Mr. Bob is about as good as it gets and does not hype.  Great met. 

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weathertree4u

weathertree4u

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I know everyone is focused on the "storm" on Presidents Day...if you had not noticed the Euro weeklies, you should take a look...Winter will be back potentially with a vengeance along about the 25th or so....another potentially prolonged cold period into the first half of March per the model...Don't wear yourself out too much yet! 

Yes, that looks great, although, I am getting really close to having Spring fever, especially after whatever happens Sunday night into Monday!

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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

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Back to my post on #741 the euro continues to build a ridge building into East Asia but is faster than the original map on todays 12z.This map is off the 850mb coming up but the question now is if there is moisture returns and where everything is placed,but a severe threat still seems plausible.

 

post-3027-0-35960100-1455337042_thumb.pn

 

After this ,colder air invades the Valley

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

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Back to my post on #741 the euro continues to build a ridge building into East Asia but is faster than the original map on todays 12z.This map is off the 850mb coming up but the question now is if there is moisture returns and where everything is placed,but a severe threat still seems plausible.

 

attachicon.gifNumerical Model Prediction Tropical Tidbits.png

 

After this ,colder air invades the Valley

 

Jax, hoping we don't get severe!  Ha!  I know you enjoy it.  And think about this, storms just a while back and now snow.  Thunder in the mountains, and it snows w/in three weeks.  Hey, two more days in the avatar.  Manning still looking good...

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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

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Jax, hoping we don't get severe!  Ha!  I know you enjoy it.  And think about this, storms just a while back and now snow.  Thunder in the mountains, and it snows w/in three weeks.  Hey, two more days in the avatar.  Manning still looking good...

i'M pulling for you guys.It's going to be tough for us this system with  a sw flow.I wont be a  :blahblah:  Good luck.Never liked this system for us or i'd be posting up and down..lol

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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

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ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 130834
   SPC AC 130834

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0234 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

   VALID 161200Z - 211200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE
   NC COAST EARLY TUESDAY...SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH
   THE DAY 4-8 PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE ERN U.S. THROUGH
   DAY 5 WITH GENERALLY OFFSHORE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE GULF. FOR DAYS
   6-7 PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE REGIME WITH A STRONG
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AND OH
   VALLEY DAY 7. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MOISTURE RETURN IN
   ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE INSUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS.

 

Better look today.Least we're seeing signs of a trough on the esem's,,other than that..blah

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John1122

John1122

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Our next potentially wintery system seems to be brewing around day 8-9. The GFS/Euro/CMC are all showing some type of southern low track.

 

The GFS looks like it's going to build a winner right here with the big 1042 H dropping in with -20 degree temps and a low over Texas.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_34.png

 

Until it gets really really weird 18 hours after this.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_37.png

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

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KTRI has now recorded just under 17" of snow for the winter.  That is far past anything I expected during a strong Nino.  I suspect the weak solar cycle has something to do w/ this.  In the past decade, we even have had a snow winter during a strong Nina if I remember correctly.  Next winter, the odds that the Nino will be weakly on either side of neutral might be increasing.  Now, having lived in Knoxville during the last strong Nino...I can tell you it is tough down there to get it to snow.  I live in Kingsport now and latitude makes a huge difference.  But February is a great time for the central TN Valley to score w/ snow, so that is in their favor.  Plus, Ninos in general have winters that are back loaded...

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JayCee

JayCee

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KTRI has now recorded just under 17" of snow for the winter.  That is far past anything I expected during a strong Nino.  I suspect the weak solar cycle has something to do w/ this.  In the past decade, we even have had a snow winter during a strong Nina if I remember correctly.  Next winter, the odds that the Nino will be weakly on either side of neutral might be increasing.  Now, having lived in Knoxville during the last strong Nino...I can tell you it is tough down there to get it to snow.  I live in Kingsport now and latitude makes a huge difference.  But February is a great time for the central TN Valley to score w/ snow, so that is in their favor.  Plus, Ninos in general have winters that are back loaded...

 

It's also been a great winter for southern Kentucky, and even parts of middle Tennessee.   The last two years have been good to the central valley of east TN.  So, this may be our year that's a dud. 

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

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GFS is still showing a good look. LP taking a Miller A track and a 1033 high in the plains dropping south and another 1038 high over upstate New York. 

 

It doesn't show much of anything for here but that pattern would produce here.

The euro control at 12z has a far east TN and southern apps snow (8-10 inches) between 8.5 and 9.5 days.  I counted 10/51 members that had over 6 inches in some part of the state.  Fairly robust signal for the potential that period might hold.  Carry on.......

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jdrenken

jdrenken

Posted
Posted

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL

ACUS48 KWNS 130834

SPC AC 130834

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0234 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

VALID 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE

NC COAST EARLY TUESDAY...SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH

THE DAY 4-8 PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE ERN U.S. THROUGH

DAY 5 WITH GENERALLY OFFSHORE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE GULF. FOR DAYS

6-7 PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE REGIME WITH A STRONG

SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AND OH

VALLEY DAY 7. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MOISTURE RETURN IN

ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE INSUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS.

Better look today.Least we're seeing signs of a trough on the esem's,,other than that..blah

They were stand offish regarding today's Deep South severe weather also.

Sent from my S50 using Tapatalk

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weathertree4u

weathertree4u

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KTRI has now recorded just under 17" of snow for the winter. That is far past anything I expected during a strong Nino. I suspect the weak solar cycle has something to do w/ this. In the past decade, we even have had a snow winter during a strong Nina if I remember correctly. Next winter, the odds that the Nino will be weakly on either side of neutral might be increasing. Now, having lived in Knoxville during the last strong Nino...I can tell you it is tough down there to get it to snow. I live in Kingsport now and latitude makes a huge difference. But February is a great time for the central TN Valley to score w/ snow, so that is in their favor. Plus, Ninos in general have winters that are back loaded...

Each winter of last several, aside from 11/12, have had some good snows. I tend to believe like JB that we are in a period of colder snowier times. At the end of the Dalton Minimum we had things like Washington crossing Potomac's ice clogged water, while the founders of Nashville walked across the Cumberland River. I hate to think what would happen if we saw those conditions in modern times.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

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Euro has a Carolina crusher on that day 8 storm. Which isn't far off where we want it to be at this range. Every storm this year has came north/west vs their early model runs.

6z GFS has potential as well. Yep. We want any cyclogenesis way to our southeast in the LR. The Euro weeklies show what I presume to be a parade of storms across the southeast. Not saying they are winter storms, but seemed to have plenty of energy.

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