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Joaquin/ULL inland flooding threat


BullCityWx

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Living in the South, we retain through the years in our Southern psyche certain legends and things resulting from landfalling hurricanes in past decades. They are awakened and revived every time this sort of thing happens, and it is always fascinating to look back and ponder. One thing that is still evident, and very much in the present, are the tree limbs and trunks wedged up into the concrete framework of the I-40 bridge over the Haw River. They are up there because Hurricane Fran rose the Haw 35 feet and put them there. I have seen them with my own eyes while kayaking about 30 feet under them.

 

Incredible. I would have to think if the CMC/GFS were correct and that's a big IF the effects would be just as devastating if not more so than Fran due to the ULL in play. We would be talking about one of the worst storms of all time in NC....I hope someone disagrees with me on this but in terms of flooding the whole time I have lived in NC I've never seen a widespread flood living around Kings Mountain and Charlotte. 

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Living in the South, we retain through the years in our Southern psyche certain legends and things resulting from landfalling hurricanes in past decades. They are awakened and revived every time this sort of thing happens, and it is always fascinating to look back and ponder. One thing that is still evident, and very much in the present, are the tree limbs and trunks wedged up into the concrete framework of the I-40 bridge over the Haw River. They are up there because Hurricane Fran rose the Haw 35 feet and put them there. I have seen them with my own eyes while kayaking about 30 feet under them, last spring. The power of water is truly incredible

 

 

you and I are in the same neck of the woods.....if we get 10-12 inches on top of what this past week dropped....the 40 and 54 bridges over the Haw will be 10 feet under water, minimum.  The Haw will be 1/2 mile wide and 60 feet deep for a few days.  Say goodbye to the Challenge too :(

 

I love storms, like all of us; but this has the potential to be really catastrophic for NC....lots of deaths, billions and billions in damage

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you and I are in the same neck of the woods.....if we get 10-12 inches on top of what this past week dropped....the 40 and 54 bridges over the Haw will be 10 feet under water, minimum.  The Haw will be 1/2 mile wide and 60 feet deep for a few days.  Say goodbye to the Challenge too :(

 

I love storms, like all of us; but this has the potential to be really catastrophic for NC....lots of deaths, billions and billions in damage

Well if it happens like the models show it, we will have one heck of a good story for the grandkids 20 years from now.

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Looking at the major rivers in central and eastern NC show they are actually running lower than I was expecting but the rain has been gradual and the ground was dry so these things have helped us out a lot....when Floyd hit the rivers where already at flood stage and thats not the case here. Still flash flooding will be a huge threat and out west where the rivers are running higher could see historic flooding.

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Looking at the major rivers in central and eastern NC show they are actually running lower than I was expecting but the rain has been gradual and the ground was dry so these things have helped us out a lot....when Floyd hit the rivers where already at flood stage and thats not the case here. Still flash flooding will be a huge threat and out west where the rivers are running higher could see historic flooding.

 

 

if this thing barfs out 15-20 inches of rain across NC; it won't matter....that will create massive flooding all by itself.  The waterlogging will only enhance it

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The dynamics are definitely there for some extreme QPF in the southeast. Even if Joaquin goes out to sea, the synoptic environment is favorable for baroclinic development. Likewise, the CAD that looks to develop this evening into tomorrow will be particularly favorable for isentropic ascent over parts of the region given the forecasted on-shore flow and high PW values.

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The dynamics are definitely there for some extreme QPF in the southeast. Even if Joaquin goes out to sea, the synoptic environment is favorable for baroclinic development. Likewise, the CAD that looks to develop this evening into tomorrow will be particularly favorable for isentropic ascent over parts of the region given the forecasted on-shore flow and high PW values.

Winds picking up now, front passing through! Looking forward to the wedge and cooler air! It was 86 today! Heavy t-storm to boot!

Can't buy a drop of rain for 3 months, now have a heavy storm over mby, basically the only storm in town , and gonna drop a quick .50 inch +, and 5-15 more inches on the way! Winning in the wrong way! :(

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Winds picking up now, front passing through! Looking forward to the wedge and cooler air! It was 86 today! Heavy t-storm to boot!

