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November Banter Southeast Style


Cold Rain

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It's interesting to look at the forecast discussion for the 2011-12 winter.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/20248-winter-2011-2012/

Strangely enough, I actually enjoyed that winter. We didn't have even one threat of snow all winter so i never got my hopes up. I'd take a winter like 2011-12 over a winter like 2014-15 any day.

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i work 2nd shift so i don't get home until close to midnight.

That's how I felt when I worked 3rd shift at the motel back at the beach. Got off work at 7:00AM. Of course, the time change always messed up the bookkeeper -- never knowing whether to pay me for 7 hours, or 9 hours, or 8 hours. Computerized timeclock changed at 2:00 AM in the spring and fall. They finally settled on the fact that I lost an hour in the spring, worked an extra hour in the fall (based on the timestamp), so instead of having to pay one hour overtime a year, they finally gave me 8 hours each time change. Saved the motel a whopping $5.50 every year!!

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This is about the craziest weather pattern I've ever seen. Cloudy weather for 10+ consecutive days, low temps running 20+ above normal for an entire week, extreme heat and humidity in Florida. And yet somehow all of this is going to change and we will have a great winter with lots of snow ?

Go back and look at last years November Banter. We were having record cold and snow and everybody was excited about how great the winter was going to be. It did finally get good -- in February.

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Go back and look at last years November Banter. We were having record cold and snow and everybody was excited about how great the winter was going to be. It did finally get good -- in February.

Yeah it got good in some areas. Not everywhere though. Why should I believe this winter will be any different than last ?

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Yeah it got good in some areas. Not everywhere though. Why should I believe this winter will be any different than last ?

Well the overall pattern is different(...el nino). Of course this is no guarantee of snow. We need blocking to occur and to occur at the right time (as usual). There are some favorable signs for blocking like ocean temps and the Siberian snow cover theory. Plus a few weenie things like:

1) We're due for some blocking

2) The warm November = cold winter idea      

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Well the overall pattern is different(...el nino). Of course this is no guarantee of snow. We need blocking to occur and to occur at the right time (as usual). There are some favorable signs for blocking like ocean temps and the Siberian snow cover theory. Plus a few weenie things like:

1) We're due for some blocking

2) The warm November = cold winter idea

I'm having a Oct/Nov flashback to last year! Not quite as much hype of cold and snow, but close! But Cohen and the Eurasia snowcover!? We know what analogs are good for! Just waiting on something to track, only 3 months to go! :(
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This is about the craziest weather pattern I've ever seen. Cloudy weather for 10+ consecutive days, low temps running 20+ above normal for an entire week, extreme heat and humidity in Florida. And yet somehow all of this is going to change and we will have a great winter with lots of snow ?

 

 

Go back and look at last years November Banter. We were having record cold and snow and everybody was excited about how great the winter was going to be. It did finally get good -- in February.

 

 

Yes, the warm weather now just means the rubber band will snap back when we head into winter. Everything runs in cycles. To make up for one extreme and to level things out, we often need the extreme opposite to happen down the road.

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Yes, the warm weather now just means the rubber band will snap back when we head into winter. Everything runs in cycles. To make up for one extreme and to level things out, we often need the extreme opposite to happen down the road.

what if this is a long cycle and the rubber band doesn't snap back until March ?
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what if this is a long cycle and the rubber band doesn't snap back until March ?

This would not only be improbable but also unheard of for any Nino as far as I know. Also, what is it with you trying to make this winter like '98 because of the Nino strength? No two Ninos are alike and this one is no exception.

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WRAL Elizabeth Gardner " the difference in highs between 79f and 58f is around 25f"

 

Sensationalized news!

I'm still cunfosed... Common core or old math, the difference is still 21, which is not 'around 25' unless they're like sitting in the same row at the movie theater.

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