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December 2015 temperature forecast contest, year end reports


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I'm posting the thread a bit early to get out in front of what may be a quiet week on the forum, hope you enjoy your Thanksgiving and remember to enter next Sunday or Monday, can't extend the deadline with the contest this close ... and it's the usual nine forecasts using F deg temperature anomalies from 1981-2010 normals. A good month for new entrants as we run seasonal as well as the annual contest but the annual format here is calendar year not four season, so this is the end of our 2015 contest.

 

Predict the December anomalies for

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH _____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

Late penalties begin after 06z December 1st, and will run 1% every 2h for 36h then 1% per hour through to expiry on the 5th.

 

Good luck and thanks for beating the crap out of me and Normal all year. :) At least I got my revenge on Normal in November, I think. November provisional scores are posted, they are all pretty high with one or two exceptions. Consensus leads the pack. Normal brings up the rear. Western contest a different story.

 

 

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Table of Forecasts -- December 2015

 

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

SnoSki14 ________________ +8.5 _ +9.5 _ +8.6 ___ +4.8 _ +1.9 _ +1.0 _____ +1.4 _ +0.6 _ +0.4

Debeaches _______________+6.4 _ +7.2 _ +8.8 ___ +5.5 _ +1.3 _ --2.4 _____ +2.2 _ --1.3 _ +1.3

Damage in Tolland _________+5.2 _ +5.0 _ +4.5 ___ +5.5 _ +2.2 _ +0.8 _____ +1.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.7

DonSutherland.1 __________ +4.8 _ +5.1 _ +5.0 ___ +6.0 _ +3.1 _ --0.3 _____ +1.4 _ +0.2 _ +1.2

Maxim ___________________+4.5 _ +5.5 _ +6.0 ___ +7.0 _ +2.0 _ --1.5 _____ +1.5 _ --1.0 _ +1.0

Rjay ____________________ +4.0 _ +4.7 _ +4.7 ___ +4.7 _ +1.5 _ --1.7 ______ 0.0 _ --1.5 _ +2.0 

OHweather _______________+4.0 _ +4.5 _ +4.0 ___ +3.0 _ --1.0 _ --1.5 _____ --1.0 _ --2.0 _ +0.7

Roger Smith ______________+3.7 _ +4.5 _ +4.2 ___ +5.5 _ +2.5 _ --1.0 _____ --0.5 _ --1.5 _ +1.8

Mallow __________________ +3.7 _ +3.9 _ +4.5 ___ +5.3 _ +3.3 _ +1.1 _____ --1.5 _ --0.9 _ --1.3

Isotherm _________________ +3.6 _ +4.1 _ +4.5 ___ +5.6 _ +2.7 _ --0.2 _____ +1.0 _ --1.2 _ +1.4

dmillz25 _________________ +3.5 _ +4.0 _ +4.3 ___ +5.0 _ +2.0 _ --1.0 _____ +0.5 _ --1.2 _ +2.7

ksammut _________________+3.4 _ +4.7 _ +4.8 ___ +5.3 _ +2.7 _ +1.3 _____ +0.1 _ +3.1 _ +4.0

Midlo Snow Maker _________ +3.4 _ +3.9 _ +3.5 ___ +2.2 _ +1.8 _ --1.3 _____ +0.8 _ --2.5 _ --1.1

 

Consensus _______________+3.4 _ +3.9 _ +4.1 ___ +4.3 _ +1.8 _ --0.3 _____ +0.6 _ --1.0 _ +1.4

 

wxallannj ________________ +3.2 _ +3.5 _ +4.1 ___ +3.1 _ +2.1 _ +1.2 _____ +1.5 _ +0.9 _ +2.8

hudsonvalley21 ___________ +3.1 _ +3.4 _ +3.3 ___ +3.2 _ +2.7 _ +0.5 _____ +0.7 _ --0.3 _ +0.8

RodneyS ________________ +2.9 _ +4.0 _ +4.5 ___ +4.3 _ +2.5 __ 0.0 _____ +0.3 _ +1.4 _ +2.7

nzucker _________________  +2.9 _ +3.8 _ +4.0 ___ +5.7 _ +1.6 _ --1.9 _____--2,0 _ --2,3 _ --0.4

Tom ____________________ +2.6 _ +1.9 _ +1.9 ___ +1.5 _ --0.5 _ --0.9 _____ +1.1 _ --1.2 _ +2.0

BKViking ________________ +2.5 _ +2.7 _ +2.8 ___ +1.8 _ --1.1 _ --1.1 _____ +0.2 _ --0.5 _ +1.9

blazess556 ______________ +2.4 _ +2.7 _ +2.9 ___ +1.6 _ --1.1 _ --1.5 _____ +0.5 _ --0.6 _ +1.1

Stebo ___________________+2.1 _ +2.4 _ +2.7 ___ +1.4 _ --1.3 _ --2.1 _____ +0.4 _ --1.0 _ +1.4

SD _____________________ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 ___ +3.0 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 ______ 0.0 _ --1.0 _ +1.0

snow88 __________________+1.5 _ +2.1 _ +2.8 ___ +3.0 _ +1.9 _ +2.0 _____ +1.0 _ +0.4 _ +0.7

Tenman Johnson __________+0.5 _ +0.5 _ +0.5 ___ +0.5 _ +0.5 _ +0.5

 ..

Normal ___________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ______ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

..

wxdude64 ________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ --0.7 _ --0.5 _ +0.8 _____ --2.1 _ --2.0 _ --3.0

_________________________________________________________________

 

25 entries (24 western) and Consensus is 13th ranked for first six, mean of 12th and 13th for western.

 

Welcome to four new entrants and OHweather who rejoined us last month. Will adjust consensus if we get more entries, I think all the regulars from 2015 are here, all on time ... have a look tomorrow at the November thread for updated final scoring.

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First look ahead from day five (and day eight) anomalies ....

 

______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

_________ (5d) _________ +3.6__ +6.5__ +4.7 ___ +5.0__ +3.7__ --4.5 ___ +3.6__ --0.2__ +5.5

_________ (8d) _________ +3.7__ +6.3__ +5.7 ___ +5.8__ +4.9__ --2.9 ___ +7.0__ +2.3__ +7.4

 

________ (p15d) ________ +8.5__ +9.5__ +9.0 ___ +9.9__ +9.5__ +5.5 ___ +4.5__ +2.0__ +5.5

 

________ (p27d) ________ +6.1__ +6.7__ +6.3 ___ +5.0__ +5.2__ +2.5 ___ +1.5__ +0.5__ +2.2

 

Updated snowfall totals:

 

ORD _ 12.5 and DEN _ 11.3

 

(9th) _ Went a couple of days beyond the end of the GFS run as it was pretty obvious that a warm spell was developing for the east on day 16 which happens to be Christmas Day. End of month anomalies look set to be in the +5 to +7 range despite a few colder days before Christmas, at some point the day 15 figures may increase above +10 then fall back, recover some. The west looks considerably colder than it has been so far but not so cold that it would lose all of the positive anomalies built up. Very wet at SEA with over 3" of rain past two days and severe local flooding.

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