HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Heres to the first synoptic rain event, hopefully soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Might as well go ahead and just add "part 1" to the thread title right now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Might as well go ahead and just add "part 1" to the thread title right now lol. Nah, record breaking winter for many, strong/super El Nino be damned. well, probably not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Nah, record breaking winter for many, strong/super El Nino be damned. well, probably not Do you honestly think that even if it WAS a record breaking winter that we would not get into part 2 of this thread? Come ON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Send active weather Signed active weather fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Leave it to Hoosier to break out the Nov. CFSv2 on October 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Leave it to Hoosier to break out the Nov. CFSv2 on October 1st. lol at the CFS. We are only a month in, but a warm Fall is so against strong Nino climo it isnt funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 lol at the CFS. We are only a month in, but a warm Fall is so against strong Nino climo it isnt funny. We are going to need a frigid November to erase the warm anomalies from September. I don't see October ending up to terribly cold. So a warmer than normal fall is a possibility. But agreed, I guess we are hell bent on going against climo the past 5 years lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 We are going to need a frigid November to erase the warm anomalies from September. I don't see October ending up to terribly cold. So a warmer than normal fall is a possibility. But agreed, I guess we are hell bent on going against climo the past 5 years lol. Oh Im sure Fall will end up warmer than normal due to September, but if the CFS is right it would be a torch Fall, not simply warmer than normal. Of course, the CFS had October blazing until a week ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Oh Im sure Fall will end up warmer than normal due to September, but if the CFS is right it would be a torch Fall, not simply warmer than normal. Of course, the CFS had October blazing until a week ago.Ah the weather always keeps us on our toes! That's what I love. We are in an interesting time. Was reading a stat, that Joaquin is the first Cat 4 hurricane to track through the Bahamas in October since 1866!Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Oh Im sure Fall will end up warmer than normal due to September, but if the CFS is right it would be a torch Fall, not simply warmer than normal. Of course, the CFS had October blazing until a week ago. Of course I was messing around by posting the November CFS, but even if Fall ends up much warmer than average, I'm not really sure if it's a sign of something for winter. As you know, the sample size for strong Ninos is not very large, with only a handful of cases since 1950 and maybe like a dozen (give or take) if you want to go well back into the 1800s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Of course I was messing around by posting the November CFS, but even if Fall ends up much warmer than average, I'm not really sure if it's a sign of something for winter. As you know, the sample size for strong Ninos is not very large, with only a handful of cases since 1950 and maybe like a dozen (give or take) if you want to go well back into the 1800s. Oh I know. Im basically messing around as well. I have absolutely no idea that kind of winter we will have. But the theory that strong nino = torch is based almost entirely on 1982-83 & 1997-98, so when there is something thats already a stark contrast from those two years, I just enjoy pointing that out . And you are correct, sample size is ridiculously small. There have been 11 strong Nino winters since 1877 and just 5 since 1950. And from that VERY small sample size, the signal for a cold Fall is much more than the signal for a mild winter. But we are talking 11 out of 139 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I've been getting so much snow lately, it would be nice to not get buried by another 1'+ event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 It would be nice to have a deep low swing through and bring record setting early snow. Oct 12th 2006 has that distinction, that's only 10 days off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Oh I know. Im basically messing around as well. I have absolutely no idea that kind of winter we will have. But the theory that strong nino = torch is based almost entirely on 1982-83 & 1997-98, so when there is something thats already a stark contrast from those two years, I just enjoy pointing that out . And you are correct, sample size is ridiculously small. There have been 11 strong Nino winters since 1877 and just 5 since 1950. And from that VERY small sample size, the signal for a cold Fall is much more than the signal for a mild winter. But we are talking 11 out of 139 years. It's based on a littttlllee more than that. Analogs have their uses (albiet in a gradually diminishing capacity, I would argue), but the interplay between ENSO and tropical forcing and how it relates to the mid-latitudes is well represented in scientific literature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I've been getting so much snow lately, it would be nice to not get buried by another 1'+ event Good luck with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 It's based on a littttlllee more than that. Analogs have their uses (albiet in a gradually diminishing capacity, I would argue), but the interplay between ENSO and tropical forcing and how it relates to the mid-latitudes is well represented in scientific literature.I was talking about the assumption by SOME that strong nino is automatic torch winter, which it is absolutely not. I definitely know there's more,in fact I've said all along that ENSO is just one piece of the puzzle.Generally the chances increase for a colder than normal winter in the south and a milder than normal winter in the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Good luck with that Alek's backyard is the new Madison/Dubuque/Mt. Geos hot spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 I've been getting so much snow lately, it would be nice to not get buried by another 1'+ event lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Alek's backyard is the new Madison/Dubuque/Mt. Geos hot spot. I think we have another I-88 winter coming. The Cyclone, SchaumburgStormer, Tsnow, Alek, share the wealth special. Then the Detroit boys can get in on the action too. Going to be a bad year for our southern IL/ KY and Ohio friends. (based on no science. Half gut call, half trolling call ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 The Madison hot spot is so 7 years ago lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 I think we have another I-88 winter coming. The Cyclone, SchaumburgStormer, Tsnow, Alek, share the wealth special. Then the Detroit boys can get in on the action too. Going to be a bad year for our southern IL/ KY and Ohio friends. (based on no science. Half gut call, half trolling call ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Bonfire lit, charcoal heating up, Couzie full and hoodie on....alllll goooood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Bonfire lit, charcoal heating up, Couzie full and hoodie on....alllll goooood That's my kinda night Gilbert. Cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 Just think about it...With the milder and slower starts to winter, some of us could be waiting another 3 months for a good snow. Just adding my thoughts to the negativity thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sokolow Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 I see ALEK has switched his HAARP machine to "autumn" Do any of y'all have an opinion on either Adam Sobel's Storm Surge or Super Storm by Kathryn Miles? Was feeling a yen to read up on Sandy as the anniversary rolls around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 The reports out of SC are insane... biblical rains. A ton of 15-25 inch amounts so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 It's based on a littttlllee more than that. Analogs have their uses (albiet in a gradually diminishing capacity, I would argue), but the interplay between ENSO and tropical forcing and how it relates to the mid-latitudes is well represented in scientific literature. Yet many keep ignoring the one huge obvious and thus the affects of climate change on this stuff. See this for a example. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46803-two-distinct-influences-of-arctic-warming-on-cold-winters-over-north-america-and-east-asia/ Not saying it will be cold but how many of you screaming warm has even considered that? Be honest? Just going with what you said is gonna get you in hot water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 5, 2015 Author Share Posted October 5, 2015 Nice sunny day, only a few high clouds. Best Climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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