Can't buy a drop of rain for 3 months, now have a heavy storm over mby, basically the only storm in town , and gonna drop a quick .50 inch +, and 5-15 more inches on the way! Winning in the wrong way! :(

Don't worry. There's no way we get that much rain here.

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mcd0537.gif

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0537NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1002 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEASTERN SC/CENTRAL TO EASTERN NC/FARSOUTHEASTERN VA...  CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE  VALID 010201Z - 010631Z SUMMARY...SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION CONSISTING OF MULTIPLE CELLMERGERS HAS LED TO SOME LOCAL HEAVY RAINFALL WITH HOURLY RATESEXCEEDING 1.50 INCHES PER RECENT OBSERVATIONS. GIVEN FAIRLYUNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES...FLASH FLOODINGWILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION.DISCUSSION...THE 01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A SOUTHWEST TONORTHEAST ORIENTED BOUNDARY WHICH WAS NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY INNATURE. A GRADUAL MOTION INLAND IS EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARYRETURNS AS A SLOW-MOVING WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURECONTINUES TO OVERRUN THIS BOUNDARY WITH 2 TO 2.25 INCH PWATSDEPICTED VIA GPS DATA AND LOCAL 00Z RAOBS. IN PARTICULAR...THE 00ZMHX SOUNDING SHOWED IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH 2.13 INCHPWATS COUPLED WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOWANCHORING MUCH OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THE INSTABILITY PROFILE WASTALL/SKINNY IN NATURE WHICH SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASHFLOODING. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE MPD AREA SHOWED ACTIVECONVECTION WITH MULTIPLE CELL MERGERS NOTED. THESE HAVE ALREADYSPAWNED NUMEROUS FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS WITH SUCH ISSUES LIKELYPERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ONE QUESTION IS HOW MUCHINSTABILITY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION. THE 01Z RAP SUGGESTEDTHE GREATEST BUOYANCY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST. SO EXPECT THERAINFALL RATES TO COME DOWN AS THE CONVECTION SPREADS FARTHERINLAND AWAY FROM THE BETTER INSTABILITY. PLEASE VIEW THE LATESTSPE FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE SATELLITE PERSPECTIVE. WILLRE-ASSESS THE SITUATION UPON EXPIRATION.
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Well worded discussion from RAH this morning...

FOR NOW... WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST WHICH DEPICTS POTENTIALLY VERY SIGNIFICANT AND EVEN FLOODING RAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PINPOINTING THE HIGHEST QPF IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE... THEREFORE A GENERAL BROADBRUSH APPROACH THIS FAR OUT WOULD YIELD QPF ON THE ORDER OF 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCAL 5 TO 8+ INCHES POSSIBLE. THE MAIN TIME FRAME FOR THE FLOODING HAZARD APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND IF THE ENTRAINMENT OF THE HURRICANE WEST INTO OUR REGION OCCURS... OBVIOUSLY SOME HISTORIC FLOODING WOULD BE LIKELY... ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND. ALL SCENERIES ARE STILL ON THE TABLE... AND ALL WE CAN DO AT THIS POINT IS STATE THE UNCERTAIN FORECAST... BUT BE PREPARED FOR A WORSE CASE SCENARIO FOR FLOODING AND WIND IMPACTS (SUCH AS DOWNED TREES...LOSS OF POWER...ETC.). 
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06z GFS only gives RDU 2.77" over the next week.

 

Local forecast gives us 3 periods of 1"-2" (tonight through tomorrow night), bookended by 1/4"-1/2".

Yeah, that seems to be very understated.  I wonder if they are being conservative at this point until the exact course of Joaquin is detrmined.  The International Bluegrass Festival in Raleigh this weekend is still on.

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06z GFS only gives RDU 2.77" over the next week.

 

Local forecast gives us 3 periods of 1"-2" (tonight through tomorrow night), bookended by 1/4"-1/2".

The weather weenie in me would love to see huge rain amounts; but the logic part of myself says 2.77 or less would be best. This isn't snow so I'll sleep well if we don't get historic flooding.  

