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November 12-13 Severe Potential


rolltide_130

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This is sort of a continuation of the thread for the same system being discussed in the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes thread. A very strong trough is expected to dig into the Great Plains on Wednesday and eventually push east on Thursday. Looks like the warm sector could be more impressive across Dixie Alley compared to the Ohio Valley, but the trough may be too far to the northwest. Time will tell.  

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This is sort of a continuation of the thread for the same system being discussed in the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes thread. A very strong trough is expected to dig into the Great Plains on Wednesday and eventually push east on Thursday. Looks like the warm sector could be more impressive across Dixie Alley compared to the Ohio Valley, but the trough may be too far to the northwest. Time will tell.

rolltide...Thanks for starting this thread. Always glad to see some new thread-starters. Keep us updated on what you see. Jax is a severe wx guy. So, is Jeff. I am more of a winter wx guy. But I watch these threads closely now as my house has a fresh roof and new gutters thanks to baseball size hail a year ago!
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DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0358 AM CST SAT NOV 07 2015

   VALID 101200Z - 151200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
   UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN CA AND MOVE THIS SYSTEM EWD INTO THE
   DESERT SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY/DAY 4. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
   POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IN
   THE FOUR CORNER REGION. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
   OCCUR IN THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE EXIT REGION
   OF A POWERFUL MID-LEVEL JET SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS THREAT
   WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM
   AND MOISTURE RETURN. THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE IN
   AGREEMENT...MOVING THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS THE
   SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 5 WITH THE SYSTEM BECOMING
   NEGATIVELY-TILTED. AT THE SFC...A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW IS FORECAST
   TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
   WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS
   AND INTO THE MS VALLEY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
   DURING THE DAY ALONG THE FRONT. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET RESPONSE
   COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F AND IMPRESSIVE SHEAR
   PROFILES COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR
   TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE. WILL INTRODUCE A 15 PERCENT CONTOUR FOR
   PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS EWD INTO THE LOWER TO MID MS
   VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS MOVE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY
   NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING/DAY 6.
   THUNDERSTORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY IN THE APPALACHIAN MTNS AND ALONG THE ERN
   SEABOARD AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD ACROSS THE REGION. ON
   FRIDAY/DAY 7 AND SATURDAY/DAY 8...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
   DOMINANT THE SERN THIRD OF THE NATION WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

   ..BROYLES.. 11/07/2015

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Meet Me in Saint Louis. More than a Broadway number? Models are struggling to put together the event probably based on low clouds and junk drizzle. However it is a dynamic system. Love to wake up Wednesday in STL and then decide from there, but that will not be the case for me. WF may surge north but instability will be better in the Mid-South - still with nice speed shear down toward MEM. Perhaps low top near WF and sfc low. Maybe we will get a good desk chase, lol!

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