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Tropical Storm Joaquin Impact/Thoughts/Discussion


jrodd321

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Western based models are coming in even farther West. Appearing NJ will avoid a direct hit. Consensus is for landfall around Cape Hatteras though there is still some wiggle room and time for that to change.

Sent from my LG-V410

Big winds from Joaquin. SNJ has 60 mph gusts on the GFS, and I think parts of PA get in on that wind too. Seems like we're finally going in to some more interesting weather.

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Euro is not only ots it is completely out to lunch. Last week or so the Euro has been horrendous. Im not buying it.

Sent from my LG-V410

Either the storm escapes out to sea or turns inland. No middle ground on this. The pendulum is swinging toward a east coast hit but the Op Euro solution is still possible. Although I will point the ensemble mean is much further west than the operational. 

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after going through sandy don't want to see the jersey shore see another hit, I am thinking if there is landfall might be closer to Lewes De up to Cape May NJ, about 60-100 miles south of Sandy

 

Gee, thanks! Seriously now folks. I don't wish this on anyone, but some place on the east coast sure looks likely. Just a brush offshore would be OK; still could use more rain. About 1.6" yesterday & today. It amazes me how many people NOW want to know what I think!

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With the ULL and possible Ida resurgence, I'd be hesitant to call any solution likely at this juncture. Just too much in play still, and model error averages are 300-400 miles at this point in the game. While this solution would be better for the area, there would still likely be a bunch of rain and coastal tidal flooding as the models are all indicating one hell of an onshore flow for the next 5 days. Even the winds are 20-30 mph and stronger on the coast.

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