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Not every day you see the wpc forecasting 17 inches of rain without a landfalling tropical system.  The wording in their discussion this morning is quite extraordinary. They don't throw around words like "off the charts",  "historic",  and "unheard of" very often or lightly. Someone already posted parts of it but here it is again.

 

To think..the euro shows double this in general..scary stuff to be honest.

DAYS 2/3......EASTERN U.S....DESPITE THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY WITH TROPICAL ENTITY JOAQUIN AND ITSPOSSIBLE IMPACT WITH THE EAST COAST... AS WPC FOLLOWED THE LATESTOFFICIAL FCST FROM NHC... A RATHER LARGE SCALE SEPARATE HEAVY RAINEVENT APPEARS VERY LIKELY TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST/SRN MID-ATLREGION INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS ON FRI AND SAT.   SHORT WAVE DYNAMICS OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY WILL DROP INTO THESERN US ON THURS TO BEGIN CLOSING OFF A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL MID TOUPPER LOW. THIS LARGE SCALE FEATURE WILL MOVE LITTLE INTO THEUPCOMING WEEKEND... AS A MAMMOTH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTICBUILDS WESTWARD INTO THE NRN MID-ATL REGION AND EVENTUALLY MERGESWITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE CENTER MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST. THUS ACUT-OFF LOW WILL REMAIN DETACHED FROM THE WESTERLIES AND ANAWFULLY IMPRESSIVE EARLY SEASON FALL SURFACE RIDGE WEDGES DOWNACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.THUS THE COMBINATION OF DEEP ERLY ONSHORE FLOW AND THE INITIALSURGE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE... PWS 2 STANDARD DEV ABOVE AVG ANDSOMEWHAT RELATED TO JOAQUIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/VAINTO THE APPALACHIAN SPINE. THIS IS THE GENERAL AREA FROM THEDELMARVA SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS THAT WPC FOCUSED FOR QPF ANDEXCESSIVE RAINS ON FRI. THE MOST PROBLEMATIC AREA WHERE BACKINGFLOW AND POSSIBLE SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY IS FROM SCINTO WRN NC/SWRN VA. THIS WILL BE JUST EAST OF AN INVERTED SURFACETROUGH DEVELOPING AND IN A ZONE OF VERY LIGHT STEERING FLOW AIDEDBY POSSIBLE OROGRAPHICS.THEN ON SAT... THE SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER ERNCANADA AND SURFACE LOW FROM COASTAL SC INTO NERN GA WILL BEEXTREMELY INTENSE WITH GFS AND ECMWF ANOMALIES SUGGESTING 850MBMOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES OFF THE CHARTS OR 5 STANDARD DEV ABOVE AVGOR GREATER. THIS WILL SETUP A NARROW ZONE OF INTENSE RAINFALL JUSTAHEAD OF THE NEG TILT OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THUS FROM SC INTO NERNGA/WRN NC AND NERN TN/SWRN KY IS A CONCERN FOR RATHER LARGE SCALEEXCESSIVE RAINS AND UNHEARD OF AMOUNTS IN RECENT MEMORY.WPC BASICALLY WENT WITH A BLEND/COMPROMISE OF THE LATEST .25 DEGECMWF AND GFS BOTH DAYS FOR QPF AMOUNTS AND EXCESSIVE RAIN FCSTS.RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON FRI REACHING POSSIBLE MAX AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 6INCHES AND ON SAT 5 TO 8 INCHES... WHICH COULD RESULT INPOTENTIALLY HISTORIC AMOUNTS. 

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The weather weenie in me would love to see huge rain amounts; but the logic part of myself says 2.77 or less would be best. This isn't snow so I'll sleep well if we don't get historic flooding.

For central NC we are in the 4-6" range on the Euro/EPS. We miss the 10" range by 50 or so miles so a lot can change. We have been dodging stuff like this which is good, who wants 15-20" of rain.

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For central NC we are in the 4-6" range on the Euro/EPS. We miss the 10" range by 50 or so miles so a lot can change. We have been dodging stuff like this which is good, who wants 15-20" of rain.

 

I guess it's going to have to rain a lot harder to get that here. All I have been having so far is misting rain, which is really annoying. 

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